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Holmey's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.17.16

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Posted: #26
My play is the Colorado St. @ Utah St. Over 153. Teams are a combined 25-15 on the Over this season, with both teams being Over teams. Both teams have been giving it up defensively over the past three games, with Colorado St. 82.3 ppg allowed and Utah St. 75.3 ppg allowed. The last meeting between these two teams was a 96-92 shootout. Both these teams will score in the 80s tonight. Give me the Over at 153.
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by Tiltingchaser:

My play is the Colorado St. @ Utah St. Over 153. Teams are a combined 25-15 on the Over this season, with both teams being Over teams. Both teams have been giving it up defensively over the past three games, with Colorado St. 82.3 ppg allowed and Utah St. 75.3 ppg allowed. The last meeting between these two teams was a 96-92 shootout. Both these teams will score in the 80s tonight. Give me the Over at 153.

Is this a "Play" or a "$$$$", Tilting?  If you want it tracked, you have to make sure that you include "$$$$" prominently in the post.  Thanks.

 
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Posted: #28
I've decided to get in here and post my first $$$$$ PLAY

My play is: Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers (-109)

The Blackhawks will be without Marian Hossa Tonight
The Rangers will see the return of McDonagh in their lineup.

NYR is 8-0-2 in their last 10 home games (21-5-3 overall at home)
Rangers have won 4 out of their last 5 against CHI

Chicago is a top team but not on the road with a road record of 15-11-3

They recently ended a 3 game losing streak by beating the Leafs which doesn't say much, the Leafs are the last place team in the entire league.

Rangers (-109) is my $$$$ play
 
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Posted: #29
Texas Tech +4.5 $$$$ 

Perfect spot for an upset, plus some solid RLM
 
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Posted: #30

Got it USC! Please below.

My $$$$ play is the Colorado St. @ Utah St. Total Over 153. Teams are a combined 25-15 on the Over this season, with both teams being Over teams. Both teams have been giving it up defensively over the past three games, with Colorado St. 82.3 ppg allowed and Utah St. 75.3 ppg allowed. The last meeting between these two teams was a 96-92 shootout. Both these teams will score in the 80s tonight. Give me the Over at 153.
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by Buctober:

I've decided to get in here and post my first $$$$$ PLAY

My play is: Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers (-109)

The Blackhawks will be without Marian Hossa Tonight
The Rangers will see the return of McDonagh in their lineup.

NYR is 8-0-2 in their last 10 home games (21-5-3 overall at home)
Rangers have won 4 out of their last 5 against CHI

Chicago is a top team but not on the road with a road record of 15-11-3

They recently ended a 3 game losing streak by beating the Leafs which doesn't say much, the Leafs are the last place team in the entire league.

Rangers (-109) is my $$$$ play

 

Obviously I hope you are right! But it is worth noting even with Mac returning, 2 other regular defencemen - Dan Boyle (flu, doubtful) and Marc Staal (wife to have induced labour today, questionable) may be unavailable tonight. Coach V said they would then have to recall a D-man from Hartford, likely Summers. Just something worth following as the day goes on.

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Tiltingchaser:


Got it USC! Please below.

My $$$$ play is the Colorado St. @ Utah St. Total Over 153. Teams are a combined 25-15 on the Over this season, with both teams being Over teams. Both teams have been giving it up defensively over the past three games, with Colorado St. 82.3 ppg allowed and Utah St. 75.3 ppg allowed. The last meeting between these two teams was a 96-92 shootout. Both these teams will score in the 80s tonight. Give me the Over at 153.

Thanks man!  Good luck!

 
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Posted: #33
2-5 $$$$ record

tonight $$$$ play is duke unc over 162.5

Both these teams average over 80 points per game and North Carolina loves to play uptempo and in turn get more possesions.  Duke is #2 in ken pom offensive efficiency and carolina is #5.  Duke is also #108 in defensive efficiency and they do not matchup well with the big bodies of north carolina.  Carolina will dominate the glass in this game and in turn get lots of fast break points. On the flip side carolina has a problem defending penetrating guards and defending the 3 which is dukes strength. Although carolina is not a good 3 point shooting team overall marcus paige and joel berry are both very good 3 point shooters and by hitting their 3s they can keep duke from doubling the big men inside. Carolina 88 Duke 80.
 
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Posted: #34
$$$$ = Oklahoma for each and every reason mentioned by rf dawg above. Exactly my thoughts. My book has OU at -3 -115.

There also has to be a due factor for these top 3-5 teams to win on the road a little more often.
 
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Posted: #35

$$$$ THREAD RESULTS/STANDINGS THRU FEB. 16

Tuesday $$$$ W/L: 6-4
TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 92-85-3

$$$$ OF THE DAY:

STANDINGS:
I can't type out everyone's name any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a minimum number of $$$$'s.

