Monster...I think JT was talking about something totally different in his Kansas to good to be true thread. That was if a line looks to good to be true it usually is but the public still plays it. Here he is also going against the public but there was no mention of the line being good or bad.
BOL JT, you always offer a unique insight to the games and although we may be opposite, I respect your plays.
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Monster...I think JT was talking about something totally different in his Kansas to good to be true thread. That was if a line looks to good to be true it usually is but the public still plays it. Here he is also going against the public but there was no mention of the line being good or bad.
BOL JT, you always offer a unique insight to the games and although we may be opposite, I respect your plays.
Sportsinsights.com has 66% of 5354 bets on Nova and 63% of 3943 on Ok St.
I think Nova is definitely a public play regardless of the posters on Covers... you have to think of how many Joe Pub's there are out there that know dick about what they are betting on and never visit a forum like Covers but are taking the #4 team in the country getting points.
Regardless, BOL
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Sportsinsights.com has 66% of 5354 bets on Nova and 63% of 3943 on Ok St.
I think Nova is definitely a public play regardless of the posters on Covers... you have to think of how many Joe Pub's there are out there that know dick about what they are betting on and never visit a forum like Covers but are taking the #4 team in the country getting points.
jhiggz - OK State is getting the bets because of their record on the year...They have a better record than OK does to this point. Looks better on paper.
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jhiggz - OK State is getting the bets because of their record on the year...They have a better record than OK does to this point. Looks better on paper.
-Vegas has been getting killed with these lines of unranked teams laying points to ranked road team (trend won't continue at this rate)
-Nova has a substantial advantage at the guard position
-Louisville is 1-3 vs. solid competition
-Villanova is 4-1 against solid competition
I'd like to refute a few of your "facts" or "angles" on this game. 1.) How can Nova be underrated with their current ranking in the country? They were picked to win the Big East which may be the best conference in the nation. 2.) Your Vegas angle doesn't make any sense. Each game is capped separately based on the merits of the two teams and the situation. Vegas doesn't collectively institute a policy where unranked home teams give points to ranked visitors. 3.) Saying Nova has a substantial advantage at guard is a reach. Louisville has 3 returning starters at that position and several strong bench players. I agree guard play is Nova's strength but in this case, Louisville can counteract that strength thus the current line.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
-90% of covers on Louisville
-Nova has treated me VERY well this year
-Nova in underrated (if possible)
-Louisville is vastly overrated
-Vegas has been getting killed with these lines of unranked teams laying points to ranked road team (trend won't continue at this rate)
-Nova has a substantial advantage at the guard position
-Louisville is 1-3 vs. solid competition
-Villanova is 4-1 against solid competition
I'd like to refute a few of your "facts" or "angles" on this game. 1.) How can Nova be underrated with their current ranking in the country? They were picked to win the Big East which may be the best conference in the nation. 2.) Your Vegas angle doesn't make any sense. Each game is capped separately based on the merits of the two teams and the situation. Vegas doesn't collectively institute a policy where unranked home teams give points to ranked visitors. 3.) Saying Nova has a substantial advantage at guard is a reach. Louisville has 3 returning starters at that position and several strong bench players. I agree guard play is Nova's strength but in this case, Louisville can counteract that strength thus the current line.
Sportsinsights.com has 66% of 5354 bets on Nova and 63% of 3943 on Ok St.
I think Nova is definitely a public play regardless of the posters on Covers... you have to think of how many Joe Pub's there are out there that know dick about what they are betting on and never visit a forum like Covers but are taking the #4 team in the country getting points.
Regardless, BOL
nova and ok st. are definitely the square plays but square plays almost half the time.
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Quote Originally Posted by teezeepicks:
Sportsinsights.com has 66% of 5354 bets on Nova and 63% of 3943 on Ok St.
I think Nova is definitely a public play regardless of the posters on Covers... you have to think of how many Joe Pub's there are out there that know dick about what they are betting on and never visit a forum like Covers but are taking the #4 team in the country getting points.
Regardless, BOL
nova and ok st. are definitely the square plays but square plays almost half the time.
nova and ok st. are definitely the square plays but square plays almost half the time.
I agree.. I don't mind playing square plays and I don't mind playing anti-public RLM games.. I cap the games myself and usually stick with my gut and research. Although I have been cold
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
nova and ok st. are definitely the square plays but square plays almost half the time.
