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Easy Win LAst Night On Northwestern -6.5!
The above reasoning is why I know that there is extra value in playing the home Redhawks from Miami tonight. The lesson here is that oddsmakers know what the gamblers opinions are going to be, before setting the line, and they are forced to adjust true odds to accomodate these public perceptions. The oddsmakers know that the SU team records alone can predict where money will be be bet
In tonight's case, its pretty safe to assume that the public player will favor Akron at a higher clip because you have a team over .500 winning percentage versus a team with a sub .500 winning percentage. Its only logical, right?
But lets take a closer look and see if this is really the case.
For example, to date of Miami O's 10 losses, 6 were to teams in the topp 25. Four of those 6 games were against top 5 teams (at the time the game occurred). They actually have played one of the top 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date that includes road games at Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and Wright State. At home they had losses to San Diego State and Cincinnati. There was actually a stretch where Miami played 3 top 25 teams in an 11-day stretch. Wow, take those games out and Miami is 7-4.
Miami has also been coming into it's own lately and despite the monster schedule, in the last 11 games Miami has had at least four players score in double figures in a game 5 different times. Miami is balanced and has 4 starters that are averaging double figures scoring.
Akron, despite the loftier record, only tough opponents so far have been Temple (who they lost to by 40) and Minnesota, Miami FL and Ohio. All Losses. The Minnesota game was actually a game where the final score wasn't as close as it looked as MInn. dominated that game wire to wire. Akron's schedule strength thus far has been 137.
So far Miami is 6-3 SU at home and Akron is 2-4 SU this season in a visitor role.
If it is a close game, as the line indicates it may be, note that Miami was tops in the MAC last year in FT% and is hitting over 75% FTs at home so far this year as opposed to Akron's 65% FT conversion rate on the road. With this high FT% conversion rate for Miami, consider at home this year they are getting to the FT line an average 19.9 times per game (This would be very beneficial in tight game.)
Tonight I played on Miami Oh -2
Good Luck!
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