Posted:
#1
You know my philosophy by now, gets. We look for the un-sexy and underperforming. We look for upside and we fade downside. South Carolina has been playing outside of itself this tournament. On the season they are 237th in 3 point % and 299th in 2 point %. Against Baylor, however, they hit 50% of their two-pointers and 40% of their three-pointers. Against Duke, they hit well above their season average in the second half and scored 88 points, 65 of them in the second half. Against Marquette they scored 93 points, hitting over 60% of their two-pointers. The key to South Carolina's success has been forcing turnovers more than anything. They forced Marquette in a virtual home game into 18, Duke, who lacks a true point guard, into 18 and they forced Baylor into 16. Even the last time these two teams played, an 81-66 win for Florida, they forced Florida to commit 16 turnovers. Almost every time South Carolina played a team again in conference play, they failed to force as many turnovers as they did the first time around. Vs Georgia: the first time they forced 16, the second time 15. Vs Ole miss: the first time they forced 21, the second time 17. Vs Tennessee: the first time they forced 22, the second time 20. Vs Alabama the first time they forced 24, the second time 13. The two exceptions: against Florida they forced 16 both times, and against Miss State they forced 19 the first time and 20 the second time. So, teams generally improve with ball security when they face South Carolina again. And now we are giving Florida a third try. When they have the confidence of having beat this team soundly the last time they played. Their first matchup they lost 57-53, going 0/17 from behind the arc. The second time they won 81-66. Florida actually does a better job with ball security away from home and they seem to be less careless when the game is tighter. If this game is close, I like Florida to take advantage of its improvement in ball control and its superiority in free throws to secure the cover. At all events, I think Florida vastly improved in their rematch against South Carolina and I think they build on that by also improving in ball security. I think they have the edge in athleticism. They are statistically vastly superior in half court offense. South Carolina has been playing outside itself so far, but I think that run grounds to a halt tomorrow. I think Florida has too much offense, but also at least as good defense, for South Carolina to handle. Take Florida -3
0
should be going.
Good luck today JFan
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