GT/CSB write-up

Cal-State Bakersfield has been enjoying a cinderella run as an 8 seed and now come up against their arguably most difficult task in Georgia Tech. It is tempting to fade the big-conference team that is getting the majority of wagers, but I just don't like the matchup for Bakersfield, nor the spot. The Roadrunners have been playing outside of themselves in this tourney and it is statistically improbable for this run to continue. A key part of their success so far has been, outside of their always stellar defense, their three-point shooting. Against Cal they shot 9/21, 43%, against Colorado State they shot 11/19, 58%, against UT Arlington they shot 10/19, 52%. On the season, however, they average only 34% from three. In their conference tournament, for instance, in two games (one win and one loss) they went but  a combined 7/32 from three. Statistics thus suggest a drop-off in performance from behind the arc and a return to the average. Georgia Tech is also no slouch on perimeter defense, averaging just 33% opposing 3 point %. Ole Miss shot 21% from three in the last round against them, before Belmont went 33%, and Indiana went 26%.  Georgia Tech's defenders have the length to disturb opposing three point shooters. Their interior defense has the length and size to force the opposing team to shoot more than they would like to behind the arc. G Tech's last two opponents attempted a combined 61 three point attempts.  Bakersfield is vastly undersized and will have to likewise attempt a lot of threes. Because of GT's length on defense and because of statistical probability, I don't expect Bakersfield to score effectively against Georgia Tech. I also don't expect them to maintain any kind of presence in the interior, where Georgia Tech has size, strength and all the other tools to dominate, not to mention the test which they've gotten from the big men in the ACC and even their ability to keep Indiana's Bryant in check in the first NIT round. Bakersfield's defense is very good at forcing turnovers and their ability to get points in transition, as opposed to relying just on their half-court offense, is a concern.  Bakersfield will force 10+ turnovers, but Bakersfield will also give away the ball more than 10 times. They are statistically even worse than GT at ball security and have given up the ball already 40 times in this tournament, while GT has forced 46 turnovers. GT will win the turnover battle, be dominant inside, and prevent Bakersfield from draining a lot of threes.  Bakersfield has a strong halfcourt defense but they have yet to face a big man of the size, strength and ability of Lammers, who I expect to have a good game. Georgia Tech has the better defense and has enough weapons on offense to score and cover. We love a cinderella but we love smart investment more. Take Georgia Tech -1.5

I just noticed about 75% of the public (1000 covers people trying to win 20 in a row, decent sample size) is on G Tech, but 61% of the team experts, the folks that know these teams the best are on the doggie.
The line has also been holding or even going down a little. This all points to Cal Bakersfield generally. Just one tool of many in the tool box. Not sure just yet on this game, GL

I go by SportsInsights which has just under 70% on GT. I usually only worry at 80% and above. But it's not something I generally worry about, especially for an NIT game. If my boys lose, it won't be because the public was on them, it will be because I missed something in my analysis. GL gumpert

@proudjagsfan 

If they keep draining every three like they've been doing all tourney then we're definitely in trouble, based on their season averages I don't find that likely. Awesome to be on the same side with you! Great call on Gonzaga! Let's get it!

Proud,  with you on GT -2 just seems too easy 

GT is road-tested, only lost at ND by 4, for instance, just beat ole miss. If csb keeps up its overachievement from behind the arc I think GT is dead and they will throw up their attempts. Csb beat colorado state away soundly and I think this is a very capable team. I know GT is the consensus bet but i'll be praying that csb's three-point shooting returns to average, then I think GT definitely covers. Stayed away from too many 'easy' winners, so I'd rather just lose now

are people STILL looking back at conf games? lol referencing flor st and ND?? and by the way, did ya see FSU get whacked?? did ya see ND get whacked?? please. While I do like GT here as well, for the one guy to reference who GT has beaten lol stop the madnesssss pleeeeeassseee!!! Good lord. CSB is a very potent team. And Im not willing to say suddenly they shoot 30 percent and regress mightily on their 3s. What I will say is the week off, yeah, that could take some of the win out of their sails. The emotional wins and all the back to back to back games in a short period...now a week off? Could affect them somehow. We shall see. But yes willing to lay the small number with GT....and play it small. You dont wanna watch CSB rock 55% 3s and kick yourself for betting alot

Just saying GT can ball on the road, as well. 

Love your wtire ups but as mean as it sounds everytime I look at your posts they turn to auto fades, I hope you win this one but I will be playing CBS

Lol I go on a long win-streak here and then I lose a few and I become auto-fade, nobody cares about the 2-0 record in my nba post last night. Dude I don't care what you think of me as a capper and I don't know why you cared to tell me that. Think csb has a good chance as i state in my write-up so good luck. I can't even view my own threads anymore because I get such garbage every time. Gotta take degen's advice of posting write-ups and not looking. I wonder how scal deals with this

If anyone thinks i'm fade material then gladly stay away from my threads, you bring zero substance or discussion material! I don't get some people! 

Not asking anyone to tail ever so I flip out when people attack my capping skills. I'm here to learn to cap better and discuss the games. What write-up do you provide bro? Why not just keep your picks to yourself then right or wrong

GL with ur wager today

I've fade Bakersfield three straight games in this post-season to avail and it's been one of the few dim spots in a pretty darn stellar tourney season for me. I said to myself that maybe it's time to stop underestimating CSB and give them their due, especially being that they're an in state team...Nope! I'm on the Yellow Jackets! Like I said, i've had a good tourney season and i've got money to burn. The Roadrunner's are gonna have to make me or break me. GT 1h and game.

I'm thinking 5k on Bako

Tell well scripted folks

Pound the roadrunners

Wow a visionary with access to "the script" good insight

Ahah jags fan why do u care so much about what ppl think...u remind me of that pistol dude...ps slam central mich, they are due

I feel your pain, jagsfan it is unreal just like you said, for example you win 6 straight lose one and your fade material. Your doing a great job and keep it up, good luck tonight, ff.

This is scary for this pick, you don't want this clown on your team. 


Brandon Lang
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G.Tech

Yea ff i can't believe people come at you! I was reading that on the nba forum And you even have a posted record to concretely justify how good you are! Thanks for the nice words and i'll always stand on your side when the obnoxious trolls come out

Fade or tail..you still have a 50% of losing. You can approach gambling two ways. 1. With thought and reasoning 2. Just picking teams based on feeling. I can tell you which one is a more successful process and over time would morph the other. Given that you're still gonna lose almost as often as you win. Analyzing the games isn't for everyone but I apperciate the effort these guys put into their research and write-ups. They won't persuade my bet either way but I do learn some things by reading these post.

Here's my good friends take:

The NIT rolls along here in Madison Square Garden and we love the public fade behind Cal State to get it done. If you are Cal State you are far more up for this game than let's say Georgia Tech is. This is a Cal State team that is very underrated and the line shows exactly why. The public simply looks at the name of the school rather than the metrics behind it but the odds-makers are aware of how good this team is. This is a team that is top 15 in the nation in defense and their offense has picked up quite a bit lately. This team just went into UT Arlington a top 75 team on the road and played great winning 80-76, just scored 81 points at Colorado State winning that game on the road as well and beat California 73-66 on the road - an even better team than Georgia Tech. So why not beat this team on neutral footing here in MSG? Georgia Tech for as good as they are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in America outside the top 275 and they face an elite defense today - away from home where they have had success. We like Cal State's ability to defend, them to be up for this game and likely win this game outright this evening. We also have a small lean on the Under but we'll simply roll with the side to keep things simple here.

Lmao at calling GT unmotivated. That's absurd and shows he hasn't seen GT play or Pastner coach