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Kenpom underdog system? Does anyone remember this? Help!

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Posted: #1
Gentlemen


Can anyone remember the specifics of the system that uses Kenpom to pick ML underdogs or who posted it?  I'd really like to find the original thread so that I can make sure I know when the system is supposed to start and what qualifies as a play, this is going to be the only hoops I bet this year.


I don't believe it was KineProfessor but it could have been.  And I believe the system was betting against home favorites of 7(?) points or more whom are ranked outside of the top 150(?) on kenpom.com but I don't know if there were any further criteria beyong that or exactly how strong of a favorite was required to qualify for a play, or where the line was drawn as far as team rankings (150 and below?)


If anyone can lend any info it would be greatly appreciated.  I'd love to revisit how it performed each season as well, any time that I was paying attention it killed.


Cheers
 
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Posted: #2
I think the system you are referring to doesn't start until February.  If I'm not mistaken, it has to do with motivation for the away favorite, and this comes into play in the last half of conference play.  I could be wrong though.


 
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Posted: #3
Yes it was Kine Professor that originally posted the "system".  

A guy by the handle "beaverfan" ran with it the last few years posting it but tweaked it into his own by playing only 1h plays and adjusting some other data points that he felt increased the odds.  But he also started it earlier in the year too, which goes against the original basis of Kine's theory.  

Kine's original system usually started around Feb. 15th because the fundamental basis of the theory was that was the part of the season that poor teams playing at home favored by 6.5 or more over equally poor opponents, lacked the focus and determination to lay their oppononents away.  Usually by this time of season, both teams are in the bottom half of their conference and no chance of winning it to advance to post season, so they could be "mailing in" the rest of their season by then.  

And the theory was to only look at teams ranked 180 or lower in kenpom.   
 
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Posted: #4
My dudes! 

Thanks for the info.  Ugh, February 15th?  Don't know if I have the discipline for that. 

Who should I tail in the hoops forum?
 
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Posted: #5
Spit -- I'll probably start looking for "system" spot plays in late Jan. early Feb., because the last 2 years those "pre-system" plays seemed to hit quite frequently too.

Who to tail now in hoops??? Tough sledding so far this year....nropp has always been solid and he was around earlier, but haven't seen him for awhile after he hit a cold streak and the usual idiots on here bashed the crap out of him.

Other than him, Jfen31 is fairly disciplined and has decent analysis but with mixed results so far.  GWarner is out to another good start for the 3rd year in a row, but makes a lot of plays. Haven't seen the old vets around yet like LasVegasLord, KineProf, Bodio, Sharpstick or Rush in here, but maybe now that CFB over, we'll be graced by their presence soon. A newbie that joined 2 months ago worth keeping an eye might be Captainpap....he's out to 65% clip on 80 plays already. 

BOL bro!
 
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Posted: #6
Forgot one name...Stuckey!  Where's he been this year?  Saw him on the NFL forum but not here yet.  
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:

Spit -- I'll probably start looking for "system" spot plays in late Jan. early Feb., because the last 2 years those "pre-system" plays seemed to hit quite frequently too.

Who to tail now in hoops??? Tough sledding so far this year....nropp has always been solid and he was around earlier, but haven't seen him for awhile after he hit a cold streak and the usual idiots on here bashed the crap out of him.

Other than him, Jfen31 is fairly disciplined and has decent analysis but with mixed results so far.  GWarner is out to another good start for the 3rd year in a row, but makes a lot of plays. Haven't seen the old vets around yet like LasVegasLord, KineProf, Bodio, Sharpstick or Rush in here, but maybe now that CFB over, we'll be graced by their presence soon. A newbie that joined 2 months ago worth keeping an eye might be Captainpap....he's out to 65% clip on 80 plays already. 

BOL bro!


Bodio went tout.
 
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Posted: #8
bumped the thread for you son
 
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Posted: #9
Yeah that KenPom System by KINE was lethal last year.... here are my notes after it ended....

16-10-2 ATS (+500); 7-21 (+880)

SYTEM ENDED

·         Pretty damn good from that bracketbuster Saturday till the end of the reg season

·         62% against the spread

·         25% SU, but just those seven wins crushed a profit!

·         The Pre System (Feb 1- Bracketbuster Saturday) supposedly went like 18-6, 17-7

o   Pretty damn good

·         Pre + System went ~ 33-17 for 66% ATS (+1430)

·         Think about starting this system Feb 1st next year!?


I have way more details if interested.... 


But I am def starting this system Feb 1.... and will play money lines in addition to spreads...



I 

 
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Posted: #10

hey spit,,i also ran with this system...and i did a pre system...started it on jan 21st and it ended up doing quite well. think it was 22-7 or something like that,...id have to go back and look...but i saw a decrease in winners once ppl started posting  and commenting bringing line down and causing lost value.. i spoke with kine on this matter last year and he suggested  not posting to;let the cat out of the bag' so to speak.this year i will not post  them out of respect for him nd i also want to keep value in those lines.

i do know that first halfs were hitting at incredible rate also.

gl...as far as hoops...nropp has his own page now..google him...he gives great analysis as always..

jfen-solid and very knowledgeable..

dream team churns out winners nightly

'ac bum(part of dream team) great half capper.

many other good cappers on here but as alwasy...dont hang around because of some of the idiotic negative posts from ppl. i never understood why ppl comment negatively on ppl trying to help us all out...oh well.gl this year...ryno

 
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Posted: #11
If you have been watching closely, the principles have been making money since Christmas week (coincides with when Kenpom's rankings have enough data to be taken seriously).  Strongest when the spread is 8 or more and the favorite is ranked 200th or worst in Kenpom.  Hopefully you are using the principles to look at games you wouldn't normally consider. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

If you have been watching closely, the principles have been making money since Christmas week (coincides with when Kenpom's rankings have enough data to be taken seriously).  Strongest when the spread is 8 or more and the favorite is ranked 200th or worst in Kenpom.  Hopefully you are using the principles to look at games you wouldn't normally consider. 

Thanks Kine for replying!  I couldn't agree with you more...the principle of the theory is what matters the most!  And I prefer not to even call it that "S" word everyone seems to overuse anyway. Thanks again!
 
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Posted: #13
look up kaesan  he used to use the system

 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Rocafella:

bumped the thread for you son


Thanks

Glad I checked back on it... I will start keeping an eye out tomorrow.
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