I have a parlay that was no posted with Mich St. -6 and VT +7, along with Oregon +8.5 from last night. I really like the Spartans against LSU as I think even as a #2 seed that this Mich St team is a tad underrated and has been somewhat overlooked due to injuries throughout the season and never really having their full compliment of players. However they got some key pieced back just in time for a rather typical at this point, Tom Izzo and Michigan State late March run into the later weekends of the tournament as it seems that they virtually always make it to at least the sweet 16 if no the Final 4, which I believe they may be headed again this year as, if Duke can get past VT, I think Mich St has a good chance to beat them and advance to play in April. With Justin Robinson back, I am not sure how a team that already beat Duke earlier in the year without him is getting so many points. I know that Zion also did not play in that game but still, they each are almost equally important to their teams success as a whole. I think the 2 games of the night will be started with possibly the most exciting game of the night with the matchup between Auburn-UNC, which I expect to be a high scoring affair, and to cap off the round of 16, Houston-UK I think should make for a very tightly contested matchup that should be fun to watch.
PLAYS
Mich St 1H -3 (3 Units)
Mich St -6 (5 Units)
VT +7 (2 Units)
VT-Duke under 144 (1 Unit)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have a parlay that was no posted with Mich St. -6 and VT +7, along with Oregon +8.5 from last night. I really like the Spartans against LSU as I think even as a #2 seed that this Mich St team is a tad underrated and has been somewhat overlooked due to injuries throughout the season and never really having their full compliment of players. However they got some key pieced back just in time for a rather typical at this point, Tom Izzo and Michigan State late March run into the later weekends of the tournament as it seems that they virtually always make it to at least the sweet 16 if no the Final 4, which I believe they may be headed again this year as, if Duke can get past VT, I think Mich St has a good chance to beat them and advance to play in April. With Justin Robinson back, I am not sure how a team that already beat Duke earlier in the year without him is getting so many points. I know that Zion also did not play in that game but still, they each are almost equally important to their teams success as a whole. I think the 2 games of the night will be started with possibly the most exciting game of the night with the matchup between Auburn-UNC, which I expect to be a high scoring affair, and to cap off the round of 16, Houston-UK I think should make for a very tightly contested matchup that should be fun to watch.
I will repost my logic for the picks in the Auburn-UNC game that I posted in a thread discussing taking O/U's and that with it being the tournament and it win or go home, that usually taking the under is the play as teams slow their pace of play down
I would tend to agree with that and I had the under tonight in the FSU-Zags, TT-Mich, but took the over in the Tenn-Purdue game but that game was just crazy. Usually teams tend to slow it down, they give more effort on the defensive end, doing the small things like boxing out, and minimizing easy points for the other team. However, with Auburn and UNC, neither one of their games fit that kind of style at all and would probably hinder them more than just staying loose and playing their style of ball, it is who they are. Auburn has no hesitation from jacking up a 3 from 35 feet 8 seconds into the game, followed by 2 more three point attempts before they finally take the ball inside. Auburn shoots more 3's than almost any team in ncaab. They average 30/game which is top 5 in all of college hoops. Also over 43% of Auburn's scoring comes from 3 pointers which is top 10 in the land. UNC averages 86 pts/game which is #3 in ncaab, Auburn averages just over 79. They are both in the top 20 of offensive efficiency each averaging over 1.1 points per possession with Auburn having a slight edge. I think this game will be a fast paced, high tempo, high shot attempt and therefor high scoring game. I feel the only way this game stays under is both teams are going to have to shoot poorly, especially from 3, which I just don't see happening for any extended period of time. Cam Johnson for UNC seems to make every 3 he takes when I watch them play as I rarely see him miss one, he does shoot over 46% from 3 and over 50% from the field. And with Brown and White running point and commanding these offenses I see them pushing it all game. Coby White reminds me of Ray Felton when he was in college, he was almost always the fastest person on the court. Bryce Brown for Auburn shoots over 40% from behind the arc. And I know Little will be out for UNC and that is a 19 ppg contribution but they have plenty of other people who can and have stepped up and carried the load, veterans in Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson. Ellis, Williams and Woods are experienced, and their other young players have contributed big in White, Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks (who went to Auburn HS and is from Auburn, AL). I don't see either team being fazed by the stage, I expect them to be relaxed and confident with how they have each played rolling into the Sweet 16 rather easily so far.
