37-38-3 YTD. 1-1 Friday.
St Bonaventure/Duquesne - Under 129
Dukes are 306 in Adj Tempo and Bonnies 342. Both teams D’s have better efficiency than the the opposing Offense. Last 8 matchups I’ve tracked that met these criteria (Adj Tempo ranks between 300-364 and Efficiency matchup) have gone under the total.
Campbell/Towson Under - 131.5
Both teams coming off road losses 48 hours ago that went under. Both teams D efficiency much better than the opposing Offense Efficiency . Also very close to meeting the Tempo criteria noted above (but not quite) but I will still play this. KenPom has this one for 128 points so there is value here at 131.5.
Boston / American Under 128.5
Boston is 356/364 in Adj Tempo. American is 348/364. This is slower than a pub crawl that doesn’t leave the first pub. Under is hitting in this scenario at a ridiculous rate. American had a recent game against Lafayette that scored 118 total and this is a significantly slower tempo matchup than that example.
Florida -9.5 (-120)
Total mismatch at both ends. Florida has #4 Offense in Adj Efficiency and #8 D. FL has run through some great competition on the road (including Auburn). LSU has lost 7 of 9, and 5 of those 7 by double digits.
Presbyterian TT U 64.5
Radford Adj Tempo is 354/364 and Presb is 330/364. Neither team has much sampling in this type of matchup. Their first game did go over with Radford catching fire at end of 1H. The game total Under is in play here but more comfortable with Presbyterian going under on the road against a really gritty Radford team who will slow them down and force tough shots.
good luck
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