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Holmey's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.15.16

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Posted: #26
Good discussions today everyone. Not only a place for $$$$'s, but thoughtful discussion van be just as valuable.......
 
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Posted: #27
Any body got an opinion on the Monmouth game?
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:


BOL, but as I posted in another thread, you need to look at who they play

Wichita State is 18 in KP rankings
New Mexico State 104

How can you be impressed with New Mexico State's nine game win streak versus 

Chicago State (345 KP)
Northern New Mexico (non division 1 school)
Utah Valley (117)
Grand Canyon (284)
UT Rio Grand Valley (347)
CSU Bakersfield (109)
Seattle (288)
Chicago State (345)
Missouri Kansas City (265)
Agree...my POD for tonight is WCH. GlTA

 
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Posted: #29
Guys do you think if Ron Baker is a no go for Shockers then Shockers-15 is no play? Anyone see anything on internet if he is playing or not? Maybe game time decision?
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by LiveWagerKing82:

Any body got an opinion on the Monmouth game?

I found this:

1. Previous History - The Jaspers have not been a good bet when playing top teams, failing to cover in seven of their last 10 against teams with a winning record. They lost by double-digits to Iona and Fairfield recently.

2. Home Cookin' - The Hawks are undefeated (7-0) at home, and they've covered the spread in six of their last eight home games. Manhattan is just 3-8 on the road, failing to cover in eight of it's last 10 road games.

3. X-Factor - The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last five overall (all versus conference rivals).


 
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Posted: #31
Manhattan won the first meeting this season 78-71 (Monmouth's last loss)

Manhattan is 4-1 ATS last five seasons
Manhattan is 5-0 SU last five seasons

Lean Monmouth, but staying away from this one

 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #32
Consider this too with Monmouth, they had to play hard to comeback and beat Rider last time out. Next on deck is the number two team in the MAAC, Iona. The last time these two teams played there was 212 points scored

Could be a tough spot for them
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by jimc0911:

STARS ARE ROLLING RIGHT NOW, PREDS ARE NOT
TYLER SEGUIN MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY SO THAT IS PROBABLY WHY THE PREDS ARE A SMALL FAVORITE AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS. I'VE SEEN DALLAS AT +110 OR EVEN.IF SEGUIN DOES PLAY, I THINK STARS BECOME FAVORITE. I'M JUMPING ON THEM EITHER WAY AND I'M DOING IT AT THIS PRICE +110

$$$$ PLAY FOR MONDAY 2/15/16

DALLAS STARS ML +110


https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/stars-tyler-seguin-likely-to-play-monday/ 
 
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Posted: #34
No money play today. Like Greensboro and Morgan State as small play.

Also on Wichita States side, not sure if I will bet it.
 
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Posted: #35
Quinnipiac +14.5 $$$$      Iona 1-6 ATS on 1 or less days rest this year and when the total is set between 145 and 149.5  they are 0-3 ATS this year and 2-5 last 3. Quinnipiac is 2-0 this year when the total is as mentioned above and 5-1 last 3 years. Iona AVG 76.4 there last 5 and 80.8 at home and Quinnipiac AVG 70.4 their last 5 and 68.9 on the road  GL  
 
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Posted: #36
JEFCOSTELLO.  STARS NOW AT -105


"Bet the farm!" "GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!"
 
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Posted: #37
Be careful on those horizon league games today. Seems like most public likes UWGB and I'm not feeling it. Same with Oakland
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by REDXFF7:

My first $$$$ is NEW MEXICO STATE +14.5 New Mexico has tons of experience and relishing a pretty big winning streak of I believe 9 games. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have Wichita St sputtering and playing not so good ball. Home court is huge here and I believe Wichita will win the game, just not by 14.5 points. Defence plays a huge role in keeping this game close tonight and with New Mexico limiting teams to 55 points or less in the last 4 games think this is an easy cover.


I also like this play for the reasons stated above in addition whichita st. has a tendency of looking past teams when favored by more than 12 points. I have this game capped a Wichita -10 so there is some real value here. I also like the NCState pick at +12 posted here I am also leaning on the over 128 total for alcorn/pine state but with limited available information it may stay as a lean for me or a small .25 unit play versus a full unit! If anybody has a feeling for over 128 alcorn outside of just the numbers please share as there are a few key anomalies with this number that have me searching for more data. Looked at Monmouth game for the record and the number is too big for them to cover recent NJ games they did not look good and I have been told they have not been practicing well.
 
