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January Hoops

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Posted: #1001
Well put FF...
 
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Posted: #1002
I agree ff... very big card. I'm having trouble getting through them all for my own selections. Don't want to rush through them and miss something and make a losing selection because of it.
 
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Posted: #1003
1/14 Results: Comment Monday on weekend results. Probably won't be around much today. 

Sides: 44-29, +25.30
Totals: 38-18, +25.10
DNP: 59-47


1/15 Notes: No time for long analysis with a card that has exactly 100 games on it. The one spot I did have circled going into today is Hawaii and it stems from a total I hit the other night. Louisiana Tech has now lost five straight games against similar competition due to a few things. One, they play zero defense. They lost their best defender to the draft in Rolle. They haven't had Gibson (who was all WAC defense and expected to carry this defense this year) all of January. The team's lone offensive threats are Brown and Ashaola. The loss of Redding early in the year, along with Gibson really hurts their depth as they don't really have any reliable options coming off the bench. They play a defense that doesn't include taking many risks, they almost want you to get into the lane and force up a bad shot. Without their top two defenders, it's not working. This benefits Hawaii and their offense which is comprised of a few shooters and a few slashers who like to get in the paint and draw fouls. The Hawaii defense has improved drastically by bringing in USC assistant Gib Arnold, and I expect that to be one of the primary reasons they are able to come out of here with a win. With a young team, you will be concerned going on the road for a second roady but this matchup really comes down to strength versus weakness. Regardless of where the game is played, Hawaii should play well against this type of sit back/no risk defense. Louisiana Tech's last three games have come against similar makeups in defense to Hawaii, and they've looked pitiful. Louisiana Tech also has Utah State on deck. Hawaii is at the portion of their schedule where with a win here, they could string a few victories together with lessers coming in at home. Am i worried backing a team that has lost fifteen straight road games? Absolutely, but they have too many options on offense going against this defense. I like Marquette's ability to beat the press, but it could be a bad thing getting them out of their normal dribble drive half court sets. Arkansas is a PK at home against Tennessee and Alabama? Apparently, I'm overvaluing Tennessee a tad bit too much, or Arkansas' loss at LSU has added value. I like Delaware, but hate the tail end of a three game roady. Most entertaining game of the day? Baylor/Iowa State. Two hunker down in your face defenses. I like San Diego State, not betting road chalk at New Mexico. Pretty big sandwich game for Drexel. Beat Old Dominion, play a team at 0-5 in the conference before going to George Mason. Therefore, I like Bill & Mary, but I don't like their matchups. Would lean to WKU if they could learn how to play defense. I like UAB quite a bit. They've had a week to prepare for Tulsa, while Tulsa travelled cross country mid-week and lost to Arizona State. Tulsa plays a similar style of defense to Louisiana Tech mentioned above, and now UAB gets a week to prep for that. It would not surprise me to see a 155-160 total posted for UNT/Troy. Maybe a 164-165? Their lined totals have been listed that high in the past and Troy's get out and run is bordering on "too-fast". Their offense is not great, but either they or their opponent usually gets up 60 shots. I mentioned the basis for the UNT play the other day going over b/c of their offense and not being afraid to run. I wouldn't imagine them not to run here either. I like Washington State's matchups and ability to play different styles. Yes, they're coming off an overtime loss and going for a second straight roady, but Stanford's coming off a Washington win. 8-0 home a bit scary, but need to take chances with some matchup advantages and a better offense. Tough to play a heltic-skelter not sure what Washington is going to do and then playing a team that's consistent in it's approach. Second most entertaining game of the day vote? Pacific/Long Beach State. Hoping for a battle. Team that holds the most value on the card is Appalachian State catching 5. Throw out recent results of games played and this line is flip-flopped. And I like Wofford yet again. Last spot they'll be an underdog until the rematch with Charleston in early February probably.

