I personally was leaning harvard earlier today but now im not playing it, their last 5 games matchup against the same opponents with harvard coming out on top, but columbia was away for those games, while harvard was home. Hard for me to make a pick here but from what ive seen watching harvard play, they might just come out and beat them down, GL to you, thats my 2 cents on this.
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I personally was leaning harvard earlier today but now im not playing it, their last 5 games matchup against the same opponents with harvard coming out on top, but columbia was away for those games, while harvard was home. Hard for me to make a pick here but from what ive seen watching harvard play, they might just come out and beat them down, GL to you, thats my 2 cents on this.
I personally was leaning harvard earlier today but now im not playing it, their last 5 games matchup against the same opponents with harvard coming out on top, but columbia was away for those games, while harvard was home. Hard for me to make a pick here but from what ive seen watching harvard play, they might just come out and beat them down, GL to you, thats my 2 cents on this.
Thanks, no pick yet on Columbia. Also waiting for some injury news to come out in that game. Just a lean right now assuming both teams are full strength.
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Quote Originally Posted by takeaseatvegas:
I personally was leaning harvard earlier today but now im not playing it, their last 5 games matchup against the same opponents with harvard coming out on top, but columbia was away for those games, while harvard was home. Hard for me to make a pick here but from what ive seen watching harvard play, they might just come out and beat them down, GL to you, thats my 2 cents on this.
Thanks, no pick yet on Columbia. Also waiting for some injury news to come out in that game. Just a lean right now assuming both teams are full strength.
yea if mullens is out for columbia i might have to jump on harvard, in such a low key game like this one, how can you find out last minute injuries? just tune in to the game during pregame?
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yea if mullens is out for columbia i might have to jump on harvard, in such a low key game like this one, how can you find out last minute injuries? just tune in to the game during pregame?
I see this game very similar to Browns game at Yale or home vs Rhode Island. The matchups are very similar in that regard. They have no answer for bigger guards and athletic SFs. I think Bray and Weisz have very good games tonight and are able to do anything they want. Last year they held McDonnell in check somewhat besides the fouls. Brown got to FT line 52 times. That's not going to happen again. I see a 79-70 type game but who knows.
Goodluck to you.
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I see this game very similar to Browns game at Yale or home vs Rhode Island. The matchups are very similar in that regard. They have no answer for bigger guards and athletic SFs. I think Bray and Weisz have very good games tonight and are able to do anything they want. Last year they held McDonnell in check somewhat besides the fouls. Brown got to FT line 52 times. That's not going to happen again. I see a 79-70 type game but who knows.
Bray is 6'5 and Weisz 6'4. Incase you were not aware. Siren and Cotten for Yale similar comparison and same with Mathews for Rhode Island. All had great games vs Brown.
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Bray is 6'5 and Weisz 6'4. Incase you were not aware. Siren and Cotten for Yale similar comparison and same with Mathews for Rhode Island. All had great games vs Brown.
I see this game very similar to Browns game at Yale or home vs Rhode Island. The matchups are very similar in that regard. They have no answer for bigger guards and athletic SFs. I think Bray and Weisz have very good games tonight and are able to do anything they want. Last year they held McDonnell in check somewhat besides the fouls. Brown got to FT line 52 times. That's not going to happen again. I see a 79-70 type game but who knows.
Goodluck to you.
Fair points and thanks for the insight.
I see it a bit different. Brown lost by 7 at Yale, but turned it around against beating them by 17 a week later at home. That was the springboard to their recent very good 5 game run. Rhode Island is the better team, so a 9 point loss on the road isn't too bad.
Additionally, Brown has something to play for. They're 1 game out of a tie for first place in a conference that has no tournament, so the auto-bid goes to the regular season winner. Princeton has nothing to play for. Brown gets Harvard at home later (only lost by 6 on the road), and Yale and Harvard still have one more to play against each other.
Appreciate the discussion. Good points on the guards. I just look at the direction each team is heading, and they are complete opposites.
Also, my bread and butter, my models tell me Brown as well :)
BOL in your picks
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Quote Originally Posted by Mart6936:
I see this game very similar to Browns game at Yale or home vs Rhode Island. The matchups are very similar in that regard. They have no answer for bigger guards and athletic SFs. I think Bray and Weisz have very good games tonight and are able to do anything they want. Last year they held McDonnell in check somewhat besides the fouls. Brown got to FT line 52 times. That's not going to happen again. I see a 79-70 type game but who knows.
Goodluck to you.
Fair points and thanks for the insight.
I see it a bit different. Brown lost by 7 at Yale, but turned it around against beating them by 17 a week later at home. That was the springboard to their recent very good 5 game run. Rhode Island is the better team, so a 9 point loss on the road isn't too bad.
Additionally, Brown has something to play for. They're 1 game out of a tie for first place in a conference that has no tournament, so the auto-bid goes to the regular season winner. Princeton has nothing to play for. Brown gets Harvard at home later (only lost by 6 on the road), and Yale and Harvard still have one more to play against each other.
Appreciate the discussion. Good points on the guards. I just look at the direction each team is heading, and they are complete opposites.
Also, my bread and butter, my models tell me Brown as well :)
Question for you though. What's your reasoning for the opening line and line movement then?? If it was based on which way team was going as well as recent play plus adding In the fact that they have similar records wouldn't you cap this game at about brown -1 to even? The way I see it is due to the matchup. And lets be real this is the IVY League these kids are always playing hard they have pride to play for in themselves. And in regards to the line movement, why is line going up ? It not like Princeton heavy public fav. Seems like everybody on here loves brown and that's the way the avg better sees it to.
