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LOCK OF THE SEASON

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by PGAromes82:

Well let me see. Home team ranked 15th in the nation. Playing at home. Beat the other team already this year at a place that is hard to win. Other team has no big road wins. Visiting team is Perimeter shooting team with no inside physical presence. Home team can dominate the paint. Out of 100% of my bankroll I would put 30-50%


This is flat-out laughable and enough to convince me that you have no clue what you're talking about.

Drew Gordon is 13th in the nation in rebounds per game. 13th! He's averaging more than 10 per game! Ever watched UNM play? Gordon is a massive presence in the paint and is as strong and tough as any player in the league.




 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by PGAromes82:

Well let me see. Home team ranked 15th in the nation. Playing at home. Beat the other team already this year at a place that is hard to win. Other team has no big road wins. Visiting team is Perimeter shooting team with no inside physical presence. Home team can dominate the paint. Out of 100% of my bankroll I would put 30-50%

Oh boy.

Unfortunately, you wont be in this game long. Not as much of your line of reasoning (which is about as elementary as it gets when it comes to capping a game); but with your money management. Risking 50% of your bankroll (on anything, not to mention a game) is just suicide...You may win this round, but that approach will have you in a huge hole scratching your ass wondering what the hell happened?

Not trying to be a dick, but its the God's honest.

 
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Posted: #28
Is jamaal frankilin playing today? I heard he was day to day with a ankle injury
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by raems:

You don't make a single point that the book doesn't already know and hasn't already factored into the line.

Putting over 7-8% (and that's a generously high percentage) of any legitimate bankroll on any one play is laughable. Putting 40% of a bankroll on any one play basically confirms that you don't really have a bankroll to speak of.

Not a true statement on bankroll %.

There are plenty of high dollar cappers that will look for 3-4 games per year and move heavy on those lines when news breaks.  A late scratch that you hear about 2 hours before the coach puts in the lineup, heavy line pricing due to public movement, large-gap middles, sure there are various scenarios where big cappers push 30%+ of the year's roll in.  It's hard enough to be consistently good all year.  Those heavy bets when you have a statistical advantage can put you over the top on an annual basis.

That being said, I don't think this game fits those criteria.  But people will bet 30%+ if the right scenario comes up.  50% is way too much of a risk to take if you are talking $1k units.

 
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Posted: #30
Lol whatever Raems. Let's not get into a pissing contest on bankrolls. I do this for fun and love to gamble. Yeah I know Vegas knows this crap. That's why as an 11.5 point dog SDST goes into the Pit and beats UNM??? Vegas saw that coming!!! Lol Just like Miami beat Duke in Cameron last week!! Vegas saw that coming. That's why Miami was 11.5 point dog??? Yeah Vegas gets it right all the time. I don't claim to be a pro gambler or Capper. I do know more than you about this conference and these teams since I watch a ton of games. When I see a game that's off I post it. You can take a road team that doesn't play anything other than cupcakes most of the season. UNM Biggest wins -ST. Louis at home and Wyoming twice. Neither one will be in the tournament. UNM Losses Santa Clara neutral game, NMSU at home, SDST at home, UNLV on the road. SDST Big Wins- Arizona on the Road, Long Beach St at home, Cal at home, UNLV at home, UNM on the road??. Losses Creighton at home, Baylor on the road, Colorado St on the road, UNLV by 2 on the road.

Hmmm..... Aztecs I guess
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #31
Give me the Lobos at a pick...I don't know shit about either of these teams but I know where to bet based on this line. Whenever a top 25 team isn't favored against an unranked team by more than 2 pts, take the unranked team. Even better when that top 25 team is the underdog. For example Clemson and LSU last night...doesn't always hit but has worked well for me this season.
 
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Posted: #32
JFeN they haven't played anybody!!! UNLV kicked their ass. NMSU a physical team beat them up at the Pit. They lose to Santa Clara on a neutral site. SDSt at home. They have trouble with teams with any size or physicality!! Look at last year also. When you shoot the 3 as good as UNM does you have a shot in every game. But that's a problem they rely on it too much.
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #33
Clemson and LSU were HOME Teams Tbad. SDST is at home and they are ranked!! Not the other way around.
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #34
PGAromes - I'll take all the action you want. DM me.
 
