Guidance - what do you look for?

Ok, going to try to really think this post out and appreciate everyones comments and your thinking/reasoning on how/why you choose a team. 

I have gambled off and on for 12 years.  Mainly, horse racing and baseball.  Most recently I have dabbled into the NFL and college/pro football and college basketball.  I have never bet the NBA, don't follow them at all, so I don't know if I ever will.

When betting on a basketball game, what is it that you look for that makes you pull the trigger one way or another?  I have been under the impression that for the most part, if a line moves up, go with the favorite, if a line moves down, go with the underdog.  I know that the public is the square money and you got to watch what the sharps do.  The general thinking is go against the public.  Well, with that reasoning, if the so called sharps drive the line down, from say -4 to -3, if games are really "rigged" like some believe, then logically wouldn't you want to go with the favorite?  My thinking on that is if 70% of the public is on the favorite and 30% of the sharps money comes in on the underdog, wouldn't Vegas want the money pouring in from the sharps?  Most square money will be bets ranging lets say $100 - to maybe $1000.  Most sharp money, the big bettors are $1,000 into the 10,000's +. Just seems to me that if games are rigged to favor Vegas and bookies, then you would want to go against the sharps.  I've seen it go both ways, good example last night, Monmouth was an underdog, the line went down, Monmouth wins outright.  I didn't bet the game, but Rider had won 9 of the last 10 against Monmouth, of the 9, 7 they beat the spread, 1 they lost and the other was a push.  If I would have bet the game, I would have went with Rider, thus giving me a loss, which I have taken alot of the last few weeks.  Am I over thinking this? 

In my recent weeks, in college basketball, I have gotten hammered, over $2,000 in the hole to my bookie.  As in baseball, I look at most everything.  Overall record, home record vs away record, ppg overall vs home/away, margin of victory, if a home team is coming home off a road loss, who the teams just played vs who they are playing next, "trap" game scenerios, ect ect.   

A couple of games I am contemplating betting on is Seton Hall -3 over Butler.  The line has moved from -2 to -3 in favor of Hall.  Reading this site, the "trends" heavily favor S. Hall, but in their preview of the game (which I rarely pay attention to) has Seton Hall winning by 1 point.  The only time I have looked at their score prediction and rolled with it was when they were on the same page with the "team expert" prediction.  Say team experts picked Team A 12-3 over Team B and in the preview covers prediction of the final score covered the point spread.

UConn a pick over Tulsa.  Tulsa started out -1, moved down to a pick.  I think overall UConn is more talented and starting to play better ball.  If they can't favor the home team, then I am with the dog on this one. 

Looking at Virginia Tech and Missouri, taking the points.  Louisville giving up -23 right now?  Please!  Louisville wins this game no doubt, but not by 23.  Kentucky is just biding their time, waiting until March.  All they are worried about is winning a game, not covering a spread or blowing people out, so I see Missouri covering. 

Looking forward to reading to replies from whom ever is willing to pitch in their $0.02.  Thanks all. 

 

 

 

Good thread.  It's all debateable. I may be back later on this one. Good questions, and again, well written. There are a lot of good cappers on Covers and hopefully they will share some of their invaluable knowledge with you.

I tend to be a spot bettor. Look for sandwich games and games where you feel teams are being over or under valued. 

I look for suspicious line movement as well. On 1/7 Illinois st open at -14 and by morning was sitting at -12 with hardly any money going Drakes direction. Vegas will move lines to put it in bettors minds that they had it wrong to start with. Ill st. dusted them by 36

Topkaiki - 

Well, if nobody's going to repond then I'll start by committing to be back in a few hours brother. I think that nobody wants to give away their "Trade Secrets"  Who cares-they vary from one to the next. I'll tell you my thoughts.

I feel like action is moving those lines however I don't think Virginia was ever at 22 legitimately. Bradley opened at 9 on my book and because they are at home they are getting a little love. I played N, iowa at -8. The ill. st. example I referred to was them at home and hardly any action on drake as a road team and the line dropped 2 points against the home team. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 cover tonight though but n. iowa is the only 1 of the three I will play. Good Luck

QMICH - 

Great question relative to capping college basketball.  There are a lot of approaches and I doubt there is any one correct way to do it.  My biggest advantage is being a "fan of the game" and watching the games and the final scores of the day.  I use this subjective information with real, objective analyses.

First, do yourself a favor and, every year, buy Blue Ribbon College Yearbook.  This thing is compendious.  You don't have to read every word, just familiarize yourself with the information.  It provides very valuable stats and info on every Division I team, at a glance.

