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FRIDAY NCAAB 11/11/11

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Posted: #51
Did you see what his father tweeted?  https://blogs.fayobserver.com/accbasketball/November-2011/Kendall-Marshall-s-back-is-fine,-even-if-his-dad-s

He says his back is fine, but we'll see.  I'm most likely staying away, but it's shocking how many people are backing UNC as double digit favs tonight in such unpredictable conditions. 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

Hey Papa,

If you don't mind me asking how have you done in the past when it comes to college hoops. Thanks and have a great season



I've been around 56-62% last 5 years betting NCAAB.  My best season was 2008-2009, which I hovered around 62% all season. 
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by npearl:

Healthy

https://www.dailytarheel.com/index.php/article/2011/11/marshall_ready_for_unc_season_opener


I will most likely lay off this game and see how he looks. 
 
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Posted: #54
Just a concerned father, that's all...I understand your worry.  Believe me, as a homer for UNC, which I am (although I do research as much as I can), I am so worried for Kendall's health this year.  I believe he is fine, as you know.  If I'm wrong, then there goes my bet. But I don't think I'm wrong.

As for backing them double digits, I really don't see the conditions as unpredictable. It's not like they have never played outside before. At the end of last year, UNC went around campus to every outdoor court and played pick up games with students. They love playing outside. The team will be pumped to play on the ship and will outclass MSU, as the MSU experts have stated, in every facet of the game.

However, I respect you being able to stay away from the game.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



I will most likely lay off this game and see how he looks. 


  Fair enough.  They play 30+ more games this season.
 
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Posted: #56

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



I've been around 56-62% last 5 years betting NCAAB.  My best season was 2008-2009, which I hovered around 62% all season. 

Thanks Papa here's to another successful season froma class act. Appreciate it bud.

 
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Posted: #57
Valpo is a nice simple non popular play - Valpo -4
 
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Posted: #58
(Friday 11/11/11):
Tulsa -12 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
BYU +3 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Troy +13.5 -110 (5.5 to win 5 Units)
West Carolina +10 -120 (3.6 to win 3 Units)
Georgia Southern +6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
SE Missouri State +24 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Loyola Marymount +14.5 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Michigan State +11 (4.4 to win 4 Units) My book still offers this line...


Leans:
Marist +
Colorado State -
Duke -
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

(Friday 11/11/11):
Tulsa -12 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
BYU +3 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Troy +13.5 -110 (5.5 to win 5 Units)
West Carolina +10 -120 (3.6 to win 3 Units)
Georgia Southern +6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
SE Missouri State +24 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Loyola Marymount +14.5 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Michigan State +11 (4.4 to win 4 Units) My book still offers this line...


Leans:
Marist +
Colorado State -
Duke -

Which book is offering that +11?

 
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Posted: #60
(Friday 11/11/11):
Tulsa -12 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
BYU +3 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Troy +13.5 -110 (5.5 to win 5 Units)
West Carolina +10 -120 (3.6 to win 3 Units)
Georgia Southern +6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
SE Missouri State +24 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Loyola Marymount +14.5 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Michigan State +11 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Marist +35 -110 (2.2 to win 2 Units)
Duke -11 -120 (2.4 to win 2 Units)
Colorado State -6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
 
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Posted: #61
So MSU at +11, which is 8 points different than you handicapped it the entire night/day is a lean.

The line moves 2 points, EVERYWHERE, somehow you still get the +11 and it is now your 2nd biggest play of the day?

That's interesting.  
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:


Which book is offering that +11?



Local brother.  I have 7 accounts. 
 
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Posted: #63
bol this season 

leaning Marist, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by npearl:

 

However, I respect you being able to stay away from the game.

It just became his 2nd biggest play, at a number that isn't available.  
 
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Posted: #65
Valpo -3.5
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:


It just became his 2nd biggest play, at a number that isn't available.  


So, if you saw that a spread was +9 at a book and your local was still offering +11, you wouldn't grab it for a good amount?  Okay brother. 
 
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Posted: #67

question if u got it at  UCLA -18   but actual is > (-15) vs Loyola Marymount

doesnt the lower actual spread favor UCLA so why lean loyola marymount?

correct me if im wrong but u got ucla favored to win by 18  so u get 3 free points taking them at 15 so why pick the dog here?

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

So MSU at +11, which is 8 points different than you handicapped it the entire night/day is a lean.

The line moves 2 points, EVERYWHERE, somehow you still get the +11 and it is now your 2nd biggest play of the day?

That's interesting.  


your an asshole.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:



your an asshole.

Call it like I see it.  

If that makes me an asshole I'll take the compliment.  
 
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Posted: #70
Love the plays man, glad to see you on BYU....

Everything is pointing towards them dominating a Utah State team who lost 10 players...BYU returns Davies and others who have actually played meaning minutes.

Thanks for the Northridge insight as well to the other guy. LETS GET IT

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by alabamam25:

question if u got it at  UCLA -18   but actual is > (-15) vs Loyola Marymount

doesnt the lower actual spread favor UCLA so why lean loyola marymount?

correct me if im wrong but u got ucla favored to win by 18  so u get 3 free points taking them at 15 so why pick the dog here?



Those are just spread projections based on numbers I crunch.  Doesn't necessarily mean I play it even if the numbers are off a bunch.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:


Call it like I see it.  

If that makes me an asshole I'll take the compliment.  


Get those titties out of my face. 
 
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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



Those are just spread projections based on numbers I crunch.  Doesn't necessarily mean I play it even if the numbers are off a bunch.

NOT a bash just a Q!  So if the # you post as your line vs actual, has no relevance to how you bet??  What good is it?

 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by TBallgame:

NOT a bash just a Q!  So if the # you post as your line vs actual, has no relevance to how you bet??  What good is it?



It does have relevance, but it's only 1 factor.  There are many factors when handicapping a game.  It's not all about numbers. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
(Friday 11/11/11):
Tulsa -12 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
BYU +3 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Troy +13.5 -110 (5.5 to win 5 Units)
West Carolina +10 -120 (3.6 to win 3 Units)
Georgia Southern +6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
SE Missouri State +24 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Loyola Marymount +14.5 -110 (3.3 to win 3 Units)
Michigan State +11 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
Marist +35 -110 (2.2 to win 2 Units)
Duke -11 -120 (2.4 to win 2 Units)
Colorado State -6 -110 (4.4 to win 4 Units)
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