I should clarify when I say KP. I use all of KP stats but not his line predictions. For that I used my own formula which is AdjO+/-AdjD vs AdjO+/-D. I then break it out by possessions in 40 minutes and use home away free throw stats per 100 possessions and do the same. Lastly I give 3 to the home team just like Sagarin. I have a final win% that I can spit out but 25% of that lets me factor in history and present conditions. Don't get me wrong KP is one of the best statisticians around but I think he would agree that capping is not his game.
Gotcha! Makes sense now that you said this. Thanks a lot!
I should clarify when I say KP. I use all of KP stats but not his line predictions. For that I used my own formula which is AdjO+/-AdjD vs AdjO+/-D. I then break it out by possessions in 40 minutes and use home away free throw stats per 100 possessions and do the same. Lastly I give 3 to the home team just like Sagarin. I have a final win% that I can spit out but 25% of that lets me factor in history and present conditions. Don't get me wrong KP is one of the best statisticians around but I think he would agree that capping is not his game.
Gotcha! Makes sense now that you said this. Thanks a lot!
Seems like whenever a line swings like it just did with
USC/Arizona St, where the unranked home team goes from getting points to giving
points to the ranked team, the home team always covers. Just like Indiana and
Cal last night. I could be wrong, but Ive noticed it alot and I'm changing my bet to Arizona St.
Seems like whenever a line swings like it just did with
USC/Arizona St, where the unranked home team goes from getting points to giving
points to the ranked team, the home team always covers. Just like Indiana and
Cal last night. I could be wrong, but Ive noticed it alot and I'm changing my bet to Arizona St.
I usually have a longer, more in depth write up but I will keep this one a bit shorter. In Ivy League play all six of Yale point totals have gone over 133. Their lowest point total was 138 versus Penn. Their average Ivy game totals out at 148 because of their ability to throw 80 ppg on their opponent. Dartmouth has gone over the 133 point total five out of six games in Ivy League play. Their average ppg total is 139.
Yale would have to play 15 points under their AVERAGE GAME TOTAL!! About the equivalent of playing a 16 minute half. Yale is best in the Ivy at rebounds and 2nd chance points should be plentiful. Dartmouth has been sitting in the 70's in league play and what I like about them is they're #1 in the Ivy knocking down free throws at 73%.
Both teams would have to play WAY BELOW their average Ivy League game NOT to hit 133. Let's see what happens!! BOL Fellow $$$$ players!!
I usually have a longer, more in depth write up but I will keep this one a bit shorter. In Ivy League play all six of Yale point totals have gone over 133. Their lowest point total was 138 versus Penn. Their average Ivy game totals out at 148 because of their ability to throw 80 ppg on their opponent. Dartmouth has gone over the 133 point total five out of six games in Ivy League play. Their average ppg total is 139.
Yale would have to play 15 points under their AVERAGE GAME TOTAL!! About the equivalent of playing a 16 minute half. Yale is best in the Ivy at rebounds and 2nd chance points should be plentiful. Dartmouth has been sitting in the 70's in league play and what I like about them is they're #1 in the Ivy knocking down free throws at 73%.
Both teams would have to play WAY BELOW their average Ivy League game NOT to hit 133. Let's see what happens!! BOL Fellow $$$$ players!!
This looks like a great concept/thread. Is there a list of cappers with their L10 or season record? I only ask because I just found this thread and want to understand which $$$$plays are worth following.
USC Holmey Thanks for all the work and time you are putting into this.
GL all
Thanks man!
I have been out all day, but I will get a Standings/Results page up in the next hour. We have only been going for a couple weeks, and everyone is limited to 4 $$$$'s per week, so there is no Last-10 or anything like that. Just keep checking the thread for the Standings post soon.
This looks like a great concept/thread. Is there a list of cappers with their L10 or season record? I only ask because I just found this thread and want to understand which $$$$plays are worth following.
USC Holmey Thanks for all the work and time you are putting into this.
GL all
Thanks man!
I have been out all day, but I will get a Standings/Results page up in the next hour. We have only been going for a couple weeks, and everyone is limited to 4 $$$$'s per week, so there is no Last-10 or anything like that. Just keep checking the thread for the Standings post soon.
