Posted:
#1
5-2 +2.8* yesterday
12-5 run
The Gophers were not Golden last night. The Buckeyes burnt me and Little Richard. All Big 10 Jordan Murphy only got 6 shots off for 7 points and 7 boards. Murphy has 51 career double doubles to tie Jim Brewer for the school record. Ohio St shut him down.
Minnesota was 0-13 from trey land.
Congrats to HC Chris Holtman for a good gameplan and rallying the troops after losing to Syracuse. The Buckeyes were playing without starting guard Luther Muhammad who separated his shoulder against the Orange. He was considered their best on ball defender. The Bucks played lockdown D without him.
8:00 tonight
?* Wisconsin - Rutgers under ? (Opened 125)
The 5-2 Rutgers Scarlet Knights visit the Kohl Center to take on the 7-1 Wisconsin Badgers in what figures to be a defensive struggle. Wiscy has the 7th best defensive efficiency and NJU has the 18th.
I think this game turns into a slow paced half court grinder. These two teams have a similar style, both relying on a tenacious DEFENSE. Each team is comfortable with a walk it up possession approach offensively. Wiscy is #350 (UVA #351) with 64.8 possessions/gm and RU #295 with 68 possessions/gm(As of last Thursday, I'm running out of time). Expect few fast break opportunities in this contest. Half-court execution will decide this game as these are two of the slower paced teams in the country.
Wiscy will run if it is there otherwise theyseldom shoot off the dribble without running their stuff. In fact, they rarely shoot off of the first pass unless Happ gets it in the low post. They are schooled to make at least 3 or 4 passes and swing the ball to the other side to move the defense before looking to shoot. They run a hybrid motion offense with back screens and down screens to free the shooter. This is a very patient team that controls the ball and burns the clock. They don't rush anything.They get high % looks deep into the shot clock and they can stroke it, shooting 48% from the floor, and 42% from 3. Trice is a hel! of a shooting guard hitting 58.3% from trey land, he comes into this game on a roll hitting 15 of 21 bombs in the last 3 games.
Seems like Ethan Happ (17.4ppg, 11.7 rpg) has been there for 6 years, this will be his 113th start for the Badgers. This dude can really handle the ball for a 6'11" post player. If he gets doubled down low he is a great passer. So opponents have to pick their poison. Let him go 1 on 1 or let him kick it to the open shooter.
The Badgers have not feasted on a bunch of cupcakes early like a lot of big programs have. They won at Xavier, beat Stanford and Oklahoma in a tourney before losing to highly ranked UVA in a tightly contested game. Beat a good NCSt team at home and then went on the road to knock off 15th ranked Iowa.
Rutgers is an improved team that comes into this game after losing at home to Sparty 78-67. It was a close 2 point game at half before Sparty eventually pulled away covering the 9. The Knights shot 37%, and 31% from 3 against the rugged Spartan D on their HOME floor. I expect about the same against this sticky Badger D on the ROAD. For the year RU is shooting 42%, 37% from 3. But ONLY 57% from the foul line. RU is the #251 team in offensive efficiency.
You match up these RU offensive numbers against the Wiscy D allowing opponents to only hit for 39% overall and just 28% behind the arc and you see why I believe Rutgers is going to have a hard time putting points on the scoreboard. Badgers only giving up 61 ppg.
The Knights are an impressive Defensive team, only giving up 59 ppg.
Holding opponents to 38% shooting overall and 31% from 3. One of the BIG reasons Rutgers is good defensively is that they are the 2nd tallest team in the country. They net out as the #18 Defense.
I see the Wiscy D matching up well against Rutgers leading scorer Eugene Omuruyi (15 ppg) and containing triggerman Geo Baker (14 ppg). Geo is their playmaker and the rock is in his hand a lot. If he has a bad night the Knights are going to be in for a long night. When he got in foul trouble last game vs Sparty is when Mich St took control of the game.
Rutgers is still a young team and probably going to struggle on the Big 10 road. They have done well against out of conference teams but Conference games are a different beast.
Wiscy is 7-3 under last 10 vs teams .600 or above (competitive games)
Wiscy is 4-0 under last 4 vs Big 10
Wiscy is 7-0 ats last 7 vs Big 10
Rutgers is 12-5 under vs teams .600 or above
Rutgers 4-1 under last 5 games
Revenge game for the Badgers. They lost to Rutgers 64-60 last year.
Just think this is going to be a physical grinder of a game played at a very slow pace. Even fewer possessions than they have been averaging since both teams are going to mirror each other. Points being hard to come by.
Must note that Wisconsin is #7 in defensive efficiency & #17 in offensive efficiency. The only other teams in the top 17 in both categories are Duke, Kansas, Auburn, and Tennessee.
Not many games to select from on the menu tonight. I think this total is going to get pushed up some due to this. Not many willing to go under on a # this low. Will wait to see if the number rises.
Bolta
If you can't close you can't cover.
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