Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 35-27, +16.20
January Leans: 33-31
I’ve pointed this out before a few times this year, but Cleveland State is pretty good after a loss. For whatever reason, the defense looks even better.
After losing to Hofstra, they only allowed 45 points to Rhode Island
After losing to South Florida, they only allowed 45 points to Sam Houston State
After losing to Youngstown State, they only allowed 56 points to Illinois-Chicago
Now, those offenses are certainly no world beaters, but, neither is Wisconsin Green Bay. After losing their main cogs from last year’s team, they don’t have a go-to scorer, and they’re struggling to find scoring from anywhere. Here’s what they’ve done against good defenses this year (which CSU would qualify under, especially coming off a loss):
North Dakota State (61 in 70 possessions)
Wyoming (52)
Indiana State (56)
Virginia (42)
Wisconsin (42)
Marquette (61 in 76 possessions)
Idaho (63)
Butler (49)
Wisky MKE (63 in 72 possessions)
Wright State (57)
Those are some pretty low numbers. Let’s focus on the low #’s with a ton of possessions b/c this will be key here. For one, Cleveland State hasn’t played in a 70 possession game since the first few weeks of the season. If for some reason this game does go over the 70 possession mark, then the lack of offense from Wisky GB here still holds value in any under. But, here’s the reason I think that I don’t get a ton of possessions. First, Wisconsin Green Bay has a huge advantage in the paint here. Their top possession guy is 7’1” Alec Brown. Cleveland State has nobody that can be physical with him. It’s a huge advantage for Wisconsin Green Bay here, and something they’ll look to find and find often, but Cleveland State’s guards defend exceptionally well. If you remember anything from last year, I think it was pretty apparent that I had a hard-on for Cleveland State’s D’Aundray Brown, as that team last year with him would have been special. He’s a defensive superstar and it’s rare that people score on him. With the guard pressure that CSU brings, it’s going to be tough for Wisky GB to get the ball inside. So, what do I think will happen here? Well, neither of these offenses scare me. In fact, both are far worse than what they were a year ago, and both defenses are exceptionally better. If you look at last year’s meetings, the totals came in at 158 and 121. The total of 158 is a bit false as both teams shot the ball exceptionally well, and 51 of those 158 points came at the foul line. That just isn’t going to happen again. Just to give you an idea of how well both teams shot in that game that ended at 158, there was only 63 possessions. The other meeting played to 59 possessions. Two years ago, these two teams played to 56 and 63 possessions. Again, the past few years these teams have had big name players and big name scorers. Thus, his game should hit nowhere near 70 possessions, and there’s a 50/50 chance that they’re closer to the 60 possession range. Am I going to trust these offenses to score in a snail setting? Not at all. Wisconsin Green Bay should be able to use more clock than normal, and get the big guy involved. On the defensive side of things for Wisky GB, they pressure the guards just as CSU does, and they try to force you into the paint. When you go into the paint, you have a 7 footer waiting for you (Brown had 11 blocks I believe against Wright State). Neither team gets to the foul line this year so there’s a 99% chance this game doesn’t get 68 foul attempts like last year’s meeting. It really just comes down to one thing, and it’s the fact that both teams defenses are much, much better than their offenses. These two teams know each other, and they know exactly what the other team wants to do. Brown may get some points in the paint, and the CSU guards may hit some perimeter shots, but even in that situation, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to go over this number. It also helps that CSU is coming off a loss. Cleveland State 61, Wisky GB 50
1* Wisconsin Green Bay/Cleveland State Under 129
GL
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