Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 16-14, +15.40
January Leans: 17-12
I’m playing Illinois State. I know how good Creighton is and how good McDermott is. I know how much of a beast Echenique is and they’re really good, and they’re probably the best team in the conference. The offense is super smooth, and they play really well together. That’s about it, though in terms of this matchup. ISU welcomes in Creighton here, where it’s struggled mightily in past years in the building. Speaking of Redbird Arena, it’s a strong possibility that this will be the first sellout in a non-Bradley game in years, and by years, I mean a long time. They’ve been averaging about 5000 a game, and had advertised this game with $5 tickets. The students are back, and when you get this atmosphere, it’s by far one of the toughest places to play not only in the conference, but in the country. There are really two main factors that lie in how this game will be determined. First, I think it’s pretty safe to say that McDermott needs to be a big part of the Creighton offense for them to succeed. He’s coming off a game where they only one by 3, and he only took 15 shot attempts. So, the basis for defending him is there. You have to go man, and you face guard at every opportunity you can. If he catches the ball in a position to score, he’s going to shoot it. If he catches the ball with his back to the basket, you need to flash at him like you’re coming to double, but don’t double and recover quickly. UNI has excelled at this, and ISU has shown bits and pieces against similar competition in terms of style this year (they did it with Weems from MSU and they did it successfully). So, it’s a good chance I see that happen tonight and McDermott is defended by Ekey, who is now fully healthy from an ankle issue (played 30+ minutes last trip out). McDermott’s going to score, but if Creighton is going to come out a winner, they’re going to need some other players to have a couple above average nights from the offensive end. Creighton’s just in a bad spot. Going on the road as a favorite in the MVC, into a sold out arena and a late night tip against an offensive team that you struggle with a great deal. They’re strength is clearly on the inside, and everything they have with McDermott and Echenique sort of evens itself out here. As I’ve mentioned in the past, ISU is a balanced team, but a majority of their strengths lie inside the paint. Outside on the guard slot, they shoot the 3 quite a bit, ok, they shoot it a ton, and they get open looks because of the presence of the interior post guys they have. If you’ve watched Creighton this year, the pressure on the guards out front is ultra-weak. They’ll allow you to throw it into the post b/c that’s where they are good defensively, but ISU’s different in the fact that they’ll kick it out more times than not. Another big factor in this game with ISU is that they’re going to bring their bigs out to the perimeter to get Echenique away from the basket, something he’s not use to dealing with. From an offensive standpoint in the matchup, it would appear that ISU can get anything and everything they want tonight, the shots just have to fall. For Creighton, they’re just going to have to have someone to step up outside of McDermott, and in most instances they can, but I can’t find that person in this matchup. ISU has the size and speed to stick with their guards, and they have the beef in the paint to offset any Creighton advantage. The ISU pressure defense on the perimeter is something Creighton really has struggled against, and I just don’t see them becoming better at it overnight. If ISU chooses to slow Creighton down, I’m fine with that taking a really efficient Creighton offense and limiting them to possessions. If they choose to speed it up, I’m fine with that too, b/c more opportunities for ISU on offense means a lot more points against a defense that will struggle against a similar makeup. Is Creighton better? Yes, I believe so. Will they be better tonight? No, I don’t think so. The Redbirds should put up a decent fight tonight.
5* Illinois State +2.5
The Rest…
2* Cornell +2
Lean: South Florida +2
Lean: Drake/Evansville Under 146
GL
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