Bets
Hawaii +2.5 (4 Units)
UAB PK (2 Units)
UC Irvine +3.5 (2 Units)
Evansville/Illinois State Over 122.5 (2 Units)
Washington State +1.5 (1 Unit)
UAB/Tulsa Under 138.5 (1 Unit)

DNP: Temple PK, Appy State +5, Wofford +3.5, Southern Miss -2, Hawaii/Louisiana Tech Over 133, North Texas/Troy Over 154.5

GL
 
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Posted: #1004
 
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Posted: #1005
As always, great job with your plays.  Any thoughts on K-State -12 vs. Tech.  This is a spot where I think K-State is going to get well for a game.  They have been a huge disappointment, but they still have a lot of talent and should be able to beat Tech by 20+ points in this one.
 
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Posted: #1006
 Thanks and as always BOL
 
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Posted: #1007
Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:



What are you, the internet stalker?


tim - fuck off pal. i saw that he posted his contest picks. you don't check out the top cappers picks?


 
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Posted: #1008
Quote Originally Posted by zz19191919:

hey Neil, what is your opinion on these games.... New Mexico v Sd St, W&M v Drex and FSU v NCST

i'm looking at the letdown angle for a few of those and hoping that NM crowd is a factor

Tough to play in the Pit for San Diego State, but this isn't the same New Mexico team that we've seen in year's past. Won't see me against SDSTU all year. I leaned William & Mary, just didn't like the matchups. Also would have pointed the NCST direction. 
 
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Posted: #1009
Quote Originally Posted by aggieaccountant:

As always, great job with your plays.  Any thoughts on K-State -12 vs. Tech.  This is a spot where I think K-State is going to get well for a game.  They have been a huge disappointment, but they still have a lot of talent and should be able to beat Tech by 20+ points in this one.

One would think this would be a good spot for KST to get up and have a good showing, and Tech is far from a superior team, but the last time KST actually beat a team with similarity to Tech was over a month ago. And, they have Missouri on deck. Offense has been awful outside of Pullen forcing shots. Should be close.

Texas Tech's in a rough spot too. Seniors get called out by Coach Knight and follow it up with a game they looked like they didn't care. Scary.
 
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Posted: #1010
 
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Posted: #1011
Quote Originally Posted by zz19191919:



tim - fuck off pal. i saw that he posted his contest picks. you don't check out the top cappers picks?




Another internet tough talk guy.

 No, I don't follow those. Too many people make arbitrary picks without any definitive reason why. Posting Louisville -6 without any discussion isn't whom I'll follow. 
 
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Posted: #1012
 
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Posted: #1013
hey neil quick question a game no has talked about is mason ve georgia st line drooped a point already at 13.5 isnt that alot of points for mason to cover in this series plus they got drexel on deck? Thanks buddy have a great day
 
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Posted: #1014
I'm seeing 133.5 uab total
 
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Posted: #1015
Quote Originally Posted by jameswashington:

hey neil quick question a game no has talked about is mason ve georgia st line drooped a point already at 13.5 isnt that alot of points for mason to cover in this series plus they got drexel on deck? Thanks buddy have a great day

Georgia State in a rough spot. Travel plans kept them grounded an extra day before a makeup game last time out, now have to travel again. They got some talent, but not the type of roster to overcome little things like this.
 
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Posted: #1016
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Georgia State in a rough spot. Travel plans kept them grounded an extra day before a makeup game last time out, now have to travel again. They got some talent, but not the type of roster to overcome little things like this.
yea i did see there travel i thought maybe that was why the line was so high
 
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Posted: #1017
 Nropp.BOL
 
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Posted: #1018
 
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Posted: #1019

Thanx Nropp

 
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Posted: #1020

Thanks for thorough write up...much appreciated.

GL

 

 
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Posted: #1021
your hard work is much appreciated
 
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Posted: #1022
Great information as usual nropp! BOL 2day buddy!
 
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Posted: #1023
Let's Roll O/U on UAB had dropped to 133DNP unless u think different..Everything else locked in..Thanks Neil..Let me know on UAB...??
 
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Posted: #1024

Are you concerned about UC Irvines injuries Nropp?

 
 
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Let's Roll O/U on UAB had dropped to 133DNP unless u think different..Everything else locked in..Thanks Neil..Let me know on UAB...??
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