Using 2014 cause that's when they changed the shot clock
For 1st round 1st half unders
And for 1st round full game unders
Thought another poster mentioned last year that a big chunk of 1st round 1st halfs went under.
If i remember right the full game unders didn't hit quite as well cause we discussed just blind betting every under in round 1
I think the same poster also mentioned that a ton of totals of 150.0 or higher in round 1 hit the under as long as they don't involve the 1,2 and 3 seeds games...might just been the 1 and 2 seeds
Anyone able to help me run the queries on killersports or that other query website I can think of the name of..I am terrible with the site but know lots of people on here use it
Thanks in advance and hopefully I'm remembering this some what correctly....
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Anyone have the numbers handy???
Using 2014 cause that's when they changed the shot clock
For 1st round 1st half unders
And for 1st round full game unders
Thought another poster mentioned last year that a big chunk of 1st round 1st halfs went under.
If i remember right the full game unders didn't hit quite as well cause we discussed just blind betting every under in round 1
I think the same poster also mentioned that a ton of totals of 150.0 or higher in round 1 hit the under as long as they don't involve the 1,2 and 3 seeds games...might just been the 1 and 2 seeds
Anyone able to help me run the queries on killersports or that other query website I can think of the name of..I am terrible with the site but know lots of people on here use it
Thanks in advance and hopefully I'm remembering this some what correctly....
Funny, cause I've been looking for the same numbers but cant find them. I ran across them last year, and 1st half unders in 4-8 seeded games in the 1st round since 2014 were hitting at somewhere around 65%-ish (basing off memory) So me and a buddy played this last year, and I do remember specifically we made a profit, but it wasn't at that rate, a little smaller. Vegas catches on quick, lol. Lmk if you find exact numbers
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@dubz4dummyz
Funny, cause I've been looking for the same numbers but cant find them. I ran across them last year, and 1st half unders in 4-8 seeded games in the 1st round since 2014 were hitting at somewhere around 65%-ish (basing off memory) So me and a buddy played this last year, and I do remember specifically we made a profit, but it wasn't at that rate, a little smaller. Vegas catches on quick, lol. Lmk if you find exact numbers
Disclaimer- haven't watched a ncaab game this year
went 3-2 last years March madness. All 5 plays totals ranging between 131.5 and 133.5 ....4 of the plays were 1st round...other play was isu/mia but not sure what round ... date was mar.25/22
Leans...like the top 4 the most
March 16
Wvu/MD under 139.5...missed this at 140.5
Psu/tam under 134.5....stayed here since open...looking at numbers expecting a tight game
Boise/nw under 128.0...missed this at 129.0...was hoping for 130+
Cofc/sdsu under 141.5....stayed here since open...worried about cofc defense...can they slow san Diego...
Fur/Uva under 132.5
Aub/Iowa under 152.5
Colg/tex under 147.5
March 17
Vcu/smc under 123.5....low total...Vegas expecting low score
Mtst/ksu under 139.5...can Montana state slow ksu
Kent/ind under 140.5
Usc/msu under 138.5
Those are the initial gut leans with a quick look at numbers to confirm
Do any of the highest scorers/best players in the country play for these teams??? I got burned by some dude from New Mexico state last year...my excel says his last name was Allen...apparently he was good...gonna try to avoid unders with top scorers in the nation
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Just gonna use this thread for leans/picks
Disclaimer- haven't watched a ncaab game this year
went 3-2 last years March madness. All 5 plays totals ranging between 131.5 and 133.5 ....4 of the plays were 1st round...other play was isu/mia but not sure what round ... date was mar.25/22
Leans...like the top 4 the most
March 16
Wvu/MD under 139.5...missed this at 140.5
Psu/tam under 134.5....stayed here since open...looking at numbers expecting a tight game
Boise/nw under 128.0...missed this at 129.0...was hoping for 130+
Cofc/sdsu under 141.5....stayed here since open...worried about cofc defense...can they slow san Diego...
