Friday 12/21

November: 67-48 (+17.8 units)
December: 29-34 (-6.9 units)
Overall: 96-82 (+10.9 units)

Finally had a decent night hitting both plays. These next two days fit nicely into my situational wheelhouse with many of the favorites laying far too many points with Christmas right around the corner and most student bodies home for break.

Today:

Stanford -3 (1 unit)
Even putting aside the fact that Northwestern has little local support and a departed student body, this is a bad matchup for the Cats. Stanford is a totally different team with Aaron Bright in the lineup. He allows Randle to play at his natural off-guard position and is the most consistent shooter on the Cardinal roster. Since his return, Stanford has posted offensive outputs of 1.01, 1.09, and 1.18 PPP. Powell has emerged as a legitimate first-team PAC 12 candidate and can stretch the defense out to 18-20 feet while serving as the best athlete on the floor. He and Huestis will be a load inside for an NW frontline that can struggle with athletic interior players. For the 'Cats, losing Drew Crawford was a crushing blow. He's one of the better wing scorers in the country and created matchup problems all over the court. His injury has forced Carmody to go to mostly three-guard sets with Hearn, Demps, and Sobolewski. The freshman center Olah is a big, big body, but he'll be hard-pressed to deal with the high-flying Powell and Huestis. Stanford has already seen the Princeton offense this year (Denver) and does an excellent job of pressuring the perimeter. If Northwestern knocks down a bunch of threes - which is a possibility - they can pull this win out. I'm not banking on it, though, and feel Stanford's superior depth (10 guys) ultimately proves to be overwhelming.

Leans:
Montana -1, Fordham +16, Niagara-ND Over 140, Wagner +3.5

I'm also leaning towards Montana. Will Cherry is starting to get healthy and Montana owns Sac St in general. I'm still a little worried that Northern Arizona played them so close last time and Sac St is very experienced. What do you think about this game in terms of matchup? And I'm guessing the home court won't be much of a factor because this is a big sky game.

Agree on Cherry. If he's close to fully healthy, and it seems like he is close to it, then this Montana team is currently the most undervalued team in the country (ATS wise). Hands down.

As far as homecourt, if I were to rank Big Sky teams based on home/away performance over the last few years, it would look like this:

1) Northern Colorado
2) Portland State
3) Weber State
4) Montana
5) Northern Arizona
6) Everyone else

NoCo and Portland State are night-and-day at home versus road.. Montana has been a consistently great road team. I think they've only lost like a combined 8 or 9 road games in-conference the past three seasons and are basically unbeatable at home (18-0 last two seasons)

Sac State has some experience, but they give up a silly amount of wide-open threes in their zone. Montana has been killing it from distance all year, though there's no guarantee it continues. If you look at Sac State's six wins, none are particularly impressive. Winning at Utah was alright, but the other wins are are a pair of D2 teams, Central Arkansas, CS-Bakersfield, and Montana State.

I gotta take a shot with the Grizz. Gut feeling they are about to go on an ATS tear.

Great write up JFen. BOL tonight.

KTrain

Montana -1 (1 unit)

Holding off of any sort of bet in the ND game pending Jerian Grant's status. I can't back the over with him out of the lineup and would have to take a long look at Niagara.

bol tonite

Stanford is my favorite play tonight, good luck

But I'm a little disappointed you have no love for the Hornet's Nest at Sac St

I was so sure I'd open your thread and see you on the Blue Raiders tonight.  It just seemed like your kind of game...

I might sprinkle a unit on Stanford though.  Thanks for the write-up!

Very intimidating venue. I think it hosts middle school girls games on off days.

Funny you mention it. I just realized the game is a neutral site, and from the looks of this article, will have a pro-MTSU tilt.

I'd say MTSU wants this game rather badly...

https://www.tennessean.com/article/D4/20121221/BLUERAIDERS02/312210024/MTSU-Vandy-clash-Battle-Bridgestone

12/21 Card
Stanford -3 (1 unit)
Fordham +16 (1 unit)
Montana -1 (1 unit)
Baylor/MTSU ML -115 (1 unit)

Lean Wagner, but no reason to force with the enormous card tomorrow. If the MTSU line drops any further, I'll consider laying the points with the Raiders.

Sorry Jfenn, that's a $ line parlay on BYU & Mid Tenn St, correct? TY.

Sorry AGAIN, I meant Baylor/ mid Tenn St ML parlay. TY

JFen,

did you take a look at tomorrows openers yet?

Good luck

i like that montana pick. im from sac and sac st is just horrible. i played with some of the guys that go there and know a few others. i have to say montana looks nice...

I liked Stanford when I first looked at the card and felt better about being on the same side as you.  But it dropped to -2.5 around town (Vegas).  Are we perhaps missing something about this game?

Just from a very brief run through, I might have interest in:

Temple, East Carolina, Evansville, UNI, Bonnies, Mizzou, ULL, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Fairfield, Manhattan, Portland State

It's possible. I just don't think the books have properly adjusted to the loss of Crawford and the return of Bright.

Correct.

TGIF

gl friendclem1

JFen - You look at Wyoming, UCSB visiting, seems like a drubbing in the works.  UCSB seems to be down this year and this sort of travel at this time of year is for the birds, just want to get home.  Thoughts?  THX buddy!