Last night we swept the board in the NW game . First half under & under hit. + 5.5 & + 7.5 also came in. Those NW boys can play. Boo Buie can get to the next level, simply because of his heart. Tonight we have SH @ small dogs against a team the public loves betting on. Public loves teams that can score, which is Xavier. I look @ teams that can defend. X is all around better than SH in offensive efficiency, they’re even a tad bit better on offense away than SH is @ home. X’s offensive efficiency away rates @ a 1.065, while SH’s home offense rates @ a 1.003. Great ! But when you look @ the defensive metrics between both teams , it’s night & day. Hall’s defensive efficiency @ home comes in @ 0.868 compared to X’s defense on the rd comes in @ 1.057. This is huge, and this is where SH wins. They are both strong teams in the positive. X rates + 9.3 & Hall rates + 8.1. Defensively on the floor, where most teams get their pts from, X rates @ 49.4% , where SH rates @ 41.0%. This is a huge discrepancy. Hall ranks on D anywhere between 13th & 23rd nationally and X rates anywhere between 59th & 83rd respectively. Different sites use different data. I use the sites I trust most. SH allows 64.4 per game , where X allows 74.8 pts per game. This is where I really see the largest advantage though of all. SH is (21st) in the nation @ defensive possessions, where X ranks (235) nationally @ 30.2 for X & 24.8 for Hall. X will have less opportunities to score than Hall will. Also Freemantle is still out, he’s by far their best defender. I don’t care about who can out score who. If you can’t defend, you won’t win many road games especially. SH does turn the ball over too much though. They’re 17.9 % in turnover ratio compared to X’s 15.6% in turnovers. X have only covered the spread 10 times in their games , where they were favored by more than 1.5 pts, that’s it. SH is 6-5 when dogs of 1.5 or more ATS. True shooting defense. SH 51.3 % ( 53rd ) nationally, X is ( 140th ) nationally @ a 53.8 % clip. I’m laying 550/500 on Hall and another 100/105 on the ML. This play would be bigger, if not for Hall turnover %. GL to us all.
@Rolexsports
Hot Forum Topics