Fur/Uva under 132.5
Aub/Iowa under 152.5
Colg/tex under 147.5
March 17
Vcu/smc under 123.5....low total...Vegas expecting low score
Mtst/ksu under 139.5...can Montana state slow ksu
Kent/ind under 140.5
Usc/msu under 138.5
Those are the initial gut leans with a quick look at numbers to confirm
Do any of the highest scorers/best players in the country play for these teams??? I got burned by some dude from New Mexico state last year...my excel says his last name was Allen...apparently he was good...gonna try to avoid unders with top scorers in the nation
NW under 68 points in 5 straight. Only 1 team scored over 70 in those 5 games.
Boise under 70 points on 3 of last 5
Neither team has good offensive numbers on neutral court
Both teams only played twice since March 5th
Both teams near bottom of nation in possessions per game
Both teams middle of the pack in 3 point attempts. NW near bottom in 3 pt %
Both teams below top 100 in points per game
Both teams top 40 in points per game allowed. Nw allows 62.5 Boise allows 64.7
Potential risk for OT. Don't like that NW jacks up 23 3s a game. Also don't like that both teams pretty good from the FT line
Big arena effect- some players struggle with depth perception in the bigger arenas with bigger backdrops. A lot of games are played in tighter school gyms
Potential for some rust with long layoff between games
Big stage effect- biggest stage for a lot of these players. Little extra pressure on every shot. Some players crumple under the bright lights.
Expecting some D to be played between these teams in a win or go home game
Seeing some 127.5 out there so locking in now
Looking for one team to struggle to get to 60 points
Looking for a 65-59 type game....68-60 gets me a push....missed 129.0 if I get burned by a point that will blow
GL all
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1 locked in
Boise/NW under 128.0 @1.89 0.5 to win 0.445
NW under 68 points in 5 straight. Only 1 team scored over 70 in those 5 games.
Boise under 70 points on 3 of last 5
Neither team has good offensive numbers on neutral court
Both teams only played twice since March 5th
Both teams near bottom of nation in possessions per game
Both teams middle of the pack in 3 point attempts. NW near bottom in 3 pt %
Both teams below top 100 in points per game
Both teams top 40 in points per game allowed. Nw allows 62.5 Boise allows 64.7
Potential risk for OT. Don't like that NW jacks up 23 3s a game. Also don't like that both teams pretty good from the FT line
Big arena effect- some players struggle with depth perception in the bigger arenas with bigger backdrops. A lot of games are played in tighter school gyms
Potential for some rust with long layoff between games
Big stage effect- biggest stage for a lot of these players. Little extra pressure on every shot. Some players crumple under the bright lights.
Expecting some D to be played between these teams in a win or go home game
Seeing some 127.5 out there so locking in now
Looking for one team to struggle to get to 60 points
Looking for a 65-59 type game....68-60 gets me a push....missed 129.0 if I get burned by a point that will blow
Wvu/Maryland under 137.5....gonna lay off incase wvu decides to not play defense
Psu/tam under 134.5...2 red hot teams..gonna lay off for that reason..but should be a tight game...could see both teams push 70 points
Charl/sdsu under 141.5....don't like charl pace of play and 3 point attempts...they like to shoot early in shot clock which gives sdsu more shot oppos as well....still a bit of a high number at 141.5 imo
Colg/tex under 147.5....could be a shootout
Aub/Iowa under 152.5....wonder if auburn will try to slow the pace ....need one team to push 78+ points...
Fur/uva...Furman avg 81 a game....doubt they get that but total only 132.5
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Wvu/Maryland under 137.5....gonna lay off incase wvu decides to not play defense
Psu/tam under 134.5...2 red hot teams..gonna lay off for that reason..but should be a tight game...could see both teams push 70 points
Charl/sdsu under 141.5....don't like charl pace of play and 3 point attempts...they like to shoot early in shot clock which gives sdsu more shot oppos as well....still a bit of a high number at 141.5 imo
Colg/tex under 147.5....could be a shootout
Aub/Iowa under 152.5....wonder if auburn will try to slow the pace ....need one team to push 78+ points...
Fur/uva...Furman avg 81 a game....doubt they get that but total only 132.5
2nd round unders little riskier as teams just played and aren't as rusty...plus theoretically the "better" teams left which should mean slightly higher scores
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First round unders went an amazing 24-8
2nd round unders little riskier as teams just played and aren't as rusty...plus theoretically the "better" teams left which should mean slightly higher scores
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...hoping someone has the numbers
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