Feeling too confident, need some thoughts...

So with a limited set of games tonight three stand out as very strong plays.

Detroit -5.5-

They typically play very strong at home and have played an incredible schedule against tough competition.  Wright St is down 3 of their top 7 scorers, including their best overall player by far JT Yoho.  They've played two games without him and lost at home to Valpo by 10 and at Milwaukee by 26, failing to cover each by a wide margin. One of the other 3 injured guys went out in the beginning of their last game.

This screams to pound Detroit.  Am I missing something?

 

Army +5.5-

American is a very low scoring team who plays almost all games down to the wire.  They have only two wins all year by more than 4 points, home or away, and that's not going against great competition.  Compare that to Army who's played a much tougher schedule wins against Air Force, VMI and at USC.  Army also scores a lot of points so they can crawl back into the game if they get down at some point.

Again, why would we not hammer Army?  I see a lot of people on the board picking American so please share your rationale.

 

Oakland +2

This is the third game I like a lot but not to the extent of the previous 2.  Oakland plays well at home with wins over Green Bay and Valpo in recent weeks.  They did lose at Clev St a few weeks back but only by 4.  Two players who performed well in that game are likely out in this one.  Marlin Mason is questionable with illness and had 11 and 8 the first meeting and Artis Yates is out after having 14 points against them.

Again, what's the play for Clev St here?  Oakland seems like a very strong play.

 

Thoughts would be much appreciated before I hammer all three of these.

Thanks and BOL tonight! 

 

I lean Army & Oakland but like Wright St.  Wish it wasn't revenge spot for Det, but still feel it is a bad spot for them after playing two tough games as dogs.  Griffin is now probable for WSU and they played about as bad as possible last game. I like them to bounce back.

Nobody else has any comments about these games?  I hate feeling this confident because that usually means I'm missing something.  Really looking to get the devils advocate take on these games to make sure I'm not just seeing what I want to.

 

Thanks in advance!

Detroit in the 1H should be strong as they look for their new identity.

sparty last two look like the strong ones of the bunch. considering playing those especially army. Still a little hesitant on it though even though they played Duke and won at USC their SOS is still 338. USC's isn't even considered a good win because their RPI is 148. On top of that Army has had tons of bad losses: Bryant, Lafayette, Lehigh, navy, bucknell, and many of these games they were never in. So if you just look at records its very decieving. Thats why the line is 5.5 and not 3. American plays real good defense at home but like you said isn't really high scoring so its tough to go other direction. It's either Army or nothing for me despite all this. Like the complexion of the spread for them in this spot. American very inconsistent team as well.

I haven't been able to find anything to change my mind so I'm locking these plays in.  Risking most of the money I've made in the last month on these plays.

Detroit -6, 330=300

Detroit -3 Half, 220=200

Oakland +2.5, 220=200

Oakland ML, 150=187

Oakland 1Half +1.5,  220=200

Army +5.5, 275=250

Army +3, 230=200

Parlay Oakland +3/Army +5.5/Delaware St +12.5, 50=250

Parlay 1st HALF- Oak +1.5/Army +3/Detroit -3, 50=291

Also adding Syracuse/UNC Under 64.5 1st Half, 110=100

 

Here's to a big day!!