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***GWarner27's 1/10 CB Picks (59-32-3 64.8% YTD)***

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Posted: #26
no new thread for today?
 
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Posted: #27
Duke -7.5

Kenpom has Duke winning by 16
 
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Posted: #28

Nice card today Bro, like all games except USF, u should look into SDST

GL

 

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by chinawigga:

no new thread for today?


i figured it's a waste when my record hasn't changed since Sunday

locked in:
South Florida +13.5 (-110) @ Cincinnati
-The Bulls have been very good to me this year covering in losses to Cleveland State and UCF. Cincinnati has played one of the weakest non-conference schedules and I think this line is far too high. Cincy isn't good enough as a team to push the pace for 40 minutes and I don't think Mick Cronin will want to do that even though it would clearly benefit Cincy here. Stan Heath will slow the pace, which makes the 13.5 points look like 20 (similar to my reasoning in the SLU-Temple game on Sunday when 15.5 felt like 25) and it also requires a blowout to lose. The number is above the point when USF would stop fouling and even then that would require a team that always struggles at the line to make a ton of FTs or to sink a ton of shots. Cincy isn't that team against a tough defense like USF. The Bulls will need a good effort from Gilchrist & Famous on the interior because their guards aren't great scorers, which could be tough with Gates and Ibrahima Thomas on the interior. I think they can hold their own and make it tough for UC on the offensive end so as long as it's a battle this should be a tight game.
Villanova -4 (-110) vs. Louisville
-This line opened too short and I thought it would move a ton. It did not, but I'll stick with 'Nova because in a battle of overrated teams the visitor is far more overrated. The Wildcats are guard heavy and will be able to break the press while they're going to get more calls at home and they will shoot better there, too. Meanwhile, UL has trouble scoring enough at home as compared to the road and they will struggle here with the speed on the perimeter and Nova's length on the interior. I'm expecting Nova to get some easy baskets after breaking the press and they shoot FT well so if they can't cover the 4 then I really don't know what to say.
 
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Posted: #30
usf and nova are the only two plays right? if so, imma stay off the comp haha

thanks a lot
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by woopdurritis:

Duke -7.5

Kenpom has Duke winning by 16


Odd to say the least, but I can't go off of kenpom for everything yet I do listen to him for totals plays just to make sure i'm in the realm.

I think FSU is the right side, but if Duke gets off to a good start or even if they don't and hit a few 3pt shots then I'm not sure FSU will keep up. Duke is also the master of the frontdoor cover, as I'm sure you know, so no thanks even tho FSU's defense is unreal
 
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Posted: #32

SDSU OVER UNLV

Unlv are pretenders and will get beat again to the Aztecs.

 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by wizkid30:

Nice card today Bro, like all games except USF, u should look into SDST

GL

 



If I could have grabbed it at 4.5 like it was for a bit last night I would have, but the FT woes scare me for covering a 5.5 line. I think they will win this game and they need to if they're a championship contender, which I think they are.

leans:
GTown -2.5
Hall -3
 
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Posted: #35
The way I look at it is FSU obviously has great defense but their offense is anemic and even non-existent at times.  They will need to play their best defense for this one to be close own the stretch... Like you said any Duke run 10-0 or 40% from downtown = no shot for FSU... they simply can't put up points the same way as Duke.
 
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Posted: #36
gw- Long time brother, keep up the wining.

I have been writing down the the kenpom final scores 2 days in advance just to keep track. Its amazing the amount of times the predicted final score on a big game is the opening line.

Playing GT, Cuse and the Hall tonight. GL
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by woopdurritis:

The way I look at it is FSU obviously has great defense but their offense is anemic and even non-existent at times.  They will need to play their best defense for this one to be close own the stretch... Like you said any Duke run 10-0 or 40% from downtown = no shot for FSU... they simply can't put up points the same way as Duke.


completely agree, woop


drb-- I have looked at kenpom a lot in the past, but i haven't noticed how much the lines mirror him and I actually like it because it's given me a few winners this year wherever I don't agree with Ken
 
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Posted: #38
Good Luck  
 
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Posted: #39
huge card today...