I'm a noob on Covers, so I am not sure if this means anything, but it was just in my Inbox(?).........
Good day!
The Covers team has started a new program to recognize some of our key Forum members. As a token of thanks for your participation on the Covers site you are this week's Featured Community Member. Your profile is featured on the Community Home page.
I'm a noob on Covers, so I am not sure if this means anything, but it was just in my Inbox(?).........
Good day!
The Covers team has started a new program to recognize some of our key Forum members. As a token of thanks for your participation on the Covers site you are this week's Featured Community Member. Your profile is featured on the Community Home page.
I am going to try it one more time to get over the .500 mark.
Things I have learned. Never play ranked team vs no rank. Staying away from obvious good teams vs bad teams on stats.
My criteria will now be this. Play an even caliber team but take the home team if their ATS record is better than the other team and they are fav. Lets see how it goes.
This one fits the criteria
Niagara Purple Eagles (6-19 overall, 11-10-1 ATS, 9-13 O/U) vs. Saint Peter’s Peacocks (9-13 overall, 11-7 ATS, 9-9 O/U)
Niagara can't ball. 335th in the nation on offense peters can't ball either but a tad better. 314th in offense
What is a big difference is that st. peters is 86th in the nation in defenses.
So we have st. peters who has a better SU record, better ATS record, a tad better offense and a way better defense and they are playing at home.
Niagara
1-4 ATS in their last five after a straight up loss
1-5 ATS in their last six overall
1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MAAC
Saint Peter’s
5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage below .400
Give me St. Peter -7.5 $$$
See the dayton game? Dayton is ranked, beast mode at home and only laying -2 right now? Are you serious?
I am going to try it one more time to get over the .500 mark.
Things I have learned. Never play ranked team vs no rank. Staying away from obvious good teams vs bad teams on stats.
My criteria will now be this. Play an even caliber team but take the home team if their ATS record is better than the other team and they are fav. Lets see how it goes.
This one fits the criteria
Niagara Purple Eagles (6-19 overall, 11-10-1 ATS, 9-13 O/U) vs. Saint Peter’s Peacocks (9-13 overall, 11-7 ATS, 9-9 O/U)
Niagara can't ball. 335th in the nation on offense peters can't ball either but a tad better. 314th in offense
What is a big difference is that st. peters is 86th in the nation in defenses.
So we have st. peters who has a better SU record, better ATS record, a tad better offense and a way better defense and they are playing at home.
Niagara
1-4 ATS in their last five after a straight up loss
1-5 ATS in their last six overall
1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MAAC
Saint Peter’s
5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage below .400
Give me St. Peter -7.5 $$$
See the dayton game? Dayton is ranked, beast mode at home and only laying -2 right now? Are you serious?
I'm a noob on Covers, so I am not sure if this means anything, but it was just in my Inbox(?).........
Good day!
The Covers team has started a new program to recognize some of our key Forum members. As a token of thanks for your participation on the Covers site you are this week's Featured Community Member. Your profile is featured on the Community Home page.
I'm a noob on Covers, so I am not sure if this means anything, but it was just in my Inbox(?).........
Good day!
The Covers team has started a new program to recognize some of our key Forum members. As a token of thanks for your participation on the Covers site you are this week's Featured Community Member. Your profile is featured on the Community Home page.
Tuesday $$$$ W/L: 10-2 TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 66-49-1 I had missed a winner last week from jimmybigmits, so I added another W to the overall record to date.
$$$$ OF THE
DAY: STANDINGS: I can't type out everyone's name
any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a
minimum number of $$$$'s.
MINIMUM OF 2 $$$$'s
MADE(Tomorrow, the minimum will be moved up to 3 $$$$'s made)
Tuesday $$$$ W/L: 10-2 TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 66-49-1 I had missed a winner last week from jimmybigmits, so I added another W to the overall record to date.
$$$$ OF THE
DAY: STANDINGS: I can't type out everyone's name
any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a
minimum number of $$$$'s.
MINIMUM OF 2 $$$$'s
MADE(Tomorrow, the minimum will be moved up to 3 $$$$'s made)
Kuran Iverson was a GTD for the Rams due to a concussion, but has been upgraded to probable. He was in shoot-around this morning. I capped this game with the assumption Iverson sits, and I like the play even better if he plays.
