Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by gregdabunny:
I'm OLD GREGGGGGGGGG!
haha love that profile pic. nropp could you explain you view on S. Illinois +10.5? Looked into that game a bit, and I leaned Clemson. I know Clemson lost yesterday to UTEP, but Clemson is still good defensively, and S. Illinois struggled against K-State, who is also good defensively. Is Clemson's offense that bad?
Thanks!
I think this SIU game holds an insane amount of value.
First, this SIU team was only a 14.5 point pup yesterday to Kansas State who has exhibited a much better offense and faster paced and balanced team than what Clemson brings in today. Slow the tempo here, and face a worse offense, and the line is only four points of difference? Just doesn’t add up. SIU brings in a similar style defensively that buzzsawed Clemson yesterday, so from that standpoint, we really shouldn’t see a sudden emergence offense coming out of the blue. Clemson’s size in the paint is really my only concern, but the way that SIU pressure’s the guards, it’s going to be tough to get the ball into the paint.
From an SIU perspective, you can really throw out the season results to date. They’ve had some extremely bad losses, and their wins are far from impressive. Actually, their wins are absolutely pathetic. So, the ML is a bit more risky but it holds just an ounce of value at 5/1 and here’s why. How does Clemson get up for this game? I can’t find a reason that after the travel, and pathetic performance, and also the early tip yesterday, I just can’t see them getting up for this game after the clunker yesterday and facing a team that has 3 wins on the season. As I mentioned, don’t look at SIU’s past, it means nothing and has no bearing on this matchup today. SIU just recently received the services of Kendal Brown Surles back two games ago. He was exceptional at Northern Illinois, and had a rough game yesterday off the bench, but if you look at who Rodriguez (KSU) has guarded this year, he’s shut down everyone. So that was expected. Along with Brown-Surles returning to the lineup, they also just made the decision to bring Drinkard into the mix instead of redshirting him b/c they needed some post depth, and he makes the defense a lot better than what it is. Along with that, they’ve been without their defensive leader, and main cog in terms of an offensive threat from anywhere on the court and main slasher in Justin Bocot, who returned yesterday after serving a lengthy suspension. Drinkard won’t make an immediate impact, but Brown-Surles and and Bocot are main reason this offense has sucked. They aren’t the greatest shooters, but when they play together, they attack and dribble drive which really opens up other options. Without them, SIU is forced to rely on the three-point shot, something they have not been good at for a few years. With that said, Brown-Surles and Bocot didn’t start yesterday, and Lowery is easing them back into the lineup, and that’s something that should change today. He may go with the bigger lineup early, but these guys will get and should get a ton more minutes after holding back in the blowout loss yesterday. With that, they should also get a nice little emotional up bringing in a game that really is winnable and a game they’ll be more comfortable playing a similar style. Don’t get me wrong, the Clemson defense is pretty good, and they have the ability to make teams foolish at different times throughout the course of the game, and it’s very well possible that happens today. But I’m taking a chance that it doesn’t on the back-to-back after UTEP’s style, and I’ll take my chances with an SIU defense that is fully healthy and gets even better than the #130 ranking they currently have with a finally full and complete roster. Any offense from either side in this one is just an added bonus, and if Clemson just shows any hint of not being ready, then the SIU slashers should take advantage.
GL
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