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To Anyone Who May Give a F$%^,
Some of you may or may not be familiar with KENPOM. For those who aren't you can go to kempom.com and learn more about it.
Long story short, this guy has created a website with tons of algorithms and formulas and what not to predict NCAAB games. His predictions have margin of victories (MOV) that are strikingly similar to the line Vegas puts out.
Once in a while, you will find games with larger variances. These are the games I have learned to bet more often than not, with variables in Vegas (team popularity, name recognition, etc) sometimes offsetting things that matter on the court, things KenPom does not take into account.
I posted something earlier in the week on this site about betting Baylor the other night based on this theory. Here is the thread:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=102015600
Low and behold, I went heavy on Baylor, and it paid off. I know that is one isolated incident, but it is the only one I have posted on here.
Low and behold, I went heavy on Baylor, and it paid off. I know that is one isolated incident, but it is the only one I have posted on here.
There will be nights where I can't post because of my job (I manage a restaurant and a lot of times simply dont have the time to do my research), but in the mean time I will post on here not only to keep track, but hopefully help others.
Here are the rules for the system:
Here are the rules for the system:
KenPom System:
Spread must be between 4-12 points- Anything smaller is too close to use the system on, IMO, and anything 12+ is what I define as a BLOWOUT
Win Probability % must be > 55%- KenPom also provides a Win Probability % next to their prediction. This is just the odds, according to the system, that the team wins the game.
Variance between Vegas Line and KenPom MOV must be > 2, for a NEUTRAL SITE game, said variance must be > 3- There will be a number of games within that 0-2 point variance, but anything 3 and over should be noted (I may eventually move the variance requisite up a point, but I want to try this for now).
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Mizzou is 58th in the nation in 3P% (38.4%), but 286th in 2P% (43.1%) and 283rd in FT% (64%)
Elon is 45th in the nation in defending the 3P shot (28.7%)
If Elon can guard the 3 tonight, Mizzou will struggle to get points.