Dayton has a decent offense, but their bread and butter is their defense. They box out well, defend the interior as a team well, and are able to block shots. Their one weakness? Three pointers, especially if their opponent has multiple deep weapons. Take their most recent game at home vs. Duquesne - they only won by 2 while allowing 11 threes. If Iverson sits, I expect Jared Terrell and Four McGlynn to have a great day behind the arc. If Iverson plays, Iverson and Jarvis Garrett should light it up. I also see Dayton having problems with Hassan Martin
down low when it comes to box-outs and the ground-and-pound.
Dayton has had 5 straight games of cupcake opponents. Their last actual test was about a month ago at St. Bonny. I think the lull in competitive action for almost a whole month will be a shocker when Rhode Island tests them. Dayton also hasn't played a tough opponent on the road since Vandy on December 9th.. 2 months ago!
One angle I love is that Rhode Island is a defensive-minded team. They run a man defense and I see Dayton having trouble with their usual inside-the-arc playing style. Rhode Island's man D will limit close looks and force Dayton to shoot the three, which they're not terrible at (36%), but it's the worst aspect of their offensive game. RI's defense forces team to pass-pass-pass to the guy with a look from three. It works exceptionally well against inside teams like Dayton. RI forces teams to make free throws but will not give easy twos. Huge problem for Dayton here, who thrives off good-look twos and struggles with free throws. Did I mention Dayton shoots free throws at 67%, 268th in the nation?
I'm excited to see Ryan Center (capacity about 8k) tonight, as this is a big game for RI. Early fans will get a Jarvis Garrett mask (like those white Jason masks), and 1,500 fans will get matching t-shirts.
Kuran Iverson was a GTD for the Rams due to a concussion, but has been upgraded to probable. He was in shoot-around this morning. I capped this game with the assumption Iverson sits, and I like the play even better if he plays.
Dayton has a decent offense, but their bread and butter is their defense. They box out well, defend the interior as a team well, and are able to block shots. Their one weakness? Three pointers, especially if their opponent has multiple deep weapons. Take their most recent game at home vs. Duquesne - they only won by 2 while allowing 11 threes. If Iverson sits, I expect Jared Terrell and Four McGlynn to have a great day behind the arc. If Iverson plays, Iverson and Jarvis Garrett should light it up. I also see Dayton having problems with Hassan Martin
down low when it comes to box-outs and the ground-and-pound.
Dayton has had 5 straight games of cupcake opponents. Their last actual test was about a month ago at St. Bonny. I think the lull in competitive action for almost a whole month will be a shocker when Rhode Island tests them. Dayton also hasn't played a tough opponent on the road since Vandy on December 9th.. 2 months ago!
One angle I love is that Rhode Island is a defensive-minded team. They run a man defense and I see Dayton having trouble with their usual inside-the-arc playing style. Rhode Island's man D will limit close looks and force Dayton to shoot the three, which they're not terrible at (36%), but it's the worst aspect of their offensive game. RI's defense forces team to pass-pass-pass to the guy with a look from three. It works exceptionally well against inside teams like Dayton. RI forces teams to make free throws but will not give easy twos. Huge problem for Dayton here, who thrives off good-look twos and struggles with free throws. Did I mention Dayton shoots free throws at 67%, 268th in the nation?
I'm excited to see Ryan Center (capacity about 8k) tonight, as this is a big game for RI. Early fans will get a Jarvis Garrett mask (like those white Jason masks), and 1,500 fans will get matching t-shirts.
@truthcapper best write up of the day. I am in agreement that this is a great play. URI's back is against the wall here and they are going to give Dayton their best shot tonight.
@truthcapper best write up of the day. I am in agreement that this is a great play. URI's back is against the wall here and they are going to give Dayton their best shot tonight.
There is only ONE reason that I can come up with to explain this strange line move in favor of Arizona St ... and that is dumb-azzed bettors may be mixing up Arizona St with Arizona.
There is only ONE reason that I can come up with to explain this strange line move in favor of Arizona St ... and that is dumb-azzed bettors may be mixing up Arizona St with Arizona.