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Posted: #39
$$$$ PLAY $$$$

NC STATE +12 ---  Looking at this game, you definitely have to give the edge to Virginia.  That being said, all you have to do is look at past results to know that Virginia has trouble covering these larger spreads at home (see match-ups vs. boston college, syracuse, clemson, oakland, california and george mason)...Virginia won all of those match-ups SU, but they failed to cover the spread in all of them.  Virginia is a great defensive team, no one is going to argue that.  NC State is a somewhat mediocre team overall on both ends of the floor, no one is going to argue that.  However, NC State has one of the greatest offensive talents in the country, Anthony Barber.  This kid carries the entire team on his back and he does it while playing 38+ minutes a game.  He is a one man show and does a lot of his damage from the free throw line.  I expect Barber to get 12+ free throw attempts tonight and his offensive efforts will keep this game fairly close.  I'm not crazy enough to put a wager on the NC State moneyline, but I will gladly take the free points and go BIG on NC STATE +12 for my $$$$ PLAY!!!
 
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Posted: #40

I have a 4 team 5.5 point Teaser I am throwing 5 units on today.

VIRGINIA -6.5

FAIRFIELD -3.5

NEW MEXICO STATE -22

NMXST VS WHICHITA UNDER 134.5

500 TO WIN 665    GL GENTS

 
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Posted: #41

I also rolled with Fairfield. Good luck to us all!!!

 

Jack Ryan
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by REDXFF7:

My first $$$$ is NEW MEXICO STATE +14.5
New Mexico has tons of experience and relishing a pretty big winning streak of I believe 9 games. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have Wichita St sputtering and playing not so good ball. Home court is huge here and I believe Wichita will win the game, just not by 14.5 points. Defence plays a huge role in keeping this game close tonight and with New Mexico limiting teams to 55 points or less in the last 4 games think this is an easy cover.

KenPom has this as a 2 point game.  Very odd considering how closely his projections usually are to what the line on the game is. 

New Mexico State isn't a good team at all though, they feed on an absolutely awful conference (the WAC merged with the Great West Conference a few years ago.. and that conference was so bad the winner got an auto berth to the CIT) 

Good luck to your play, but something seems very odd about the line. 
 
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Posted: #43
haha, he said teaser.

I'm also on NC State +12. Sorry, I don't do trend or stat write-ups since Vegas uses stats better than any of us can, Just feel this is a spot they cover with a line that seems off.


 
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Posted: #44
1-1 YTD on $$$$ Plays

$$$$ Play for Monday 2/15

7:00 NC State (+11') @ Virginia

Virginia is coming off a very tough loss at Cameron on Saturday. These are two teams that love to slow it down and run their offense. NC State wants to get it in the paint and finish at the rim, while Virginia will be playing their pack line D trying to force shots from the perimeter. NC State also loves to force teams to shoot from the outside. This will be a grind it out game that will be extremely low scoring so I will happily take 11.5 pts, especially when we have a guy in Cat Barber who is averaging just over 30 a game his L7.
 
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Posted: #45
Ron Baker is playing for Wichita State and the line has moved to 16.5 at my book.

 
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Posted: #46
Great posts on the thread today guys. Won't be able yo.catch.up on the tracking until tomorrow evening, but I like the discussion in here today for sure.
 
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Posted: #47
Play of the Day $$$$

Stars -110 vs Predators

If you got this game earlier at a better price good job, but to my knowledge it has dropped to -110, but there is still money to be made here. The Stars started out the season looking like a top 3 team. They faded away but they are back; A little rest did them well. They have won 6 out of their last 7, having impressive wins against tough team like the Capitals. They are simply out skating teams and their offense is deadly when the chemistry is flowing and right now it is. Nashville has not looked like themselves as of late losing 4 of their last 6. On top of that they struggle in front of their home crowd going 1-4 in their last 5. Expect it to be a high scoring game but the Stars will outlast them in this one. 


 
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Posted: #48
Think it's worth it grab the Stars live for +180? I already have em as a PK
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:

No money play today. Like Greensboro and Morgan State as small play.

Also on Wichita States side, not sure if I will bet it.

Weren't money plays but both come in. Ended up putting 1 unit on Wichita State and that looks nice as well early. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

@truthcapper I never would bet against Kansas in a revenge spot at home.  Loved your two previous write ups but man you got some balls on this one!!! Evans will be sorely missed and disagree that the bench can make up for his absence as he is the only one he can drive and create on this team.


It takes balls to handicap! Haha. OkSt looks good so far.
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