Well done sir!
I had a feeling thanks for the push to the ML!
You made a bad play that got there and you end up looking like a genius. I doubt you were aware of the home/road split with Michigan where they are 20 points better at home, similar to Purdue. There wasn't anything to suggest Mich St would have the type of offensive success they had tonight with their injuries. They labored for 30 min vs Rutgers. More often than not that carries over, but it didn't today and that's why there is no such thing as a lock or certainty in betting. When you have a home team laying low chalk in a game the crowd is super pumped up for and they're at least equal to on paper they usually win that game. This Michigan State team lost at home to Indiana and at Illinois btw - 2 teams you should def handle - so randomly winning this game the way they did was somewhat out of nowhere. Maybe they just improved on a lot of things in practice. These things do happen. Look at how Penn State plays now versus a month ago. That's what makes betting tough.
With that being said, Michigan got exposed for just not being that good. They've looked bad in a couple games before this, however those were all on the road so I didn't think that would matter here. The reason they lost this game was because of two reasons. One, nerves with the rivalry. Michigan State in football and basketball is always the looser team in this matchup for whatever reason. Michigan State had nothing to lose coming in. Michigan had hammered everyone at home so winning would just be a big bonus. The second reason they lost is just because it's a bad matchup. Michigan State is the far more athletic team and when they actually prepare before the game and give good effort, which they clearly don't always do but did today, they can be very tough to score on. Michigan has no guards that penetrate the paint well and draw fouls, etc. They're like Wisky and rely a lot on ball movement and finding some holes in the defense and open threes. But Michigan State didn't make mental errors like the lesser teams in the conference usually do and protected the paint and forced them to the 3 point line where almost all the shots were contested. They got more length than the other teams in the Big Ten so if you don't have shot creators or guys with real athleticism and they don't make mental mistakes on top of that you get locked down. This is just flat out a bad matchup for Michigan as they aren't a great offensive team and jack up too many 3 pointers. You need easy points in the paint to be a real contender and they don't do that. Yeah, they got guys like Teske who have some skills. But they don't have a premier post player and they don't have explosive guards who can get to the rim and draw fouls, create their own offense, etc. Poole is a good player, but not quite at that level and he doesn't have other guards to supplement him.
But hey, congrats. Moral of the story though is none of the teams in the Big Ten are that good. They're all flawed. Michigan State does have the highest ceiling, but their floor may also be lower than Purdue or Michigan when they're off. My prediction is only 2 teams from the Big Ten make the Sweet 16, possibly only 1 depending on the matchups. You get an overseeded team like VA Tech at a 6 and it'll obviously be easier for a Purdue or Michigan to advance.
You made a bad play that got there and you end up looking like a genius. I doubt you were aware of the home/road split with Michigan where they are 20 points better at home, similar to Purdue. There wasn't anything to suggest Mich St would have the type of offensive success they had tonight with their injuries. They labored for 30 min vs Rutgers. More often than not that carries over, but it didn't today and that's why there is no such thing as a lock or certainty in betting. When you have a home team laying low chalk in a game the crowd is super pumped up for and they're at least equal to on paper they usually win that game. This Michigan State team lost at home to Indiana and at Illinois btw - 2 teams you should def handle - so randomly winning this game the way they did was somewhat out of nowhere. Maybe they just improved on a lot of things in practice. These things do happen. Look at how Penn State plays now versus a month ago. That's what makes betting tough.
With that being said, Michigan got exposed for just not being that good. They've looked bad in a couple games before this, however those were all on the road so I didn't think that would matter here. The reason they lost this game was because of two reasons. One, nerves with the rivalry. Michigan State in football and basketball is always the looser team in this matchup for whatever reason. Michigan State had nothing to lose coming in. Michigan had hammered everyone at home so winning would just be a big bonus. The second reason they lost is just because it's a bad matchup. Michigan State is the far more athletic team and when they actually prepare before the game and give good effort, which they clearly don't always do but did today, they can be very tough to score on. Michigan has no guards that penetrate the paint well and draw fouls, etc. They're like Wisky and rely a lot on ball movement and finding some holes in the defense and open threes. But Michigan State didn't make mental errors like the lesser teams in the conference usually do and protected the paint and forced them to the 3 point line where almost all the shots were contested. They got more length than the other teams in the Big Ten so if you don't have shot creators or guys with real athleticism and they don't make mental mistakes on top of that you get locked down. This is just flat out a bad matchup for Michigan as they aren't a great offensive team and jack up too many 3 pointers. You need easy points in the paint to be a real contender and they don't do that. Yeah, they got guys like Teske who have some skills. But they don't have a premier post player and they don't have explosive guards who can get to the rim and draw fouls, create their own offense, etc. Poole is a good player, but not quite at that level and he doesn't have other guards to supplement him.
But hey, congrats. Moral of the story though is none of the teams in the Big Ten are that good. They're all flawed. Michigan State does have the highest ceiling, but their floor may also be lower than Purdue or Michigan when they're off. My prediction is only 2 teams from the Big Ten make the Sweet 16, possibly only 1 depending on the matchups. You get an overseeded team like VA Tech at a 6 and it'll obviously be easier for a Purdue or Michigan to advance.
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