This game jumped right out at me today. Monmouth has been covering for me alot this year and I dont see tonight being different. They've won 6 in a row and covered the last 5. I don't like to give the points on the road, but I dont think Rider will be able to keep up with Monmouth tonight. I look for a double digit win.
The only thing that worries me is that so much of the public is on Monmouth and the line doesn't seem to be moving at all. Always a worry for me.
This game jumped right out at me today. Monmouth has been covering for me alot this year and I dont see tonight being different. They've won 6 in a row and covered the last 5. I don't like to give the points on the road, but I dont think Rider will be able to keep up with Monmouth tonight. I look for a double digit win.
The only thing that worries me is that so much of the public is on Monmouth and the line doesn't seem to be moving at all. Always a worry for me.
dayton still 5-2 SU and 6-2 ats away. When we see lines too good to be true, we run the other way. Someone knows something fishy.
island is 12-3 SU at home but what really matters is the ATS for bettors like us.
This is the first time this year that island is a dog at home. Dayton won 8 straight games by a margin of more than 2 points. We shall see if the -2 will hold for them but if I were to bet on island, I might as well take the ML instead. Better odds that way.
dayton still 5-2 SU and 6-2 ats away. When we see lines too good to be true, we run the other way. Someone knows something fishy.
island is 12-3 SU at home but what really matters is the ATS for bettors like us.
This is the first time this year that island is a dog at home. Dayton won 8 straight games by a margin of more than 2 points. We shall see if the -2 will hold for them but if I were to bet on island, I might as well take the ML instead. Better odds that way.
Ok a teaser is a horrible play statistically but tonight how could you refuse these $$$$'s... URI +12, USC+11, Monmouth +5, Yale Over 123!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok a teaser is a horrible play statistically but tonight how could you refuse these $$$$'s... URI +12, USC+11, Monmouth +5, Yale Over 123!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am going to try it one more time to get over the .500 mark.
Things I have learned. Never play ranked team vs no rank. Staying away from obvious good teams vs bad teams on stats.
My criteria will now be this. Play an even caliber team but take the home team if their ATS record is better than the other team and they are fav. Lets see how it goes.
This one fits the criteria
Niagara Purple Eagles (6-19 overall, 11-10-1 ATS, 9-13 O/U) vs. Saint Peter’s Peacocks (9-13 overall, 11-7 ATS, 9-9 O/U)
Niagara can't ball. 335th in the nation on offense peters can't ball either but a tad better. 314th in offense
What is a big difference is that st. peters is 86th in the nation in defenses.
So we have st. peters who has a better SU record, better ATS record, a tad better offense and a way better defense and they are playing at home.
Niagara
1-4 ATS in their last five after a straight up loss
1-5 ATS in their last six overall
1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MAAC
Saint Peter’s
5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage below .400
Give me St. Peter -7.5 $$$
See the dayton game? Dayton is ranked, beast mode at home and only laying -2 right now? Are you serious?
So is this a "$$$$" or no? Please clarify before tip. thanks.
I am going to try it one more time to get over the .500 mark.
Things I have learned. Never play ranked team vs no rank. Staying away from obvious good teams vs bad teams on stats.
My criteria will now be this. Play an even caliber team but take the home team if their ATS record is better than the other team and they are fav. Lets see how it goes.
This one fits the criteria
Niagara Purple Eagles (6-19 overall, 11-10-1 ATS, 9-13 O/U) vs. Saint Peter’s Peacocks (9-13 overall, 11-7 ATS, 9-9 O/U)
Niagara can't ball. 335th in the nation on offense peters can't ball either but a tad better. 314th in offense
What is a big difference is that st. peters is 86th in the nation in defenses.
So we have st. peters who has a better SU record, better ATS record, a tad better offense and a way better defense and they are playing at home.
Niagara
1-4 ATS in their last five after a straight up loss
1-5 ATS in their last six overall
1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MAAC
Saint Peter’s
5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage below .400
Give me St. Peter -7.5 $$$
See the dayton game? Dayton is ranked, beast mode at home and only laying -2 right now? Are you serious?
So is this a "$$$$" or no? Please clarify before tip. thanks.
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