MINIMUM OF 4 $$$$'s MADE

BIG DOG (Leading $$$$-er)
1. wmi799 (5-1)

2. Xdresser (3-0)

3. Gtimebutler (4-1)

4. jimc0911 (5-2)

5. bubbaski27 (6-3)

6. jimmybigmits (3-1-1)

7. jroc1247 (3-1)

8. ncaabb (5-3)

9. TheKrew (2-1-1)

10. FenwayFrank (3-2)

11. USC_Holmey (4-3)
11. Desertcapper (4-3)

13. Appleton40 (2-2)

14. nfl_brosuf (4-4)

15. truthcapper (1-2-1)

16. magiccarpetride (2-3)

17. silversilver (1-3)
17. BarneysDad (1-3)

19. forty9ersfan80 (2-5)

Others at (2-0) --- rf_dawg, Madden2

Thanks guys and good luck today!

 
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Posted: #36

If you haven't made 4 $$$$'s or wonder what your tracked record is, just ask and I will tell you what I have for you.

Thanks and good luck everyone!

 
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Posted: #37
U better clear sum room in ur closet for some new Marithe + Francois Girbaud jeans cuz Dreamsicle aka Gal$harpton is bout to give u that $$$$ PLAY that will finance ur luxury denim obsession!!.. 

Without farther ado its that gurl Gal$harpton slicin thru tha bugle boy jeans wearin haters 2 bring u another $$$$ PLAY!!

Page ur bookie on his beeper right now.. When he call u back tell him u want 2 bet ur bankroll on tha DePaul Blue Demons -2!!  If u want 2 watch sum competitive bball 2night then u better stay tha hells away from this game..  Letting ur little kids watch this game would be more messed up then takin them 2 see Deadpool.. thats how messed up this game gonna be.. These teams cant shoot and they cant defend..  But in this battle of tha 2 worst programs in tha big east; depaul has tha edge ALL DAY LONG and they will dominate this game from start 2 finish.. Billy 'tha kid' Garrett is gonna have a MVP type game against tha terrible st johns defense and Tommy 'tha terminator' Hamilton is gonna show tha clowns at st johns how 2 play center like a man.. St Johns think hiring sum chump like Chris Mullin is goin 2 help this squad??  LOL Mullin should not b in tha hall of fame and he shouldnt even be coaching a pee wee team.. All tha saints in tha world cant save mullin and his no talent team 2night!! Put ur $$$$ PLAY on DePaul and say thanks to Dreamsicle aka Gal$harpton at tha end of tha night!!  
 
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Posted: #38
Holy crap.  Is TRAIN69 actually JTG from CBS?
 
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Posted: #39
4-4 $$$

What I've learned.  I will stay away from all reverse line movements from now on.  No point in gambling on trap lines unless you want to be on the right side of the fix by taking the dog.



Auburn Tigers (9-15 SU, 9-14 ATS, 9-13-1 O/U) at Arkansas Razorbacks (12-13 SU, 12-9 ATS, 9-12 O/U)

Poor auburn.  Their leading scorer got suspended for the whole season and homeboy is going to enter the nba draft this year.  Auburn have not won anyone SU worth mentioning except for that fruity win over Kentucky wildcats, I give them credit for that. They have lost 7 Straight up games and only covered 1x against the georgia bulldogs laying 11 points.  They lost that game by 10.

Auburn have lost 7 straight games by double digits. 

Arkansas on the other hand is coming from a 2 games losing streak against tougher opponents like miss and miss st.  Now they can get a breather playing against a poor pisser team.  This is their first game back at home in a 3 home game stretch for them so they will go out and ball hard. 

What I do notice is when arkansas wins, they put up points in the 80s to 90's.  They are also 10th in the sec with 3 balls percentages at 40.7 %.  They are looking to beat their own school record on that.  Ark got 3 kids who averages 16 points per game. 

Look for ark to get a lot of second looks on the offense board as their center kingsley ranked 4th in the sec with 9 rebounds per game plus homeboy is 2nd in the conference with double doubles. 

No RLM  here and line is moving with a ton of money on arkansas right now.  opened at -13.5.  Now at -15.5  Lots of points but might worth a shot. 

The Auburn Tigers are:

  • 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall
  • 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the SEC

The Arkansas Razorbacks are:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
  • 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with losing road records
  • 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams

Give me Ark -15.5 for $$$$

My other game is illinois state -6
The Indiana State Sycamores are:
  • 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

The Illinois State Redbirds are:

  • 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Missouri Valley.
  • 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.




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Posted: #40
Great to be back...My ATT took a poop last Sat morning and they didn't get around to fixing it until this afternoon!! I'm jumping on the Redbird Express. Sycamores look pretty sorry on the road and Illini State has been covering pretty well as of late....