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Posted: #35
I can argue all day long lol Anybody Else???
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by PGAromes82:

JFeN they haven't played anybody!!! UNLV kicked their ass. NMSU a physical team beat them up at the Pit. They lose to Santa Clara on a neutral site. SDSt at home. They have trouble with teams with any size or physicality!! Look at last year also. When you shoot the 3 as good as UNM does you have a shot in every game. But that's a problem they rely on it too much.


And UNM returned the favor with an extremely convincing win in Las Cruces a few weeks later...

The polls don't matter. KenPom has New Mexico at #12. Aztecs? 55.

Who do you think knows more? The ESPN crowd, or the premiere stats guru in college basketball?
 
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Posted: #37
Yeah ok BOBCAT I trust you LMAO
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Posted: #38
Yeah they beat NMSU in Las Cruces. NMSUs coach is terrible. Being an alum I have watched many games and they have no flow. Lots of talent but coaching is bad. UNM is just unproven. Cupcake schedule you agree???
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #39
Win or lose on this game, can I be your bookie moving forward  
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



This is flat-out laughable and enough to convince me that you have no clue what you're talking about.

Drew Gordon is 13th in the nation in rebounds per game. 13th! He's averaging more than 10 per game! Ever watched UNM play? Gordon is a massive presence in the paint and is as strong and tough as any player in the league.


I was just about to add this, thank you for pointing it out as well. 100% agree with this. Guy is averaging a double-double.
Id say thats an inside physical presence
 
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Posted: #41
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #42
We will see tonight!! Take the Blos all you want I just don't see it. Anyone has watched the Lobos the last 15 years like have knows they are a perimeter team. No matter the coach they live and die by the 3. They are a lot like Baylor. They have size but don't play physical ball. They can win if they shoot the 3 well tonight. SDST went toe to toe with UNLV on the road. UNM got blown out in UNLV. UNM doesn't have 1 impressive win this year. All I'm saying here. Not rocket science l
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Posted: #43
My pt was that Vegas knows the public loves Top25 teams and these suckers will bet 50% of their bankroll when they see a line "thats to good to be true". Good luck man!
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by utfootball4:

You got your news late, it was announced earlier that day.

Yeah, it became official after my bet was in.

 
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Posted: #45
[Quote: Originally Posted by TBadour1] My pt was that Vegas knows the public loves Top25 teams and these suckers will bet 50% of their bankroll when they see a line "thats to good to be true". Good luck man! [/Quote

Thats good info!!! I didnt say Id bet 50% though lol. Probably be around 30-35%. I took the last line between these 2 at SDST +11.5 and a little on SDST ML. Howd that work for me? Can you Check??? Vegas had that line as too good to be true. What happened???
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #46
To me Vegas is also gambling on this line. Yeah guys will pound SDST. If they Lobos win Vegas wins big. Doesn't always happen that way. Can anybody on this site honestly tell me that the Lobos win easy here??? Or tell me you are putting the LOBOS as your biggest bet of the season???? If you are show me the ticket lol I put it out there for you guys. Win or lose I still like the Aztecs in this one!!!

“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #47
gonna parlay the over and aztecs ! 
best of luck !
 
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Posted: #48
I would tread lightly on either side.  New Mexico has been badass ATS on the road this year, and perhaps more importantly, they have covered by an average margin of just under 4 points more than the spread, which puts them 15th in the country in regards to margin of victory in comparison to spread.  SDSU has some items in their favor as well, however I see too many trends against either team to call this game a lock either direction.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



And UNM returned the favor with an extremely convincing win in Las Cruces a few weeks later...

The polls don't matter. KenPom has New Mexico at #12. Aztecs? 55.

Who do you think knows more? The ESPN crowd, or the premiere stats guru in college basketball?

Do you think UNM right now makes it in the NCAA tournament JFEN ?

Opposite side Do you think SDST makes it in the NCAA Tourney right now?

SDST is the better team you agree???? Not asking KENPOM or whatever. I'm asking you JFEN. Do you think UNM is better than SDST on the road???





“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
 
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Posted: #50
Last time I ever read a post from this guy. Cost me a ton of jelly beans. Flat out awful analysis.
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