How to Properly Hedge: I have $500 on Oregon to win $10K

Question

Like the title of the thread says, I put $500 on Oregon way back in early Jan to pay out $10K when Dillon Brooks was banged up.

Now that they're in the Final 4, I'm trying to figure out the best way to hedge my futures bet and lock in at least some guaranteed money.

I'm thinking of doing $1K on UNC ML and then doing another $1-2K on UNC live hopefully at even or close to plus odds whenever the Heels are down 3-5 at any point.

I'm still very confident in Oregon beating UNC but I don't want to be stupid. How should I properly hedge this?

DukeTrinity11 · Answer

Like the title of the thread says, I put $500 on Oregon way back in early Jan to pay out $10K when Dillon Brooks was banged up.

Now that they're in the Final 4, I'm trying to figure out the best way to hedge my futures bet and lock in at least some guaranteed money.

I'm thinking of doing $1K on UNC ML and then doing another $1-2K on UNC live hopefully at even or close to plus odds whenever the Heels are down 3-5 at any point.

I'm still very confident in Oregon beating UNC but I don't want to be stupid. How should I properly hedge this?

davemsh · Answer

You got shiity odds.  20-1 back in January?

BIGfnPOO · Answer

no hedge bro,,u didnt mind losing 500 when u bet it! just get it son

herbals · Answer

so you bet 500 to win 10k. now you want to throw 1k@-200 to either get back your original 500 for 0 profit or turn your 500 bet into a 3500 bet that will end up either +2000, -500 original, +500ml, +2k ingame or you lose 3k and have to bet more on the title game to ensure you break even because you now have 3500 to win 10k so your 20-1 bet would now be more like 3-1 brilliant!!!

funguyy · Answer

My 2 cents. Take Zags and UNC to win the championship for equal amount. Take USC for 1/2 of (Zags and UNC wager) to win the championship. I think the ML for UNC vs Oregon is too expensive. The Zags ML would also be expensive if Oregon gets in the finals. If Oregon and USC gets to the finals, USC would prolly be a slight underdog so you can hedge more on the USC ML at that time if you choose to.

I would be interested to know how you hedged it if you did anything.

charlielo55 · Answer

Put $500on the UNC moneyline, they&#x27;re going to win. If they lose (which they won&#x27;t), put $1000 on the Zags after they destroy USC.....as a matter of fact, put a whole lot more on Zags, and at least win some money either way. Zags will crush Oregon.

cropduster · Answer

Problem with a UNC hedge is that if it loses, you're forced to hedge on the championship at least double of what you hedged on the UNC game. And if you bet both Gonzaga and UNC futures at plus money, well, you know there can only be one winner so 2 of your 3 bets will lose. And if South Carolina some how gets into the championship, you would lose all hedge money that you've previously played on UNC and Gonzaga.

However you do it, I wouldn't get into that live betting trying to chase your hedge money. You could lose the hedge money and the live money.

I would be thinking whatever money I hedge, I'm happy with deducting it off of my winnings. I see UNC at -205 right now. So, if you want to protect the bulk of your investment, bet $1000 on UNC Or if you want to guarantee a profit bet $2000 on UNC moneyline. Then in the championship , You'd have to bet another $2000 on Oregon's opponent to guarantee a profit. If you lose both hedges, you still walk out up $6000. So, you won't be as happy when Oregon wins, but you'll soften the blow quite a bit if they lose.

And it really depents on if you think your local or book will pay you the 10 grand. If there is any doubt, DON'T hedge.

undermysac · Answer

This post just went over everyone&#x27;s head

thorpe · Answer

Field vs Oregon is -620.  You have some value in your future but not a ton.I&#x27;m not going to do the math, but if you want to cash out your bet now you&#x27;d win around 2.5K

DukeTrinity11 · Answer

Sorry it was Feb 2nd when I put in the future bet.

nosey22 · Answer

I have 500$ to win 7500$ on Oregon placed the day before CB got injured (!) I&#x27;m just letting it ride. I really like their chances &#x2B; everybody and there mother is on UNC. Hopefully Oregon can take a halftime lead and then you have the option of hedging even or better.

