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MEAN ST DEVIATION PLAY

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Posted: #26
nbafan...good to see you again.....its been a while
 
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Posted: #27

tafter, let me see if I have this right in NCAABB for example:

You are using two criteria to identify plays. When the sum of Team A's margin of victory and Team B's margin of loss is 65 or more in their last games, fade Team A.

OR

When Team A has posted more than 1 Standard Dev. above the mean for it's last two games AND held it's opponent to at least 1 Standard Dev. below the mean for it's last two games, fade Team A.

Is this correct?

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

tafter, let me see if I have this right in NCAABB for example:

You are using two criteria to identify plays. When the sum of Team A's margin of victory and Team B's margin of loss is 65 or more in their last games, fade Team A.

OR

When Team A has posted more than 1 Standard Dev. above the mean for it's last two games AND held it's opponent to at least 1 Standard Dev. below the mean for it's last two games, fade Team A.

Is this correct?

 

That's exactly the two plays!  

 
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Posted: #29
You don' think that just a margin of victory of more than 2 Std. Dev. in it's last two games would be sufficient to fade team A? That would require you to calculate the Std. Dev. for each particular game that looks like it would qualify because the tempo of all BB games will alter the Std. Deviation for each game score. Using the same blanket Std. Dev. for all games will never allow plays against slow tempo teams.
 
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Posted: #30

your points are well taken, and this may inspire a further idea for yourself, but I'm not going to take near system plays.  I want to copy that SD CINCY game every time i get a chance

 

 
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Posted: #31

Gardner-Webb lost in OT by 2 points.  This game wasn't on any book's board, but I'm quite sure it would have been a win as Liberty would have been the favorite in this game. 

I'm not counting it as a win or a loss because I had not chance to be played either way.

4-0

1/3/2011 are the next plays happy new year.

 

 
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Posted: #32
what about Lousville-2, they lost by 15 pts, was a not game?
 
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Posted: #33

louisville did not fit the system

the NCAA back to back play is when the score is 82-56 or worse for both.  I'm sorry about the confusion. 

one of KU's opponents was 61, i must have misread as 51 or something.  I do apologize. 

mean 69

stdev 13

69+13

69-13

 

 
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Posted: #34
any plays for today????
 
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Posted: #35
Texas Tech's last 2 games....

Weber State (W) 64 - 21 ... won by 43
Houston (W) 35-20 .... won by 15

N-Western's last 2 games...

Illinois (L) 27-48 ... lost by 21
Wisconsin (L) 23-70...lost by 47

In game 1 TTech won by 43, NW lost by 21 (total 64 pt swing)
In game 2 TTech won by 15, NW lost by 47 (total 62 pt swing)




Does that qualify for anything?
 
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Posted: #36

STAY AWAY. . .

 

I'm from Chicago. . . NWester sucks without their SR QB

NO plays today. . not till 1/3/2011

 

 
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Posted: #37

BTW, I never crunched Numbers for NCAA Football. . .don't misquote my plays please. . .

the only numbers I've offered are for NFL, NCAABasketball, and NHL

 

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

STAY AWAY. . .

 

I'm from Chicago. . . NWester sucks without their SR QB

NO plays today. . not till 1/3/2011

 



Don't worry, I wouldn't have touched them with a 39 and a half foot pole without that QB... but the line movement seemed beyond suspicious, so I took the OVER assuming that NW-ern would find a way to score 24+... it worked
 
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Posted: #39

Hello TAFTER, I am interested in following your system for the various sports and have 2 questions:

#1  What was Dan Gordon's backtesting results for his NFL 50 point swing system?

#2   Can you please explain how VANCOUVER is a play on January 3rd in NHL if their next game is against Colorodo tonight? 

Thanks!

 

 
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Posted: #40
Look at that tafter, you have new guys signing up just to ask you questions.
 
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Posted: #41

Great Play FIRE . . . That what's nice about having a system.  There's a place to start in our logic. 

ROB MONTE. . I'm not certain of the 50 pt swing percentage, but I wouldn't doubt if it was over 70%.  Why do I say this? because it just doesn't come up very often, and most cappers will play other systems as well; hence, the 60% for a professional. 

The Vancouver fade is a no go.  I'm sorry for any inconvenience, everyone.  The do look  like a great team to fade, but it's not a system play, and I screwed up again. One of the problems I'm having is finding a site that lists the previous teams scores in a more orgainezed fashion.  Many of them are using acutal calendars and it has screwed me up a little.

Welcome to covers Rob

 
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Posted: #42
Ask around and find which is the best, but you might want to shell out a couple of dollars for some good software or a good website with accurate info.  I know 'statfox' is one, but that's not my department.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

NHL

8 Point Swing --> fade the fav

4-1 or worse back to back --> fade 3rd game

 

NFL

50 point swing --> fade the fav

30-12 or worse back to back --> fade the 3rd game

 

NCAAB

65 pt swing --> fade the fav

82-56 or worse --> fade the fav

 

NBA

50 Point Swing --> fade the fav

108-88 or worse --> fade the fav

Taft, why is the NBA only a 50 pt. swing when NCAAB is 65?  Shouldn't the NBA be higher or same?

 
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Posted: #44
are there any records of this systems success?????
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

Taft, why is the NBA only a 50 pt. swing when NCAAB is 65?  Shouldn't the NBA be higher or same?

 

 

In Standard Deviation, the further the highest possible points are away from the lowest possible points, the higher the standard deviation. 

The less the fluxuation is in any particular set of data, the lower the STD. 

 
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by tonislug:

are there any records of this systems success?????

 

 

Huge. . 85 bears ATS under this system 0 - 2, SD lost against Cincy, NE lost ATS ag G Bay with a 2nd string QB. 

I'm 4 - 0 using this, and I found some plays for tonight, and tomorrow.  I posted them in the College basketball forum 

 

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