Wisconsin Milwaukee v. Wright State 7 et. At Wright State
Opening Line: Wright State -6/129 Current Line: Wright State -6.5/127.5
Wisconsin Milwaukee comes into this game red hot in the Horizon League tournament. They have won four in a row and covered in each of them. First, they played Detroit in the opening round and won by 10 at home. Then they played Valpo and Green Bay in Green Bay. Against Valpo, they only shot 37% from the field and still won by 17. Against the number one seed Green Bay, they won in OT 73-66. This game was played at Green Bay, and was a huge upset. So Milwaukee just beat their rival, a favorite to win the conference, in OT, and their house and now have to go to Wright State for a chance to go to the big dance. Seems like a very emotional high against Green Bay which could lead to a let down here tonight. However with a chance to go to the dance on the line, likely they are still up for this game. I am just not so sure that they didn’t already win their super bowl last game out against their rivals. They have had three days off to prep for this game, so maybe that will help bring their focus and emotions back for tonight at Wright State. I am just not sure what team we see tonight from Milwaukee.
In terms of scheme, Milwaukee doesn’t really excel anymore in the game. They are not ranked above 100th in any offensive or defensive category. Milwaukee is more guard orientated with their leading scorer being Jordan Aaron at 14 ppg. He went off against Green Bay scoring 28 in the huge win. They have some bigs can score down low with Kelm and Tiby, but this team usually wins or loses with their guards.
On the other side in comes Wright State having won six in a row and covering in their last four. To get here they had to beat Oakland and Cleveland State in Green Bay. They beat an up and down 3 point shooting Oakland team 73-57, holding them to just 29% from three. Against second seeded Cleveland State, they won by 5 while shooting 55% from the field and 50% from three. They also come into this game after three days off, and this championship game is being played on their home court. They lost in this same championship game last year to Valpo. That should give this senior orientated team an experience advantage here tonight.
Wright State is an experienced team with both Darling and Pacher as seniors. These are their bigs that they like to run their offense through. Arceneaux is their PG who runs the show and slows the tempo down. They like to slow the game and run their offensive sets by getting the ball inside and look for inside out shots. This Wright State team has balance with only Pacher averaging double figures, but most of their offense starts down low. This team plays damn good defense, with usually keeps them in the game.
The problem is with the low possession game that Wright State usually plays it is harder to cover a higher spread of 6 points. As a team Wright State does shoot 73% on the year from the line, which could help out come late in the game if it turns into a fouling.
The first matchup of this season, Wright State dominated Milwaukee at home 73-57. They jumped out to an early lead, and never looked back. Just nine days later, Milwaukee won the second game 68-64. Milwaukee jumped out to a huge early first half lead 38-23, but Wright State jumped back and could have won at the end. Milwaukee basically won the game from the free throw line. In both games, Milwaukee has really struggled from three point land going 3-15 and 3-14. Wright State has held their own or beaten Milwaukee badly in three of four halves of basketball they have played this season.
So to sum it up, you have an underdog red hot Milwaukee team that just beat the favorite, their rival Green Bay, in OT to advance to this game on their home court. Now they have to travel to Wright State, an experienced team that lost in this game last year with a lot of seniors. Wright State is going to slow it down and play solid defense and pound the ball in the paint. Hard not to like Wright State in this spot, only thing that scares me is laying 6.5 points. The big question is Milwaukee going to bring in the momentum into this game from the win against Green Bay, or was that their biggest game of the season. Something tells you they may come out a little flat against a team that lost this game last year and all offseason wanted to win this.
Play: Wright State -6 (buying half a point). Could easily see a 3-6 win here for Wright State in a close game, but got to value I believe that Wright State has.
blom
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