I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous
years anymore, but I had a few extra moments this afternoon and thought I’d share
some thoughts on a total I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that
another platform allows for (and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).
For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based. First post of the season:
In the two years prior to Andre Payne taking over for Mississippi Valley St, the Delta Devils under Chico Potts were known for playing fast and not playing much defense. Potts’ teams finished both years in the top 15 of tempo nationally (#13 in ’13 and #6 in ’14), and in the bottom 25 of adjD (#327 in ’13 and #332 in ’14). It’s no wonder that his team struggled to a combined 14-46 record under his tenure.
For the rebuilding project, in steps Andre Payne from the NAIA coaching ranks. Will MVSU’s style change with a new coach in place? Based on the preseason quotes from Payne, the answer is “no”. From Blue Ribbon, Payne states: “I’m used to putting up 80 to 85 points a game. We won’t have a lot of size, so we’re going to be an up-tempo team.” And based on his debut on Friday night in Bloomington vs IU, he wasn’t lying. The Delta Devils lost 116-65 on 81 possessions (allowed 1.43 ppp) to an IU team that will struggle to finish in the top half of the B10 this season.
But that is just one data point. Let’s take a look at the non-conference results from last year versus the opponents they were truly overmatched against. In those 10 games, they allowed 92.5 ppg, only versus Georgia Tech did they not allow 80+ points. Additionally, MVSU and Mississippi St actually played each other last season. The Bulldogs won that game 94-72 on 75 possessions. In fact, the 94 points scored was a season high for Miss St last year.
Now the status of Craig Sword (leading returning scorer for Miss St) for tonight’s game is still unknown as he missed the opener vs Western Carolina. But situationally speaking, there are several things to like about tonight’s match up despite Miss St only winning the opener 66 – 56 vs WCU. First, despite the low score, they did post 1.08 ppp. Secondly, the Bulldogs attacked the basket and attempted 37 free throws in the game (scoring with no time coming off of the clock is always good when backing an “over”). Third, the pace of that game was not indicative of the style that Ricky Ray has had his Bulldog teams play at since coming to Starkville creates more value. Friday’s game only had 61 possessions. In the previous two years, his teams ranked in the top 75 nationally with respect to pace.
Coming off of 3-15 SEC season, it will be important to build the confidence of the young Bulldog roster early; and tonight’s match-up provides the perfect opportunity for that against an inferior opponent that will allow plenty of great scoring chances. KenPom predicts an 84-62 final on 71 possessions. But based on style and results from the last couple of seasons, I see a final more like 90-65.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
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