add
Seton Hall -3 (-105) @ DePaul
-The Pirates are far better than DePaul and they have the guards in Jordan Theodore and Keon Lawrence to break Oliver Purnell's press. More importantly, I don't think DePaul has the shooters on the perimeter to beat the zone. They may not even have one shooter considering they make 27.6% of their 3pt shots good for 335th in the nation. The Hall aren't a great group of players, but their coach Kevin Willard knows what he's doing and this game is one that the Pirates know they can win and they will be motivated to take charge early. SHU's heart and soul Jeremy Hazell may be back, too, which is unbelievable news if true.
Georgetown -2.5 (-103) vs. Pittsburgh
-I've been looking to fade Pitt because I don't think they're good and this is as good of a time as any. I was hoping for a -1.5 here, but I think GTown has the shooters to ice the game down the stretch. The main reason for this play is I think GU matches up well on defense with whatever Pitt wants to do. The Panthers won't win if they run tonight and I think they'll lose if they play like they used to, too. Julian Vaughn should be able to keep Gary McGhee off the glass, Chris Wright will stop Woodall off the bench or Wannamaker if he draws that assignment. The only real offensive threats for Pitt are Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs mainly because Gilbert Brown is only consequential when he gets left wide open because their opponents can't stop those two guys. I think we see Jason Clark and Austin Freeman slowing the go-two-guys (see what I did there?) and the Pitt bench doesn't feature any scorers. Besides the HCA, this game is a must-win for GTown and I think they get it done.
Syracuse-St. John's UNDER 62 (-110, 1H)
-Avoiding full-game unders for now to avoid overtime, especially in this one because I think it will be close. Both teams will play zone and MSG isn't friendly to long-distance shooting. I think buckets will be hard to come by in the interior, and both teams are poor from the line. Syracuse shoots 64.4% and St. John's is at 69.2% when you want your team to be above 70% to be considered competent/good. Hoping we don't get into the bonus early...
 
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Posted: #40
GL
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

huge card today...

add
Seton Hall -3 (-105) @ DePaul
-The Pirates are far better than DePaul and they have the guards in Jordan Theodore and Keon Lawrence to break Oliver Purnell's press. More importantly, I don't think DePaul has the shooters on the perimeter to beat the zone. They may not even have one shooter considering they make 27.6% of their 3pt shots good for 335th in the nation. The Hall aren't a great group of players, but their coach Kevin Willard knows what he's doing and this game is one that the Pirates know they can win and they will be motivated to take charge early. SHU's heart and soul Jeremy Hazell may be back, too, which is unbelievable news if true.
Georgetown -2.5 (-103) vs. Pittsburgh
-I've been looking to fade Pitt because I don't think they're good and this is as good of a time as any. I was hoping for a -1.5 here, but I think GTown has the shooters to ice the game down the stretch. The main reason for this play is I think GU matches up well on defense with whatever Pitt wants to do. The Panthers won't win if they run tonight and I think they'll lose if they play like they used to, too. Julian Vaughn should be able to keep Gary McGhee off the glass, Chris Wright will stop Woodall off the bench or Wannamaker if he draws that assignment. The only real offensive threats for Pitt are Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs mainly because Gilbert Brown is only consequential when he gets left wide open because their opponents can't stop those two guys. I think we see Jason Clark and Austin Freeman slowing the go-two-guys (see what I did there?) and the Pitt bench doesn't feature any scorers. Besides the HCA, this game is a must-win for GTown and I think they get it done.
Syracuse-St. John's UNDER 62 (-110, 1H)
-Avoiding full-game unders for now to avoid overtime, especially in this one because I think it will be close. Both teams will play zone and MSG isn't friendly to long-distance shooting. I think buckets will be hard to come by in the interior, and both teams are poor from the line. Syracuse shoots 64.4% and St. John's is at 69.2% when you want your team to be above 70% to be considered competent/good. Hoping we don't get into the bonus early...


this is the final card correct?
 
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Posted: #42
any word if juan fernandez is playing? Thanks for the write ups... good luck 2nite
 
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Posted: #43
wow what a cover on that 1st half cuse/st johns under

i was getting nervous at last 3 minutes when both teams decided to go on a scoring rampage

thanks a lot!
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by chinawigga:

wow what a cover on that 1st half cuse/st johns under

i was getting nervous at last 3 minutes when both teams decided to go on a scoring rampage

thanks a lot!


yeah they started running like crazy and making every 3pt shot they took. F that, but a win is a win...

Thursday notes:
rich 9-11, minn 6-7, wvu 8-9, drex 3-4, or st 1-2 (& over), ole miss 7-8, unc 7-9, nmsu 6-8, stan 8-10, boi 2-3, cal 1-3, ore 4-5

leans:
Purdue -4
PROV +9.5 (hope it jumps up)
VT +6 (need more points though)
Oregon St +3.5
 
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Posted: #45
my jaw dropped when I heard Hazell was back 
 
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Posted: #46
good night my friend
 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

my jaw dropped when I heard Hazell was back 


I actually played it before i knew he was cleared, and the 23 points certainly helped
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