2-0, +6.7 units... Clean sweep on WVU side and moneyline. Large play hits yet again, now 7-0 this post season.
POST SEASON ATS: 48-34, +28.8 UNITS
LARGE PLAYS (***): 7-0
MEDIUM PLAYS (**): 12-8
NCAA: 24-21
NIT: 14-4
CBI: 3-5
CIT: 7-4
No large plays today, going to take it fairly easy going into the final four. As it's the early game, here's the first play... I have no opinion on the total for this game. I could see it going either way. I am however considering a total play on Baylor/Duke and maybe Duke minus the points.
Write up to follow.
NCAA
MICH STATE +2**
BOL
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2-0, +6.7 units... Clean sweep on WVU side and moneyline. Large play hits yet again, now 7-0 this post season.
POST SEASON ATS: 48-34, +28.8 UNITS
LARGE PLAYS (***): 7-0
MEDIUM PLAYS (**): 12-8
NCAA: 24-21
NIT: 14-4
CBI: 3-5
CIT: 7-4
No large plays today, going to take it fairly easy going into the final four. As it's the early game, here's the first play... I have no opinion on the total for this game. I could see it going either way. I am however considering a total play on Baylor/Duke and maybe Duke minus the points.
K, what do you think first half under 63.5? Thinking Izzo trys to play a grinder to slow down Tenn
Do people even bother reading posts on here? Or just shoot out questions ?
No large plays today, going to take it fairly easy going into the final four. As it's the early game, here's the first play... I have no opinion on the total for this game. I could see it going either way.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jonzy92000:
K, what do you think first half under 63.5? Thinking Izzo trys to play a grinder to slow down Tenn
Do people even bother reading posts on here? Or just shoot out questions ?
No large plays today, going to take it fairly easy going into the final four. As it's the early game, here's the first play... I have no opinion on the total for this game. I could see it going either way.
I wrote this the other day when I backed them against UNI, and will say it again here... in post season play, Tom Izzo is 5-1 ATS as a fave of -3 or less going back to 2003 and 6-2 ATS as a dog of +5 or less. That's a combined 11-3 ATS in tight lined games. Izzo is a fucking genius this time of the year... he knows his roster so well and gets his team to perform at a high level as a whole even if the individual parts aren't great. I said that MSU is on a road to redemption from last season and I still believe it now.
TENN DEFENSE
When this defense is on, it can be very difficult to stop. Tenn will pressure the Spartans on D with their infamous press but if you can break it, it allows the offense to get shots in transition or open jumpers from outside. Their over-aggressiveness can also lead to a lot of fouls... in the 8 losses this year, Tenn is committing on average 23.88 fouls per game. My biggest concern is that without Lucas, they lose a quality ball-handler, something crucial to escaping the Vols defensive pressure. But I am confident Izzo will devise of plays to create passing lanes.
TENN OFFENSE
The Vols shoot three balls and free throws poorly, and that has pretty much been a recipe for disaster so far this tournament (Kentucky last night being the latest example). IMO, Kentucky and Tenn are more similar than people think and MSU rebounding will be a huge edge going into this game... every loss that Tenn had this year, they were outrebounded. MSU will get second chance looks because of how the clean up on the offensive glass and will also in effect limit Tenn in transition points. Tenn's frontcourt plays smaller than they are capable of and that not ideal when facing good rebounding teams and possess good 2 point field goal defense.
I thought about MSU ML but the extra 15 to 20 cents just didn't seem worth it. It is March after all and we've seen some wild shit. MSU has held opponents to under 40% shooting the last 5 games and has a rebounding differential of 7+ rebounds per game. MSU by 5.
0
Re: Michigan State...
COACH
I wrote this the other day when I backed them against UNI, and will say it again here... in post season play, Tom Izzo is 5-1 ATS as a fave of -3 or less going back to 2003 and 6-2 ATS as a dog of +5 or less. That's a combined 11-3 ATS in tight lined games. Izzo is a fucking genius this time of the year... he knows his roster so well and gets his team to perform at a high level as a whole even if the individual parts aren't great. I said that MSU is on a road to redemption from last season and I still believe it now.
TENN DEFENSE
When this defense is on, it can be very difficult to stop. Tenn will pressure the Spartans on D with their infamous press but if you can break it, it allows the offense to get shots in transition or open jumpers from outside. Their over-aggressiveness can also lead to a lot of fouls... in the 8 losses this year, Tenn is committing on average 23.88 fouls per game. My biggest concern is that without Lucas, they lose a quality ball-handler, something crucial to escaping the Vols defensive pressure. But I am confident Izzo will devise of plays to create passing lanes.
TENN OFFENSE
The Vols shoot three balls and free throws poorly, and that has pretty much been a recipe for disaster so far this tournament (Kentucky last night being the latest example). IMO, Kentucky and Tenn are more similar than people think and MSU rebounding will be a huge edge going into this game... every loss that Tenn had this year, they were outrebounded. MSU will get second chance looks because of how the clean up on the offensive glass and will also in effect limit Tenn in transition points. Tenn's frontcourt plays smaller than they are capable of and that not ideal when facing good rebounding teams and possess good 2 point field goal defense.
I thought about MSU ML but the extra 15 to 20 cents just didn't seem worth it. It is March after all and we've seen some wild shit. MSU has held opponents to under 40% shooting the last 5 games and has a rebounding differential of 7+ rebounds per game. MSU by 5.
I didn't say anything about the MSU offense because that's not the angle I'm playing here... I feel like they have the necessary firepower around the rim, beyond the arc, and from the charity stripe to get the job done. Everyone is over-acheiving now in the wake of Lucas' injury.
0
I didn't say anything about the MSU offense because that's not the angle I'm playing here... I feel like they have the necessary firepower around the rim, beyond the arc, and from the charity stripe to get the job done. Everyone is over-acheiving now in the wake of Lucas' injury.
Spectacular write up. This is the stuff I come here for, not the plus in units that people post. I'm looking for good reasoning and logic and you've provided that for me.
BOL SK!
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Spectacular write up. This is the stuff I come here for, not the plus in units that people post. I'm looking for good reasoning and logic and you've provided that for me.
I didn't say anything about the MSU offense because that's not the angle I'm playing here... I feel like they have the necessary firepower around the rim, beyond the arc, and from the charity stripe to get the job done. Everyone is over-acheiving now in the wake of Lucas' injury.
0
Quote Originally Posted by special__k:
I didn't say anything about the MSU offense because that's not the angle I'm playing here... I feel like they have the necessary firepower around the rim, beyond the arc, and from the charity stripe to get the job done. Everyone is over-acheiving now in the wake of Lucas' injury.
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