2-1 posted record, last post on 12/13
As regular readers of my posts know, I naturally gravitate towards Over plays that typically involve fast paced teams, highly efficient offenses, or highly inefficient defenses. Tonight however presents an opportunity to focus on another angle that I have mentioned numerous times in the past – and that is scoring with no time coming off of the clock.
Play: Manhattan / South Carolina Over 139
Based on the style with which both teams play, there should be an abundance of free throws in tonight’s game. Why you ask? Well let’s start with Manhattan. Only 3 other teams have more FTA / FGA in the country season to date. In fact, the Jaspers get 29.9% of their offense from the charity stripe (#6).
On the flip side, Manhattan struggles to defend without fouling in their aggressive man-to-man defense as only 16 other teams are giving up more FTA/FGA. This results in their opponents scoring 30.1% (#11) of their points from the FT line. South Carolina on the other hand, struggles just as badly. Their FT rate ranks #324 and opponents get 30.7% (#9) of their offense production from the foul line.
I also think there is some value based on the Gamecocks only having played 5 games so far this season. Their adjO is respectable on the surface at 1.045. But when you dig a little deeper, you realize that they have already played two top 15 defenses (Clemson and Oklahoma St), and Baylor who isn’t too shabby at #49 -- which would skew their offensive statistics down.
Detractors of this play will point to last year’s meeting: an ugly 63-57 USC win on only 59 possessions. But one must remember that do-everything guard George Beamon didn’t play in last year’s match-up and Manhattan struggled to find an identity the first 3 months of the season without his services (the result was a slow (#316 pace), defense (#27 adjD) minded team). With him back, they once again are playing at a faster pace (#108) and project to compete for the MAAC title.
Based on these factors, and a game that should approach 70 possessions (KenPom predicts 69), there should be every opportunity for both teams to score more than 1 point per possession and get the total over.
Good luck if you decide to make a play 
Hot Forum Topics