This is a quote from Bruce Pearl in an excerpt by 247 Sports on his approach to not calling timeouts if the other team goes on a scoring run.
“There are certain things that analysts might say, like ‘Live by the 3-ball, die by the 3-ball.’ That’s just brilliant,” Pearl said, sarcastically. “Or you press a pressing team. I don’t know who created that one. Or, why doesn’t he call timeout? Like, to let the other guy go over there and get his troops organized and let the crowd celebrate? My guys should know what to do during one of their runs. I’m not calling timeout because I’m going to play 10 guys and they’re going to play seven or eight and I don’t want to give them a chance to rest. It’s a sign of my confidence in them. Go get a foul, go run some offense, make the whistle stop that way. Don’t make me stop the game by having to call the game.”
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I will repost my logic for the picks in the Auburn-UNC game that I posted in a thread discussing taking O/U's and that with it being the tournament and it win or go home, that usually taking the under is the play as teams slow their pace of play down
I would tend to agree with that and I had the under tonight in the FSU-Zags, TT-Mich, but took the over in the Tenn-Purdue game but that game was just crazy. Usually teams tend to slow it down, they give more effort on the defensive end, doing the small things like boxing out, and minimizing easy points for the other team. However, with Auburn and UNC, neither one of their games fit that kind of style at all and would probably hinder them more than just staying loose and playing their style of ball, it is who they are. Auburn has no hesitation from jacking up a 3 from 35 feet 8 seconds into the game, followed by 2 more three point attempts before they finally take the ball inside. Auburn shoots more 3's than almost any team in ncaab. They average 30/game which is top 5 in all of college hoops. Also over 43% of Auburn's scoring comes from 3 pointers which is top 10 in the land. UNC averages 86 pts/game which is #3 in ncaab, Auburn averages just over 79. They are both in the top 20 of offensive efficiency each averaging over 1.1 points per possession with Auburn having a slight edge. I think this game will be a fast paced, high tempo, high shot attempt and therefor high scoring game. I feel the only way this game stays under is both teams are going to have to shoot poorly, especially from 3, which I just don't see happening for any extended period of time. Cam Johnson for UNC seems to make every 3 he takes when I watch them play as I rarely see him miss one, he does shoot over 46% from 3 and over 50% from the field. And with Brown and White running point and commanding these offenses I see them pushing it all game. Coby White reminds me of Ray Felton when he was in college, he was almost always the fastest person on the court. Bryce Brown for Auburn shoots over 40% from behind the arc. And I know Little will be out for UNC and that is a 19 ppg contribution but they have plenty of other people who can and have stepped up and carried the load, veterans in Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson. Ellis, Williams and Woods are experienced, and their other young players have contributed big in White, Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks (who went to Auburn HS and is from Auburn, AL). I don't see either team being fazed by the stage, I expect them to be relaxed and confident with how they have each played rolling into the Sweet 16 rather easily so far.
This is a quote from Bruce Pearl in an excerpt by 247 Sports on his approach to not calling timeouts if the other team goes on a scoring run.
“There are certain things that analysts might say, like ‘Live by the 3-ball, die by the 3-ball.’ That’s just brilliant,” Pearl said, sarcastically. “Or you press a pressing team. I don’t know who created that one. Or, why doesn’t he call timeout? Like, to let the other guy go over there and get his troops organized and let the crowd celebrate? My guys should know what to do during one of their runs. I’m not calling timeout because I’m going to play 10 guys and they’re going to play seven or eight and I don’t want to give them a chance to rest. It’s a sign of my confidence in them. Go get a foul, go run some offense, make the whistle stop that way. Don’t make me stop the game by having to call the game.”
So what Pearl is saying as I understand it is that he's going to let them play through spurts and runs and crazy plays, which will maintain the flow of the game instead of break it up, let them keep running, which I think will help people stay in rhythm and shots falling. And last but not least, should you need more to be conviced, Bruce Pearl said himself, "take the over", in reference to the scoring that he expects to take place in this game. All signs to me point to a game that sails over, and I could see a team reaching 90-100 points in this game. Especially since these teams are hot and we have seen what a team that gets hot in March can do from Purdue their last couple of games, they are averaging 93ppg and did so against Villanova, a very slow paced, methodical team that allows its opponents an avg of 67 ppg, they runs sets and don't take early shot clock attempts. Then put up one point shy of 100, granted that included OT, but against Tennessee who has athletes all over the court and averages over 5 each blocks and steal per game and holds opponents to under 50% from the field on average. Tennessee shot 50% from both behind the arc and from the field and still lost. That is the same Tennessee team that Auburn beat twice in the last month by playing a similar style of high efficiency offense, hell in the SEC championship game Auburn ran them out of the gym and shot lights out. Auburn hit a 3 in the first 15 secs of the game to start the scoring and the Vols never had a chance from there as Auburn never looked back and quickly mounted a large lead and maintained it throughout, even extending it through the beginning of the second half. I see this being a similar type of game where there may be a period of a few minutes where scoring slows and there may be one half that isn't necessarily that high scoring, but it won't last long and by the end of the game there will be plenty of points on the board, just not sure if they come early or late.