Somethig to think about.
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Love the discussion.
Question for you though. What's your reasoning for the opening line and line movement then?? If it was based on which way team was going as well as recent play plus adding In the fact that they have similar records wouldn't you cap this game at about brown -1 to even? The way I see it is due to the matchup. And lets be real this is the IVY League these kids are always playing hard they have pride to play for in themselves. And in regards to the line movement, why is line going up ? It not like Princeton heavy public fav. Seems like everybody on here loves brown and that's the way the avg better sees it to.
Question for you though. What's your reasoning for the opening line and line movement then?? If it was based on which way team was going as well as recent play plus adding In the fact that they have similar records wouldn't you cap this game at about brown -1 to even? The way I see it is due to the matchup. And lets be real this is the IVY League these kids are always playing hard they have pride to play for in themselves. And in regards to the line movement, why is line going up ? It not like Princeton heavy public fav. Seems like everybody on here loves brown and that's the way the avg better sees it to.
Somethig to think about.
I can't really speak to the line movement. I make mathematical models for my real job, and I like to do so for sports as well. My current models show Princeton is the better team than Brown anywhere from 0.7 to 4.1 points better on a neutral court.
The fact that these numbers have such a wide range shows my models don't agree very well for this particular matchup, meaning there's less confidence in my results. However, we can say from my models that if Princeton is 4 points better and Brown is getting 4 points (at the time of my pick), then for my worst case scenario it's a toss up even before homecourt advantage is applied.
I agree a more appropriate line would be around +2...there's no way I could pick it then. Give Princeton an additional 2 points for the matchup and maybe that's where you get the +4. I don't know. I just don't see 9 points, especially given the opposite directions the teams are headed, and the fact that Brown is at home, when my worst case scenario shows Princeton at best only 4.1 points the favorite on a neutral court.
Of course anything can happen. Literature shows college basketball results usually have a standard deviation of around 8 to 11 (i.e. if teams played each other over and over again we don't expect that the point spread would be the same every time. Instead, we'd expect that to be normally distributed around some point spread value, with the standard deviation of the distribution around 8 to 11). We'll put Ivy league on the higher variance side (so STDEV closer to 11), so if Princeton is 4 points better, then there's definitely a real chance they win by 9. But just as equal a chance they lose by 1. Again, this before homecourt is applied. And Brown is getting 4 points from Vegas.
I just happen to like the math works out well for Brown and the fact that Brown is trending up, Princeton trending down. When the math and the psychology agree, I make the pick.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mart6936:
Love the discussion.
Question for you though. What's your reasoning for the opening line and line movement then?? If it was based on which way team was going as well as recent play plus adding In the fact that they have similar records wouldn't you cap this game at about brown -1 to even? The way I see it is due to the matchup. And lets be real this is the IVY League these kids are always playing hard they have pride to play for in themselves. And in regards to the line movement, why is line going up ? It not like Princeton heavy public fav. Seems like everybody on here loves brown and that's the way the avg better sees it to.
Somethig to think about.
I can't really speak to the line movement. I make mathematical models for my real job, and I like to do so for sports as well. My current models show Princeton is the better team than Brown anywhere from 0.7 to 4.1 points better on a neutral court.
The fact that these numbers have such a wide range shows my models don't agree very well for this particular matchup, meaning there's less confidence in my results. However, we can say from my models that if Princeton is 4 points better and Brown is getting 4 points (at the time of my pick), then for my worst case scenario it's a toss up even before homecourt advantage is applied.
I agree a more appropriate line would be around +2...there's no way I could pick it then. Give Princeton an additional 2 points for the matchup and maybe that's where you get the +4. I don't know. I just don't see 9 points, especially given the opposite directions the teams are headed, and the fact that Brown is at home, when my worst case scenario shows Princeton at best only 4.1 points the favorite on a neutral court.
Of course anything can happen. Literature shows college basketball results usually have a standard deviation of around 8 to 11 (i.e. if teams played each other over and over again we don't expect that the point spread would be the same every time. Instead, we'd expect that to be normally distributed around some point spread value, with the standard deviation of the distribution around 8 to 11). We'll put Ivy league on the higher variance side (so STDEV closer to 11), so if Princeton is 4 points better, then there's definitely a real chance they win by 9. But just as equal a chance they lose by 1. Again, this before homecourt is applied. And Brown is getting 4 points from Vegas.
I just happen to like the math works out well for Brown and the fact that Brown is trending up, Princeton trending down. When the math and the psychology agree, I make the pick.
I completely get it. I'm a software engineer so at thinking is a bit opposite. I write in code all day and figure out issues with coding. So it's not as mathematical lol I'm more systematic in my thinking and solving problems.
BOL to you though. Wish we were on similar sides.
Also against you on SMU. One of us is going to be happy tonight lol
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I completely get it. I'm a software engineer so at thinking is a bit opposite. I write in code all day and figure out issues with coding. So it's not as mathematical lol I'm more systematic in my thinking and solving problems.
BOL to you though. Wish we were on similar sides.
Also against you on SMU. One of us is going to be happy tonight lol
Good luck leap. I don't understand all of the mathematical stuff u talk about but I get a good chunk and it's interesting. I'm on Arizona st and canisus tonight.
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Good luck leap. I don't understand all of the mathematical stuff u talk about but I get a good chunk and it's interesting. I'm on Arizona st and canisus tonight.
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