Solid night last night as I went 5-1-1 overall
and 3-0-1 in my top plays. Lets keep it rolling today. I wanted to get
this first play out before line moves. I will be back later with more.
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ Virginia Over 107.5:
Very low OU line here, even for a Virginia game as their lowest OU line
has been 113.5 so far. Granted the Cavs play a slow down brand of ball
and they are a solid defensive team, but I feel the Tigers can speed up
the game enough for this one to go Over. Virginia's home games have
averaged just 113.7 ppg and thanks mainly to a defense that has allowed
just 47.8 ppg at home. Clemson, though, I feel can score on them. The
Tigers have been solid offensively in the ACC as they have put up 68.3
ppg in those games, including 69.3 ppg in their last 3. At the other end
of the floor they have allowed just 59.7 ppg overall, but on the road
they have allowed 63 ppg, while in their last 5 they have allowed 66
ppg, so they can be scored on and should allow a Virginia squad that has
scored just 58.7 ppg in ACC play to hit at least 60+ on them here.
Another reason to expect they will be good for 60+ is the fact that they
score 65.9 ppg at home. The Cavs slow the game down and play that
boring basketball, but I still feel their is enough offense in this game
to have this one hit 115 points. Even if the Cavs should somehow hold
the Tigers to 49 points, i still expect no less than 60 form Virginia
and that still gets us the over.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Solid night last night as I went 5-1-1 overall
and 3-0-1 in my top plays. Lets keep it rolling today. I wanted to get
this first play out before line moves. I will be back later with more.
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ Virginia Over 107.5:
Very low OU line here, even for a Virginia game as their lowest OU line
has been 113.5 so far. Granted the Cavs play a slow down brand of ball
and they are a solid defensive team, but I feel the Tigers can speed up
the game enough for this one to go Over. Virginia's home games have
averaged just 113.7 ppg and thanks mainly to a defense that has allowed
just 47.8 ppg at home. Clemson, though, I feel can score on them. The
Tigers have been solid offensively in the ACC as they have put up 68.3
ppg in those games, including 69.3 ppg in their last 3. At the other end
of the floor they have allowed just 59.7 ppg overall, but on the road
they have allowed 63 ppg, while in their last 5 they have allowed 66
ppg, so they can be scored on and should allow a Virginia squad that has
scored just 58.7 ppg in ACC play to hit at least 60+ on them here.
Another reason to expect they will be good for 60+ is the fact that they
score 65.9 ppg at home. The Cavs slow the game down and play that
boring basketball, but I still feel their is enough offense in this game
to have this one hit 115 points. Even if the Cavs should somehow hold
the Tigers to 49 points, i still expect no less than 60 form Virginia
and that still gets us the over.
Does Jennings being suspended for Clemson, change the play or do you still like the Over? Jennings is averaging almost 9 ppg and 5.4 rebounds per game.
0
Does Jennings being suspended for Clemson, change the play or do you still like the Over? Jennings is averaging almost 9 ppg and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Does Jennings being suspended for Clemson, change the play or do you still like the Over? Jennings is averaging almost 9 ppg and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Won't make a difference SC....take the over
0
Quote Originally Posted by sc_capper74:
Does Jennings being suspended for Clemson, change the play or do you still like the Over? Jennings is averaging almost 9 ppg and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Air Force/ New Mexico over 120: The
Falcons do not run at all as they play that very slow tempo kinda of
game, but if their is one team in the MWC that I feel can speed them up
some it is the Lobos. New Mexico's scoring attack has been potent this
year, ranking second in the Mountain West with 74.8 ppg, while putting
up 72.2 ppg in MWC play, plus let's also note that NM has averaged 71.1
ppg in their last 8 meetings with the Falcons. Air Force has been
playing the slow down game for years, yet this series has hit 120+
points in 6 of the last 7 meetings, with those 7 games averaging 131.4
ppg. New Mexico has been solid on defense this year as they have allowed
just 60.4 ppg overall, but in the MWC that number has gone up a bit as
they have allowed 64.6 ppg in those games. Air force is not known as a
good offensive team but they have put up 65.9 ppg on 47.6% shooting at
home on the year and they SHOULD be able to hit at least 60 in this one.