PLAYS
Auburn-UNC over 164 (5 Units)
Auburn-UNC 1H over 77 (3 Units)
Auburn +6 (3 Units) bought 0.5 pt
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So what Pearl is saying as I understand it is that he's going to let them play through spurts and runs and crazy plays, which will maintain the flow of the game instead of break it up, let them keep running, which I think will help people stay in rhythm and shots falling. And last but not least, should you need more to be conviced, Bruce Pearl said himself, "take the over", in reference to the scoring that he expects to take place in this game. All signs to me point to a game that sails over, and I could see a team reaching 90-100 points in this game. Especially since these teams are hot and we have seen what a team that gets hot in March can do from Purdue their last couple of games, they are averaging 93ppg and did so against Villanova, a very slow paced, methodical team that allows its opponents an avg of 67 ppg, they runs sets and don't take early shot clock attempts. Then put up one point shy of 100, granted that included OT, but against Tennessee who has athletes all over the court and averages over 5 each blocks and steal per game and holds opponents to under 50% from the field on average. Tennessee shot 50% from both behind the arc and from the field and still lost. That is the same Tennessee team that Auburn beat twice in the last month by playing a similar style of high efficiency offense, hell in the SEC championship game Auburn ran them out of the gym and shot lights out. Auburn hit a 3 in the first 15 secs of the game to start the scoring and the Vols never had a chance from there as Auburn never looked back and quickly mounted a large lead and maintained it throughout, even extending it through the beginning of the second half. I see this being a similar type of game where there may be a period of a few minutes where scoring slows and there may be one half that isn't necessarily that high scoring, but it won't last long and by the end of the game there will be plenty of points on the board, just not sure if they come early or late.
For the Hou-UK game I am leaning UK -2.5 but I think it will be a close game and could see UK winning by 2. I am not going to make a play until I find out the status of PJ Washington for UK, or at least have a good idea. I am thinking he will play and just be limited minutes but Reid is a beast in the post also and so I don't worry that much over that. Houston has a veteran group so I am looking more for that added mental support that the Cats would have if PJ can suit up and play, even if he doesn't stuff the stat sheet.
I am also most likely going to have a play on OVER 134 but again, going to wait and see what the word is Friday morning once they start getting close to finalizing lineups and making a decision and all to see how likely it is that PJ Washington will play.
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For the Hou-UK game I am leaning UK -2.5 but I think it will be a close game and could see UK winning by 2. I am not going to make a play until I find out the status of PJ Washington for UK, or at least have a good idea. I am thinking he will play and just be limited minutes but Reid is a beast in the post also and so I don't worry that much over that. Houston has a veteran group so I am looking more for that added mental support that the Cats would have if PJ can suit up and play, even if he doesn't stuff the stat sheet.
I am also most likely going to have a play on OVER 134 but again, going to wait and see what the word is Friday morning once they start getting close to finalizing lineups and making a decision and all to see how likely it is that PJ Washington will play.
Lets keep it going through the weekend. Ended up taking UK -2 right before tip off so I didn't post but what a nice cap to end the night on a great day full of $$$
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6-1 on posted plays today
+20 Units on the day!!!!
Lets keep it going through the weekend. Ended up taking UK -2 right before tip off so I didn't post but what a nice cap to end the night on a great day full of $$$
6-1 on posted plays today +20 Units on the day!!!! Lets keep it going through the weekend. Ended up taking UK -2 right before tip off so I didn't post but what a nice cap to end the night on a great day full of $$$
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Quote Originally Posted by GoNoles37:
6-1 on posted plays today +20 Units on the day!!!! Lets keep it going through the weekend. Ended up taking UK -2 right before tip off so I didn't post but what a nice cap to end the night on a great day full of $$$
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