Friday 12/28

November: 67-48 (+17.8 units)
December: 43-44 (-0.2 units)
Overall: 110-92 (+17.6 units)

Maybe December will somehow end up a winning month after all?

Iona ML +345 (1 unit)
As many of you know, I graduated from Hawk Hill this past spring and still have a passion for SJU basketball. Expectations for this season were at their highest point since the Jameer Nelson/Delonte West undefeated regular season of '03-'04, but to this point, the team has severely underachieved. The already-present issues were magnified in last Saturday's loss to Fairfield, as point-forward Halil Kanacevic, our best rebounder and passer, served the first of his two-game suspension for a double-middle finger salute to the Villanova student section. Same story tonight as HK will again be on the bench, this time against an opponent that has the potential to wipe the Hawks right off the floor. This SJU team plays its best in front of thunderous crowds, something that will certainly not be present this evening as the student body is still on break. Iona just added a major piece in 6'8, 240 pound forward David Laury, who has had been a major upgrade to the Gaels' front line and is an adept passer from the top of the key. Add in the backcourt of MoMo Jones and Sean Armand, and you have one of the few instances all season in which SJU does not have a clear advantage in the backcourt. Considering the blistering pace at which this game will be played, SJU's utter lack of depth (we play 6.5 guys) is going to be a major handicap. I hate to say it, and REALLY hope I am wrong, but this is not going to be a pretty sight tonight...

Rider +10 (1 unit)
Nice little in-state rivalry here as the boys from Lawrenceville get an opportunity to knock off big brother (and this is a relative term, as New Jersey athletics are laughable) in an early-afternoon game. Normally, Rutgers is a scary fade at the RAC, but considering the early start time, Christmas break, and RU bowl game tonight, it should be a rather sparse turnout. Pretty much Rider's whole team is from the NJ/NY area and there's a good deal of familiarity between the personnel dating back back to the AAU/High School days. Rider can hang with Rutgers athletically, though I do have a few concerns about them dealing with Rutgers' size on the glass. No Mike Rice again today as he finishes up his 3-game suspension for being an unmitigated lunatic. Gut says this game means a helluva lot more to Rider and I don't expect a full-throttle effort from RU in an early game right after Christmas and the Big East opener just four days away.

Leans:
Baylor +9.5

Not even gonna take the generous 8 points with Iona?


Like both

good luck nice card

like baylor also- zags lookahead to ok st

Phew...glad to see you on Rider too.  And when it comes to SJU reads, it's one of the few blind tails I'm willing to take a shot on 

another int

sorry wrong thread

cash 'em JFen       

how come it says that forward for st joes is eligible to return tonite?

Good luck.

Covers has him playing,but if you read it it said he is susp.2 games and they have only played once since the Villa.game,just another error on covers.

@JonFendler

Kanacevic is 110% out. Can't rely on Covers for injury/suspension info.

Is +8 a huge play then if you like the ML that much?

Hey Jfen, do post ur plays or attach a link here on twitter? Noticed you have a protected account. 

Oddly enough, I'm just making a normal 1-unit play on the spread. If SJU shows up tonight, end of game fouling and what not kills a lot of the value. The money line at +345 is a different story, though.

12/28 Final Card
Rider +10 (1 unit)
Iona +8 (1 unit)
Iona ML +345 (1 unit)
Belmont -3.5/Baylor +15.5 -120 (1 unit)

#THWND

Good luck, folks.

Thanks for the add, JFen!!  GL with Iona tonight

Just an update for anyone interested:

Per the SJU ticket office, game tonight is sold out. It's worth noting, however, that the 1200 seats normally reserved for students will be opened up as general admission.

Should be some decent noise, but nothing like it was for last year's wins over Creighton, Temple. nOVA, etc...

Go Hawks.

Hey JFEN - keep up the good work.  I have been following you for last few years religiously on here - don't post much but read pretty much everything.

St Joes is gonna wipe the floor with iona. Nice write up though..

I very much hope you are right.

Accepted.

This is a good question and one I have spent a good deal of time studying. There really is no concrete formula for deciding when to play an underdog for the first half as opposed to the full game. A team like Rutgers, who I fully expected to come out slowly this afternoon, is equally prone to having lulls in the second half. I think in the long-run it ends up basically being a wash.

Of course, there are occasional exceptions. I played Wright State first half last Saturday against Cincinnati for two reasons - A) letdown from Xavier game and B) The Bearcats' propensity for exploding in the second half. Lack of depth for the underdog is another reason to make first half plays, but it is truly an inexact science.

k thx