I agree.. I don't mind playing square plays and I don't mind playing anti-public RLM games.. I cap the games myself and usually stick with my gut and research. Although I have been cold
Sad to say, but that is EXACTLY what covers is...the public
are there a few great cappers in here...of course...but for the most part covers is an exact representation of the betting public.
Public looks in the USA Today and sees that Villanova is ranked while they see Louisville is unranked. They then see a line and notice that the unranked team in a favorite and think it must be their lucky day. That is why this system is so successful.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
Sad to say, but that is EXACTLY what covers is...the public
are there a few great cappers in here...of course...but for the most part covers is an exact representation of the betting public.
Public looks in the USA Today and sees that Villanova is ranked while they see Louisville is unranked. They then see a line and notice that the unranked team in a favorite and think it must be their lucky day. That is why this system is so successful.
-Vegas has been getting killed with these lines of unranked teams laying points to ranked road team (trend won't continue at this rate)
-Nova has a substantial advantage at the guard position
-Louisville is 1-3 vs. solid competition
-Villanova is 4-1 against solid competition
Tressel--I really like your thread I think you often give good insight into games and/or shady lines. I do want to point out a couple of things though on this Nova game. Number 1. It seems to me like you are a trend bucker (guy who goes against the trend) very much like myself. However, all the stats you provided regarding this game would lead me to believe that you would take Lou in this spot being that lou has been 1-3 against solid comp and Nova is 4-1. The fact that you like Nova here is in essence against your own mentality (if I have you pegged correctly) Number 2. I believe you are right about the home unranked favorite against ranked teams trend and that a lot of the knowledgeable betting public makes these plays and has been making money off this. However if you faded this trend over the past week you'd be 3-8. And 1-2 including yesterday. (Maryland, Arizona covered RI did not). I feel this is a good spot for Louisville they actually do match up very well with Nova and I think they have an edge with Samuels, Swopshire and Terrence Jennings who is overdue for a big game this year. I dont like that this will put Lou at 4-0 in Big East but If I look ahead I like the prospects. Lou beats Nova here and enters top 25. Pitt loses to Uconn and falls out of top 25. Then lou travels to Pitt as a ranked team against unranked Home team and loses to Pitt....I like how that sounds.
GL with your plays tonight, look forward to your posts.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
-90% of covers on Louisville
-Nova has treated me VERY well this year
-Nova in underrated (if possible)
-Louisville is vastly overrated
-Vegas has been getting killed with these lines of unranked teams laying points to ranked road team (trend won't continue at this rate)
-Nova has a substantial advantage at the guard position
-Louisville is 1-3 vs. solid competition
-Villanova is 4-1 against solid competition
Tressel--I really like your thread I think you often give good insight into games and/or shady lines. I do want to point out a couple of things though on this Nova game. Number 1. It seems to me like you are a trend bucker (guy who goes against the trend) very much like myself. However, all the stats you provided regarding this game would lead me to believe that you would take Lou in this spot being that lou has been 1-3 against solid comp and Nova is 4-1. The fact that you like Nova here is in essence against your own mentality (if I have you pegged correctly) Number 2. I believe you are right about the home unranked favorite against ranked teams trend and that a lot of the knowledgeable betting public makes these plays and has been making money off this. However if you faded this trend over the past week you'd be 3-8. And 1-2 including yesterday. (Maryland, Arizona covered RI did not). I feel this is a good spot for Louisville they actually do match up very well with Nova and I think they have an edge with Samuels, Swopshire and Terrence Jennings who is overdue for a big game this year. I dont like that this will put Lou at 4-0 in Big East but If I look ahead I like the prospects. Lou beats Nova here and enters top 25. Pitt loses to Uconn and falls out of top 25. Then lou travels to Pitt as a ranked team against unranked Home team and loses to Pitt....I like how that sounds.
