Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 4-4, -3.40
March Leans: 2-2
This one should be a dogfight, as both defenses take a lot away from what the other team wants to do offensively. Hofstra’s coming off a 93 point effort, their highest of the season (BY FAR). To put that in perspective, that's 50 points less than they scored in the first meeting between these two teams this year in a 56 possession game. Georgia State hasn’t gone over 63 possessions in the last five years which really doesn’t mean anything with a new coach at the helm, but Hunter’s a traditional snail and his time at IUPUI he slowed down in the conference tourney against much faster teams than what Hofstra presents. Cassara’s lone tournament games last year went 60 and 58 possessions. Hofstra’s a team where its best two players need room to operate and score, and they just can’t do it against the Georgia State zone and while I've been a big fan of Ron Hunter's offensive scheme, it ain't working this year at Georgia State.
3* Hofstra/Georgia State Under 126.5
I don’t look at Marist as the type of team to be a 5 point favorite against any team in the country on a neutral court, let alone a team that’s awfully familiar with them. St. Peter’s offense is terrible, but they’ll have open looks tonight. Marist won a single road game all year (coincidentally it came at St. Peter’s who was sandwiched in between the conference leaders). Marist did play well late, but again, those games were at home. John Dunne’s tough guard pressure defense just gave up its highest total of the season in its last game, and Marist just scored its second most points of the conference season. Basically, St. Peter’s has a bit more experience and it just comes down to me trusting Dunne’s defense over anything in this matchup. Same Marist team that wasn’t favored in a single game last year, and a total of four games this year, none of them as high as this #.
2* St. Peter’s +5
Missouri Valley Tournament games last year came in at 111, 111, 114, 117, 126, 102, 110, 115, 116. Last night’s games came in at 117 and 114. This morning’s games came in at 120 and 96. These two just played last time out. In fact, Evansville comes in having just played two straight OT contests (that both went 76 and 78 possessions). Both Evansville/Missouri State games this year went to OT, and both went over in 74 and 78 possessions. Missouri State only went over 70+ possessions 1 time in the conference in games that didn’t hit OT. Missouri State brought a much better offense into last year’s conference tourney, yet still played to 60, 55, and 57 possessions and they haven’t had a game go over 64 possessions since at least 2006. Evansville’s a faster paced team, just don’t think that they control the tempo tonight. These two met in the conference tourney two years ago and played to a 52-46 final (different Missouri State coach, but same principles and coaching tree).
2* Missouri State/Evansville Under 129.5
Better coach who hasn’t lost a game in the month of March since 2009. Butler just played in this gym last week, MKE hasn’t been here since December. Since the clock switched over to 2012, MKE’s lone road victories come against UIC, Loyola, and Wisky GB. Take my chance with Nored on Williams. If they can slow him down (which I certainly trust Nored to do), MKE won’t score. Butler should be able to score in the paint, and their lack of scoring from the perimeter doesn’t really hurt them as it’s MKE’s strength. When Butler plays teams that can’t score like them, really just comes down to coaching.
2* Butler -2.5
I’ve brought up the MAC East road teams struggling, but Akron’s the only team to win more than one on the road against the East. More importantly, this is a pretty big rivalry, and Akron’s playing for the conference crown. Kent State has struggled with size as of late, something Akron certainly brings to the table. All in all, game should be played pretty physical, and going to side with that type of team. More a hunch play than anything, hence the…
1* Akron +3.5
Lean: Chattanooga +1
Lean: Drake/Creighton Under 137.5
Lean: Akron/Kent State Under 143
GL
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