Guru's BB Picks with extensive writeups, 2009/10 (52-39-0) +22.62 ,2010/2011 0-1

last night 0-1

DUQUESNE +10½ over Pittsburgh Pinnacle

That 3-1 record that Duquesne has actually means nothing because they’ve beaten up on three dregs but it’s the way in which they’ve won that means something. Duquesne not only won but they buried three teams by 30 points or more and barely broke a sweat in doing so. The Dukes are an outstanding shooting team. No matter whom you play the three-point shot is the same distance and right now the Dukes are hitting about 11 triples a game. What’s even more interesting is the fact that the Panthers rank a lowly 242nd in the nation in 3-point field goal defense. The Panthers don’t have many weaknesses but perimeter defense has been one and isn’t basketball all about matchups? We also have a high ranked team playing a nobody and when you wager on high ranked teams in situations like this, you’re almost always going to pay a premium to do so. Also note that the Panthers come in with an unblemished 7-0 mark and they beat the team (Robert Morris) by 19 points that the Dukes only loss came against. That fact also has this line inflated and it’s just not a good idea to pay extra to wager on specific teams in certain situations. This is one of those games. Play: #588 Duquesne +10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).   

LOYOLA CHICAGO +3½ over Butler Pinnacle

The Ramblers are not a recognizable school and certainly not mentioned in many conversations when talking college ball. On the other hand, the Butler Bulldogs are perhaps the most recognizable little school in college ball. In fact, you all might remember that Butler made it to the NCAA Championship game last year and lost by a bucket to the Dukies. The Bulldogs make the dance every year because they dominate the Horizon League every year. Having said that, what we have her is a classic case here of a reputable program being a small favorite on the road against an unfamiliar school. Last season the Bulldogs escaped the Gentile Center with a 48-47 decision and five of the last nine meetings have been decided by four or fewer points. That’s significant and so is the fact that the Ramblers are 7-0. Loyola returns seven experienced players from a last season's 14-16 team, including all five starters plus Walt Gibler, the Horizon League's sixth man of the year. The Ramblers have five players averaging in double figures and they're outscoring foes by 15.4 points per game. They haven’t played anyone significant yet but neither have the Bulldogs and it would appear they’re experiencing a severe hangover from last year’s incredible run. Butler comes in with just a 3-2 record with losses to Louisville and Evansville. The Bulldogs three wins have come against Marion College, Sienna and Ball St. Butler will be without starting point guard Ronald Nored, who suffered a head injury earlier this season and that hurts. This a huge game for the home team and they absolutely have a legit shot at beating this intruder for the first time in a long time. Play: #560 Loyola Chicago +3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).