Even if they are held to about 55 points I just don't see how NM isn't
able to score at least 67 points in this one. While the Falcons'
conference games have averaged just 118.8 ppg, the Lobs's MWC games have
put up 136.8 ppg and they should get the game at their pace which would
easily give us the Over here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play
Over in all games where the total is 129.5 or less if the home team
allowed 65 points or less 4 straight games vs an opponent off 2 straight
wins by 15 points or more. This play is 34-10 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Kent State -5.5 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN: The
Chippewas are not really playing good ball right now, as they have lost
5 in a row, which has included DD home losses to Akron (10) and Ball
State (21). Playing against Kent State won't make it easier for them
tonight as they have lost the last 10 in the series to them, with 8 of
those losses coming by more than 5 points. KSU has struggles at times on
the road, but they still come in winners in 4 of their last 6, with
their last 2 games being blowout wins over Toledo and Nothern Illinois. I
would really consider Toledo to be a better team than CM, yet the line
is the same 5.5 as that one was and KSU beat the Rockets on the road by
16 in that one. Doesn't make sense. The Golden Flashes have had
struggles on defense of late as they have allowed 75 ppg in their last 5
games, but CM just doesn't have enough firepower to take advantage, as
they come in averaging just 60.2 ppg in their last 5 games. At the other
end we have a CM squad that has allowed 71.2 ppg in their last 5
overall and 72 ppg at home on the year and that is not good news for
them as KSU comes in averaging 79.8 ppg on 51.4% shooting in their last 5
games. Kent State's ability on offense will be the key in this
one as Central Michigan does not have the firepower to stay in a game
with the Golden Flashes, nor the defense to keep the score within a
manageable range. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---Play against home
dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they are an average 3PT shooting team
(32-36.5%) after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse vs a
good 3PT defense (<=32%). This play is 32-9 since 1997.
0
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Air Force/ New Mexico over 120: The
Falcons do not run at all as they play that very slow tempo kinda of
game, but if their is one team in the MWC that I feel can speed them up
some it is the Lobos. New Mexico's scoring attack has been potent this
year, ranking second in the Mountain West with 74.8 ppg, while putting
up 72.2 ppg in MWC play, plus let's also note that NM has averaged 71.1
ppg in their last 8 meetings with the Falcons. Air Force has been
playing the slow down game for years, yet this series has hit 120+
points in 6 of the last 7 meetings, with those 7 games averaging 131.4
ppg. New Mexico has been solid on defense this year as they have allowed
just 60.4 ppg overall, but in the MWC that number has gone up a bit as
they have allowed 64.6 ppg in those games. Air force is not known as a
good offensive team but they have put up 65.9 ppg on 47.6% shooting at
home on the year and they SHOULD be able to hit at least 60 in this one.
Even if they are held to about 55 points I just don't see how NM isn't
able to score at least 67 points in this one. While the Falcons'
conference games have averaged just 118.8 ppg, the Lobs's MWC games have
put up 136.8 ppg and they should get the game at their pace which would
easily give us the Over here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play
Over in all games where the total is 129.5 or less if the home team
allowed 65 points or less 4 straight games vs an opponent off 2 straight
wins by 15 points or more. This play is 34-10 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Kent State -5.5 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN: The
Chippewas are not really playing good ball right now, as they have lost
5 in a row, which has included DD home losses to Akron (10) and Ball
State (21). Playing against Kent State won't make it easier for them
tonight as they have lost the last 10 in the series to them, with 8 of
those losses coming by more than 5 points. KSU has struggles at times on
the road, but they still come in winners in 4 of their last 6, with
their last 2 games being blowout wins over Toledo and Nothern Illinois. I
would really consider Toledo to be a better team than CM, yet the line
is the same 5.5 as that one was and KSU beat the Rockets on the road by
16 in that one. Doesn't make sense. The Golden Flashes have had
struggles on defense of late as they have allowed 75 ppg in their last 5
games, but CM just doesn't have enough firepower to take advantage, as
they come in averaging just 60.2 ppg in their last 5 games. At the other
end we have a CM squad that has allowed 71.2 ppg in their last 5
overall and 72 ppg at home on the year and that is not good news for
them as KSU comes in averaging 79.8 ppg on 51.4% shooting in their last 5
games. Kent State's ability on offense will be the key in this
one as Central Michigan does not have the firepower to stay in a game
with the Golden Flashes, nor the defense to keep the score within a
manageable range. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---Play against home
dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they are an average 3PT shooting team
(32-36.5%) after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse vs a
good 3PT defense (<=32%). This play is 32-9 since 1997.
Michigan State -1.5 over ILLINOIS: Illinois
has had a good year this year and and they are 11-1 at home But other
than 3 good games i don't think this team has been all that impressive.