GL with your plays tonight, look forward to your posts.
im 61% on villanova on another site as well...i dont really put to much stock into these numbers but nova is definitely the public play tonight...you can tell yourself that you c 20 posts and that makes it the public play but in all reality the all the public joe sees the RANKED team catching points and they immediately think its a lock...thats why the unranked team laying points and covering trend keeps working...because you are kidding yourself if you think that vegas is losing money in these spots...they r raking it in and loving it.....whenever a ranked team is playing and unranked team...90% or more of the time the majority of the public is backing the ranked team without a doubt....now UNC has changed peoples perception of this around here bc of this trend but that is the only reason why you c those posts of people on louisville and thats the only reason.....take it for whats its worth but your kidding yourslef if you think vegas is losing money in these situations its actually quite the opposite
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im 61% on villanova on another site as well...i dont really put to much stock into these numbers but nova is definitely the public play tonight...you can tell yourself that you c 20 posts and that makes it the public play but in all reality the all the public joe sees the RANKED team catching points and they immediately think its a lock...thats why the unranked team laying points and covering trend keeps working...because you are kidding yourself if you think that vegas is losing money in these spots...they r raking it in and loving it.....whenever a ranked team is playing and unranked team...90% or more of the time the majority of the public is backing the ranked team without a doubt....now UNC has changed peoples perception of this around here bc of this trend but that is the only reason why you c those posts of people on louisville and thats the only reason.....take it for whats its worth but your kidding yourslef if you think vegas is losing money in these situations its actually quite the opposite
im SEEING 61% on villanova on another site as well...i dont really put to much stock into these numbers but nova is definitely the public play tonight...you can tell yourself that you c 20 posts and that makes it the public play but in all reality the all the public joe sees the RANKED team catching points and they immediately think its a lock...thats why the unranked team laying points and covering trend keeps working...because you are kidding yourself if you think that vegas is losing money in these spots...they r raking it in and loving it.....whenever a ranked team is playing and unranked team...90% or more of the time the majority of the public is backing the ranked team without a doubt....now UNC has changed peoples perception of this around here bc of this trend but that is the only reason why you c those posts of people on louisville and thats the only reason.....take it for whats its worth but your kidding yourslef if you think vegas is losing money in these situations its actually quite the opposite
this post is a big ramble and doesnt even sound like english in some parts.... i apologize for the rush but i hope you get my point
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Quote Originally Posted by gabs24:
im SEEING 61% on villanova on another site as well...i dont really put to much stock into these numbers but nova is definitely the public play tonight...you can tell yourself that you c 20 posts and that makes it the public play but in all reality the all the public joe sees the RANKED team catching points and they immediately think its a lock...thats why the unranked team laying points and covering trend keeps working...because you are kidding yourself if you think that vegas is losing money in these spots...they r raking it in and loving it.....whenever a ranked team is playing and unranked team...90% or more of the time the majority of the public is backing the ranked team without a doubt....now UNC has changed peoples perception of this around here bc of this trend but that is the only reason why you c those posts of people on louisville and thats the only reason.....take it for whats its worth but your kidding yourslef if you think vegas is losing money in these situations its actually quite the opposite
this post is a big ramble and doesnt even sound like english in some parts.... i apologize for the rush but i hope you get my point
I think this game can go either way but when big time program that are unranked play top 10 teams, they tend to play extremely well. With that being said, when smaller programs like Rhode Island get a top 25 team like saturday when they played temple, u have to cap the game alittle better and not just rely on the trend. Louisville will be ready to play tonite. Should win by 6 to 8 pts. Either way enjoy your threads. Keep up the good work
Easy on my Rhody squad. They played that game with a one armed leading scorer, shooting half his season percentages. Hope he's healthy when they meet again. It will be a whole different story. BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by thepigeoncoup33:
I think this game can go either way but when big time program that are unranked play top 10 teams, they tend to play extremely well. With that being said, when smaller programs like Rhode Island get a top 25 team like saturday when they played temple, u have to cap the game alittle better and not just rely on the trend. Louisville will be ready to play tonite. Should win by 6 to 8 pts. Either way enjoy your threads. Keep up the good work
Easy on my Rhody squad. They played that game with a one armed leading scorer, shooting half his season percentages. Hope he's healthy when they meet again. It will be a whole different story. BOL
You need to look again, because I read at least 20 posts picking Louisville, I have seen 3 people (excluding myself) picking Nova.
Why do people care so much about this? There's no way anything posted on a message board effects the outcome of a game. Do you think Patino had a solid game plan and then logged onto covers and said we are fucked all of covers is betting on us.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
You need to look again, because I read at least 20 posts picking Louisville, I have seen 3 people (excluding myself) picking Nova.
Why do people care so much about this? There's no way anything posted on a message board effects the outcome of a game. Do you think Patino had a solid game plan and then logged onto covers and said we are fucked all of covers is betting on us.
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