Second, I use a couple websites for current power rating information.  Sagarin and Real Time RPI are the two I use most.  Familiarize yourself with the data. If you know anything about stats, these numbers will help with your power ratings.  RPI even provides score predictions - called "scouting."

Next, evaluate the lines.  Ask yourself "Why?" Why is this line set the way it is?  Is it solid?  Is it fishy?  Use your subjective and objective information to truly evaluate it.  While doing this, be sure to check on injury information.  Go to the team's website and see who's on the roster for the game.

You must also consider subjective criteria concerning what the two teams are playing for, if anything.  For instance, is it a rivalry game?  Computers are great at crunching the numbers.  But, I have yet to see a "Motivation Algorithm" that determines which team will play hardest.

I ONLY bet on days when there are plenty of games to choose from.  Oddmakers are very good at what they do.  If they are hanging lines on a dozen games, they will often have the advantage.  But on Saturdays when they hang lines on dozens of contests, you can have the advantage if you are very choosy. 

I tend to stick to the "mid-majors" and teams that are under the radar (Cal Poly and UT Arlington have been money this year).  I don't think there is much value in the big marquee matchups until we get to the tournaments.  You might consider specializing in a conference or two that you know something about or like to follow.

Also, do not trust the information you get from ESPN (the E stands for Entertainment, not Education) and similar sports outlets.  This is spoon-fed crap to the masses.

Once you develop intuition and instinct - trust it!

I hope this helps - good luck to you

At my book Ark opened at-3 and is still at -3

N. Iowa opened at -9 and is currently at -8

You cant just go by the line movement only because vegas will move lines to move money from one side to the other and they will also move lines to make you think they are trying to move you in one direction or another (reverse  line movement). I played N. Iowa because I think the are the much better team. If I were to play the Tennessee game I would take the hogs as well as they are playing better ball at the moment having won 7 straight and I think covered in 6 of the 7.

Also I have noticed that the open lines on the covers match up pages are notoriously inaccurate.

RicoCortez - 

If the card is huge I narrow it down.

Look for live home dogs.... Bad record but win at home

Trust your gut... I look at the opening lines and jot them down... then look at box scores, last 5 games, home/away... who's next.

If the line moves in my favor and my info and injurys,etc check out I usually have a play.

Follow history to a slight degree... Clemson has never won @ Chapel Hill ... they may cover but will they Cash in on the ML.

Just play 3 to 5... try to stick with baseball and hockey ... if you do your homework here you'll make $$$. The NBA is like a boat... you're just throwing money at it and get very little enjoyment from it.

That's my .02

Cardholic

Something lately I have been looking at are teams coming off of a tough road game and traveling to another tough one. For instance, Ohio State won an OT thriller @ Minnesota last week then had to travel to a hostile environment @ IU, which was a situation I didnt trust Ohio State in. Turned out I was right. Not saying this works all the time. But tonight I look at games like Tennessee playing Bama and West Virginia playing Oklahoma. Tenn and West Virginia are both coming off of home losses to a ranked opponent and are both playing again at home tonight against another ranked opponents. In these situations I personally like West Virginia and Tennessee to cover the spreads because I dont see them losing back to back home games to ranked opponents.

Like I said it probably doesnt work all the time or anything but this is just something small I like to take into consideration. Im not saying blindly fade situations like these but I think you get the point.

GO CARDS!

Chefkaos - 

I once only looked at statistics in making a play in CBB.  We all know how these games all end really.  One team is going to be ahead or in the case of a tight game for sure.....I want to be on the side of the team that shoots higher % from the FT line.  That is one stat this is still very important in every single game it seems like.  I now look much closer at the lines.  Not always but more times than not if a team is a 1 to 1.5 underdog I take a closer look at those games.  THE #6 is key....Last night in CFB Ohio St was a 6 point dog in game and at half time and covered both spreads.  In CBB 6 point home dogs hit at a very high rate.  Conference standings sort out a lot of the guesswork in who is more likely to win the game outright.  Trends in CBB can be decieving if you look further than this year since kids leave etc.....If the trend is on under or over for a long period that tells you coach A focuses on Defense or Coach B focuses on Offense.  Good defensive teams that turn the other over get easy baskets.  I dont know why maybe someone can explain but the Under has been cashing more than the Over this year.  That is the one bet right now that I look closely at right now.  There are many systems out there.  Kempom which I dont understand Martingale with 3 or 4 bets basically doubling on any loss to make money on any win.  If bet A is 1 unit bet B is 2+ units and C bet is 4-5 units.  I think that NBA would be the best to use this type system.  I honestly dont know how you make money betting on NBA games really.  You never know who will play hard.  Long season and only thing you can count on is players playing hard in 4th quarter.  Only way I have made any money on NBA is on Fri Sat nights waiting til halftime then taking the home team if they are behind.  First half of NBA games are much like NFL....They really mean nothing except setting up for the money quarter....4th...Halftime adjustments coaches in NFL have track record easier to read than NBA.  BASKETBALL is a long grind you cannot risk more than 2 or 3% on any wager for sustained over a long period success.  If you risk half and win  you will risk 3/4 and lose.  I have been tracking COVERS CONSENSUS PICKS.  ALL PLAYERs picks lose more times than not.  Top 10% when they are the same as Consensus Experts do pretty well. Consensus Experts picks have been doing surprisingly well.   Last advice is get to know 2 or 3 conferences well that you can see play live.  I generally have play on teams and play against.  Kentucky has been a play against in conference play.  Play on teams for me are Seton Hall and Villinova. You now have to pay higher price for them due to their spread record.  Teams spread record move towards 50% mark over the seaon.  Lines change to make that happen.  If they are killing it against the spread Vegas will adjust.  If they are horrible ATS that will also be adjusted...Tennessee is horrible ATS.. Davidson Seton Hall Monmouth have been great ATS..I look for them to digress to the mean at some point.  Nuff said by me....Hope some info is useful if not my apologies for cluttering your thread.   Great thread so far by the way.  WIsh there were more like it.