They beat Gonzaga OSU and lost by 4 to Missouri, but other than that
they haven't shown me anything. Losing at PSU, beating Nebraska by just 5
at home, beating Cornell by 4, st Bonaventure at home by just 5 and
getting blown out by Purdue and UNLV does not have me thinking that this
team is really all that good.In fact after their 10-0 start the illini
have gone just 5-6 since. Mixcxhigan State started the year at 0-2 but
have since gone 17-2, including 6-2 in the Big Whatever-It-Is-Now. The
Spartans have been very hot offensively as they have averaged 75.8 ppg
on 54.2% shooting in their last 5 games. The Illini mare playing no
where near that well at the offensive end right now as they have
averaged just 65.4 ppg once Big 10 play has started. The Illini have
played good defense this year, especially at home where they have
allowed just 59.8 ppg, but the one thing they don't do well at that end
is defend the 3-ball and the Spartans shoot the 3-ball very well as they
have hit 46.7% of their threes in their last 5 games (36.9% overall),
while Illinois have allowed teams to hit 36% of their threes on the
year. The Spartans are the better team at both ends of the floor, plus
they also get the board advantage and I expect them to win this one
rather easily.
5 POINT TEASER--- Kentucky -11.5 & North Carolina -11
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Wake Forest Under 152.5: Play
Under in all games where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points and
the road off a home win by 10 points or more and playing their 2nd game
in 3 days. This play is 51-22 since 1997. Wake has averaged just 58.8
ppg in their last 8 games and I don't see them putting up more than that
here. even if the should hit 60 points that would mean Carolina would
have to put up 93 points and I don't see that either as the Heels have
averaged just 75.5 ppg on the road. This game should be played in the
mid 140's.
Oklahoma State/ Texas Tech Over 128: TEXAS
TECH is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a
losing record after 15 or more games since 1997. I feel TT can get
enough points in this one for the game to go over vs an OSU team that
has allowed 66 ppg overall and 78 ppg in their last 5. Texas Tech has
allowed 667.8 ppg and that should provide some scoring for this average
OSU offense (66.2 ppg in their last 5). I expect about 135 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Vanderbilt -2.5 over ARKANSAS: VANDERBILT
is 11-3 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing
<=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while ARKANSAS is 2-11
ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
0
Michigan State -1.5 over ILLINOIS: Illinois
has had a good year this year and and they are 11-1 at home But other
than 3 good games i don't think this team has been all that impressive.
They beat Gonzaga OSU and lost by 4 to Missouri, but other than that
they haven't shown me anything. Losing at PSU, beating Nebraska by just 5
at home, beating Cornell by 4, st Bonaventure at home by just 5 and
getting blown out by Purdue and UNLV does not have me thinking that this
team is really all that good.In fact after their 10-0 start the illini
have gone just 5-6 since. Mixcxhigan State started the year at 0-2 but
have since gone 17-2, including 6-2 in the Big Whatever-It-Is-Now. The
Spartans have been very hot offensively as they have averaged 75.8 ppg
on 54.2% shooting in their last 5 games. The Illini mare playing no
where near that well at the offensive end right now as they have
averaged just 65.4 ppg once Big 10 play has started. The Illini have
played good defense this year, especially at home where they have
allowed just 59.8 ppg, but the one thing they don't do well at that end
is defend the 3-ball and the Spartans shoot the 3-ball very well as they
have hit 46.7% of their threes in their last 5 games (36.9% overall),
while Illinois have allowed teams to hit 36% of their threes on the
year. The Spartans are the better team at both ends of the floor, plus
they also get the board advantage and I expect them to win this one
rather easily.
5 POINT TEASER--- Kentucky -11.5 & North Carolina -11
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Wake Forest Under 152.5: Play
Under in all games where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points and
the road off a home win by 10 points or more and playing their 2nd game
in 3 days. This play is 51-22 since 1997. Wake has averaged just 58.8
ppg in their last 8 games and I don't see them putting up more than that
here. even if the should hit 60 points that would mean Carolina would
have to put up 93 points and I don't see that either as the Heels have
averaged just 75.5 ppg on the road. This game should be played in the
mid 140's.
Oklahoma State/ Texas Tech Over 128: TEXAS
TECH is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a
losing record after 15 or more games since 1997. I feel TT can get
enough points in this one for the game to go over vs an OSU team that
has allowed 66 ppg overall and 78 ppg in their last 5. Texas Tech has
allowed 667.8 ppg and that should provide some scoring for this average
OSU offense (66.2 ppg in their last 5). I expect about 135 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Vanderbilt -2.5 over ARKANSAS: VANDERBILT
is 11-3 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing
<=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while ARKANSAS is 2-11
ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
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