Jack Ryan
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Holy crap.  Is TRAIN69 actually JTG from CBS?

Seriously? He was the greatest fade material of all time
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Roadrunner069:


Seriously? He was the greatest fade material of all time

A LOT of similarities......
 
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Posted: #43
Playing 733 Nebraska Under 148
704 Iowa Under 141
Tailing 764 USC Over 151.....BOL Tonight
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

4-4 $$$

What I've learned.  I will stay away from all reverse line movements from now on.  No point in gambling on trap lines unless you want to be on the right side of the fix by taking the dog.



Auburn Tigers (9-15 SU, 9-14 ATS, 9-13-1 O/U) at Arkansas Razorbacks (12-13 SU, 12-9 ATS, 9-12 O/U)

Poor auburn.  Their leading scorer got suspended for the whole season and homeboy is going to enter the nba draft this year.  Auburn have not won anyone SU worth mentioning except for that fruity win over Kentucky wildcats, I give them credit for that. They have lost 7 Straight up games and only covered 1x against the georgia bulldogs laying 11 points.  They lost that game by 10.

Auburn have lost 7 straight games by double digits. 

Arkansas on the other hand is coming from a 2 games losing streak against tougher opponents like miss and miss st.  Now they can get a breather playing against a poor pisser team.  This is their first game back at home in a 3 home game stretch for them so they will go out and ball hard. 

What I do notice is when arkansas wins, they put up points in the 80s to 90's.  They are also 10th in the sec with 3 balls percentages at 40.7 %.  They are looking to beat their own school record on that.  Ark got 3 kids who averages 16 points per game. 

Look for ark to get a lot of second looks on the offense board as their center kingsley ranked 4th in the sec with 9 rebounds per game plus homeboy is 2nd in the conference with double doubles. 

No RLM  here and line is moving with a ton of money on arkansas right now.  opened at -13.5.  Now at -15.5  Lots of points but might worth a shot. 

The Auburn Tigers are:

  • 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall
  • 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the SEC

The Arkansas Razorbacks are:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
  • 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with losing road records
  • 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams

Give me Ark -15.5 for $$$$

My other game is illinois state -6
The Indiana State Sycamores are:
  • 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

The Illinois State Redbirds are:

  • 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Missouri Valley.
  • 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.





Excellent write up! I think from the all the plays for today's thread, this has got to be the strongest..... I'll be riding with you on this one. BOL sir 


 
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Posted: #45
Anyone seen anything definitive on Colorado's Josh Scott?
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by LiveWagerKing82:


Excellent write up! I think from the all the plays for today's thread, this has got to be the strongest..... I'll be riding with you on this one. BOL sir 




I might lose but losing to me is a learning experiences.  So far, these are my criteria and filters. 

- No playing ranked team against no rank.  The upset factor
- No playing away teams.  Home crowd is the 6th man factor
- No playing if their ATS record is poorer than opponent
- No playing if they have played before this year.  The revenge factor
- No Reverse Line Movement factor

I might even add a filter of no playing if spread is more than 10 points.  The overtime can't cover factor. 

If the other team can beat these nazi filters of mine, they were the better team and deserve the win.  I'll take the lost like a man. 





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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by DAB12AC:

Holmey,

I know you're a PAC-12 guy: do you have any thoughts about ASU/U of A tonight?  

My best bet for this game is that Bobby Hurley is going to get T'ed up at some point 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:


My best bet for this game is that Bobby Hurley is going to get T'ed up at some point 

This is actually a pretty good bet.  I wonder if its available as a prop somewhere......

 
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Posted: #49
$$$$ Oklahoma -3 $$$$

I know I know, Oklahoma has not been great against the spread lately, and I also know that the Texas Tech Raiders have been a much improved team with Tubby Smith at the helm than what we have seen at the beginning of the year.  Also yes, we are losing some value betting on a team "ranked #3" in the polls (I recommend everyone goes and reads JFens post about top 25 rankings).  I look at it like this though, Oklahoma knows they haven't been playing great basketball.  They are a team fighting for a top seed in March and right now they might be a little closer to the two line than the one line. I think there is no question they are the better team, they just need to come out and play like it from the start, and matchup wise, Texas Tech is the perfect team to do it against.  OU is a brutal matchup for Tubby's ball line defense.  Why? They don't turn the ball over with Cousins, Woodard, and Hield, and they can shoot the ball like no one else in the nation.  If the threes are falling tonight, this could turn into a runaway.  I think Texas Tech keeps it within single digits, but the final selling point for me is that late in the game, if it is right around 3 points, TTU will be fouling, and I have a lot of confidence in Oklahoma knocking down the free throws to push us outside of our number.  Roll with Buddy and the Sooners tonight.

$$$$ Oklahoma -3 $$$$ 
 
 
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Posted: #50
FWIW (1-1) on the year with $$$$
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