Mar 9 Plays

South Florida ML -150 vs East Carolina

6 Units to win 4

South Florida -3 vs East Carolina (-105)

2 Units

*Best #'s on FanDuel

We are very fortunate to have East Carolina coming into this game with a better record than South Florida. USF is one of the best sub-500 teams in the country as talked about in previous write ups. This is represented by them being roughly 60 spots ahead of ECU in KenPom ratings and USF having the highest negative variance outcome % in conference this season. ECU, expected to have been led by Javon Small this year, managed to still overachieve this year as they were a unanimous pick for dead last in the American with Small in mind. Despite the Wichita St senior night loss, USF is actually peaking right now, having won 4 of 5 prior to that loss and holding their last 3 opponents to 65 ppg. When you go into a neutral environment, particularly for the first round of the tournament, rebounding becomes far more important; the gap in that statistic is massive between these 2 teams and should lead to plentiful 2nd chance points for USF with few for ECU. Perhaps most importantly, USF already beat ECU twice this year in games that were not as close as the final score indicates. USF comfortably led by double digits at ECU most of the way peaking at 16 late, then led ECU by 22 in the 2nd half in Tampa before the second team executed half ass defense in the final 5 minutes of that one, while those on the bench were making post-game plans. This should be a focused, and sizeable win for the more veteran team who legitimately has the talent to make some noise in this tourney.

Nice write up keep crush’em 

VCU -6 vs Davidson (-110)

3 Units

*Best # on MGM

Defense travels on neutral floors and VCU has the best in conference by a mile. Davidson was able to sustain a 2-3 possession lead over badly regressing St. Bonaventure by committing a season low 5 turnovers vs a team w/ a bottom 3 def efficiency rating in conference. That won't be case in this quarterfinal. VCU wins by 10+.

Bookie, is it any concern if guard Selton Miguel isn't playing for South Florida? He missed the last game and SF got wrecked by Wichita. Mind you EC is without Small, but they seem to have adapted and are playing a bit better of late. -3 definitely is a favourable number though and SF did beat them by 8 and 11 during regular season.

@rangersmets

From what I read, it seemed disciplinary and unlikely to keep their 6th man out of the postseason/more than the Wichita game. I agree that ECU has definitely adapted without Small to being a little more competitive than those initial games. That said, this is 3 points and a cheap ML.

West Virginia +4 vs Kansas (-120)

3 Units

*Best # on FanDuel and MGM

@Bookie_Crushers

 Thanks man ... yeh that's definitely better if it's not an injury. Think I will unload before it climbs to 4 or so. Cheers

BC

Good Luck BC

You were on fire yesterday.  GL today

Good luck BC.  

Bookie_Crushers

@Bookie_Crushers

 Great write up buddy. I always look forward to your reads. 

BC 

Thanks for sharing Crushers!

@Bookie_Crushers

 BC, you don't think the VCU line opening at 5.5 isn't low and a possible concern? 

@Bookie_Crushers

 Good luck today 

@Bookie_Crushers

@jpot34

No. That’s what I expected. It even rose to some 8’s in some places now too. So par for the course.

@Bookie_Crushers

@Bookie_Crushers

 Dammit the line is now 7.5 on VCU.  I saw your post and then went to check and the line was -7 so I wanted to wait to see if it comes back down but instead it went up now to -7.5.  Would you still take it at -7.5  How high would you take it up to? 

also what are your thoughts on VCU -4 first half? 

thanks again for sharing my friend. 

it is amazing you have time to do write ups