Lovethegame123 · Answer

I have 20 on them at 26 to 1 as tourney started

hradekbr · Answer

Put down the pipe kid

bk1374 · Answer

I wouldn&#x27;t hedge it.  Not now at least.  Eats your profits doing it now when you have to win twice.5 dimes has the Field vs. Oregon at -600.  So throw $5000 on that if you really want to get out now.  If Ducks win it all you win $5000.  If Ducks lose Saturday or Monday, you win $833.33, less your original wager of $50.In your own words "I&#x27;m still very confident in Oregon beating UNC but I don&#x27;t want to be stupid. How should I properly hedge this?"So let it ride and hope they win, then Monday you can guarantee yourself some profit if you so choose.

bk1374 · Answer

Nevermind forget that.    You have $500 on them, not $50.Forget my post and let it ride!!

jwarner1313 · Answer

I&#x27;ve got a similar bet on Oregon to win about 6K but I&#x27;m going to ride it out at least against UNC.  I think they will the game.   My dream is for an Oregon - South Carolina  matchup where Oregon would be a 2-3 pt favorite.  I&#x27;d take South Carolina in that situation and hope to win both.   Good luck to you!

bushman9 · Answer

Not only should you not hedge out, I&#x27;d recommend doubling or tripling down (well just kidding about the last part). Even if they get blown out next game, both UNC and Zaga are two of the softest #1 seeds in recent memory. While Oregon is far from unblemished, at least you will go down with a team with a hell of a lot of scrap, two stone cold clutch trigger men in Dorsey and Brooks, and the best coach left in the tournament. I too have a bet on Oregon but only at 18-1 and to hell if I&#x27;m going to hedge now. Good luck to us.

SharpStatsGuy · Answer

If you truly think that UNC or Oregon is going to win then just do the following. Odds are from 5dimes

Bet another $400 on Oregon at +490 (pays $1960)

Bet $2500 on UNC at +140 (pays $3700)

Bet $2000 on Gonzaga at +170 (pays $3400)

If Oregon wins your total profit is $7460

If UNC wins your total profit is $800

If Gonzaga wins you are exactly even

If South Carolina wins you're f*cked (They are not winning it)

3 of the 4 scenarios leave you either even or profitable. If Gonzaga ends up playing Oregon in the final you could bet another $1400 or so on Zags MoneyLine. Likely ML would be Zags -140. That would guarantee you at least $1000 profit or still $6000 if Oregon wins.

I realize that you're only in it for $500 now but smart gamblers should always hedge if it will guarantee profit. This sh*t is way too unpredictable and with Oregon having the 3rd best odds to win it out of 4, the odds are not in your favor. This will likely end up being a $500 loss if you don't hedge. Just my 2 cents. GL

SharpStatsGuy · Answer

UNC is &#x2B;148, my mistake

DukeTrinity11 · Answer

You&#x27;re right but you haven&#x27;t considered the Live In Game Hedge option.5Dimes allows me to in-game bet during any commercial time out so I might wait till any point where UNC is down 4-6 and then hammer the UNC ML for -150 or possibly plus odds so I can lock in some guaranteed profit while I cheer on the Ducks to finish the Heels off.Dorsey and Brooks are stone cold assassins while UNC is a soft team with Berry hobbled.

nfl_brosuf · Answer

Since you only have 2 legs left. You take 10500 payout n take half. Then you take half of that number. So 5250 divided by 2 is 2625.

Bet 2625 on unc pk. If ore loses u profit 2625 - 500 initial wager. If ore wins it gets interesting.

10500-2625 = x. Im lazy with my math so bare with me. Now take x divided by 2 =y. Bet y on the other team on the ml or pk.

Guaranteed to profit somewhere along there lol

BIGfnPOO · Answer

to early to hedge proper son. win this next game than you can hedge.  and if u lissen to anyone..DO NOT let it be from the guy telling u to leave yr ahole open to Souf carolina

gfinger · Answer

Agreed.

tmurda666 · Answer

Parlay Oregon moneyline &amp; South Carolina moneyline...

SharpStatsGuy · Answer

Personally I think it would be a complete waste of money to put any money on South Carolina. People need to move on from the "Gonzaga can&#x27;t win on the big stage" mentality. This is a different year and different team. Mark Few just won coach of the year and those kids are as focused as anyone to win it all. South Carolina has no answer to deal with the size of Karnowski and double teaming him will only open up wide open 3 point shots for a group of guards that shot close to 40% from 3 point range. Gonzaga has advantages in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding, bench scoring, free throw percentage and turnovers among others. My personal simulation program has this as a double digit victory for the Zags and I don&#x27;t see any scenario where the Zags ML doesn&#x27;t get it done here. Worst case scenario you can hedge SC as a dog in the National Championship game but I&#x27;d be shocked if it would ever come to that. Why throw away money when you can focus on the 3 teams that actually have a shot to win it?

How to Properly Hedge: I have $500 on Oregon to win $10K

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