I love the ponies to card....betting college basketball...all about matchups....I feel the key is to watch as much basketball as possible....get a very good feel for it...then every day go to the injury list,see the line match up the scores...get a notebook keep track of all teams....look at their past 5 games that gives you a good indication of how the team is playing.....look for a team with a top score that can sink the dagger....nice rebounding team....put your time into it and you will do fine...just like anything else in life all about work...MR.BIGGS

Raider63 - and I agree, this has been a very informative thread.  I absolutely did not think to consider the ft% in spreads that are very close, good call on that one.  

card get yourself two online books...I have 5 shop for lines...these books take credit cards or moneygram go to your local walmart for that....in most states you can deposit and withdrawl up to 795...they do charge fees 7 to send and give you one free payout a month...that's also why I have 5 books plus my vegas trips...if you want to play it safe do not do parlays or teasers at all....no over unders...or even halftime bets just straight bet ATS...and try to limit your plays to one a day....Saturday maybe two plays....its hard when you see that game on tv and you think you need to bet on it...just stay focused and stick to your plan...BIGGS

Thanks Card-  2 other stats that get overlooked a lot.  Turnovers and takeaways....When I played BBall my coach looked at turnovers and gave them 1 point apiece for the difference.  Seems to have stood the test of time.  Rebounding margin tells a story as well.  WIth rebounding margin you have to factor in FG% as well since when teams shoot high % there is no rebound to get.  Common sense tells you the more shots you take the more you score.  Second chances on offensive rebounding is huge difference in games when a team is not good Defensive Rebounding team shooting low %.......Shots per game vs shots made per game generally will let you know the temp the team likes to play at.  The hard part is at times if a coach feels the other team has the edge offensively or fast break then they may slow down the game.  Illinois is one team that no matter what is only going to look to score through their offense........My Favorite team of all time RUNNIN REBELS OF UNLV could play offensive sets but scored a majority of their points in fast break driving and kicking out for Hunt Anthony to hit a 3 pointer.....Duke plays that way now....Live and die by the 3......Tonight I have spotted a very interesting game with VCU and Rhoade Island.  RI 3 point dog at home.  VCU lives and dies by the 3 pointer....Looking closely RI one of the top teams in the country defending against the 3.  All I hear is this isnt VCU teams of old.  I have not watched them play yet this year.  I am not saying either way but I will certainly be checking on the outcome of this game....Betting against VCU is not a good idea generally.  3 point home dogs seem to cover and win games more times than not......3 point faves are trap lines many times..........BIGGS  AGGIE  ALLSTAR and a few others always have good insight into games.  If you want to narrow down games check my thread and fade or follow....Last night I pretty much called and layed out the National Championship game to a T.  I also had one play on Monmouth +4....They won outright....When I post a writeup and solid reasoning on a game like Montana over Idaho State and several others I have been right.....Not saying that will or will not continue so like I said follow or fade me my goal is between 55 + %. At that % I will win money and at NCAA Tourney time take my money and leave my stake for next year.   I HAVE NEVER WON A BASEBALL GAME I BET ON IN MY LIFE>>>>>>lol......Just being honest

Here are the games I am looking at - would love opinions.  Just really at a point where I am 2nd guessing myself and feel dizzier than a frog in a gas can. 

It's hard to teach someone how to bet this sport. There so many different aspects to consider and there are nuances to the game.