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Legendary NCABB Game Of The Year USF @ Temple 3PM EST
Today I played a max bet on USF +15.5 at Temple.
The spot play is derived from a number of my value, situational and "extraordinary" circumstances angles that have aligned for a perfect storm when considering the line.
Here is a brief summary of the circumstances.
Temple is in the midst of a schedule canyon. Some would call this a major trap game.
The Owls are coming off a historic double digit deficit comeback win (in the last 6 mins of the 2nd half) home conference game vs Uconn.
Though the letdown following a win like that is usually reason to inspect their opposition to exploit the let down spot, that angle in this spot against Tempe magnified here by 10 since the Owls will host Big 5 (city series rival) #1 Villanova at home Wed night. This is the first time in Villanova history they have been ranked #1 in the regular season.
As the things go, an additional distraction for Temple will be the honoring of Temple's 1991 #1 team on Sunday.
Now taking into consideration the post let down & look ahead spot, we then need to look at the line of the USF game and the ability of USF or Temple to cover this game tomorrow.
On Jan 31 ( a few weeks ago) Temple and USF already played, Temple squeaking out a 70-63 win @ USF.
Watching the previous match-up, Temple had real trouble (as they have had all year) with playing vs. skilled big bodies. USF Guerrero & Cousins (Yes the Boogie's younger brother) had 19 rebounds and dominated the boards in addition to 4 USF players scoring double figures. The Tempo was slow paced and not indicative a game where a team would win by a margin of 10+.
I also note that through 23 games played this year by Temple, they have won by 15 points or more once. Keeping this stat in mind, Temple has really played down to the level of lower level opponents when amping it up vs the elite teams.
Taking into account the schedule (and the impending home game of the decade vs Nova on deck,) Temple playing down to opponents this season and their inability to margin lesser opponent's and a 15+ spread, I have maxed out on USF.
Play USF +15.5 as my GOM.
Good Luck!
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