Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 56-39, +80.95
March Leans: 33-34
I like Illinois State tonight, but there is just one bright glaring thing that I just can’t seem to wrap my head around and this deals with travel. Under Tim Jankovich, Illinois State has only gone West one time. Yup, one time. In five years, just once. In 167 total ball games, just one time has the game come in the Pacific time zone. Coincidentally, that one game happened at the start of this year in a 55-47 loss to snail Fresno State. Small sample size, but definitely concerning. They flew out Saturday morning, so they basically have two days to adjust I would think, but I’m avoiding the Redbirds, and pointing to the total for a few reasons. First, I just need to get past the travel issue. Illinois State’s a pretty young team. As they travelled out West to start the year against a snail, they failed miserably. To put that in perspective, they were also without two key ingredients to the team in Brown (he only played 8 minutes), and Allen (he joined the team mid-way through the season). Since Allen has come on board, this team has added an additional scorer to the mix, and they have increased the speed that they play at as well. Once they lost the final to Creighton in the MVC title game and were brought into the NIT field, two things were pretty obvious. One, Illinois State and Jankovich have nothing to lose and they’re going to go up and down with whomever wants to run with them, and two, the really good defense that this team started out the year with has been non-existent since the focal point moved to the offensive side of the ball. As for the offense, well, they’re going to launch three’s if you’ve seen them play. They shot above 70% the other night at Ole Miss for a good portion of the game, so I’m expecting a bit coming back to the mean here, but it’s more of a quantity over quality type team from beyond the arc. Stanford’s defense in the half court will allow it, so nothing of concern there. If you look at Jankovich quite a bit over the years, he’s pretty consistent with what he wants to do against bigger teams and that’s the fact he wants them to hit outside shots. They sag a tremendous amount, and force teams to beat them with the jump shot. With Stanford, you have a team who has built itself and its pace of the ballgame around a freshman Chasson Randle, who coincidentally is also from Illinois. They look to push at every possible opportunity, and while they don’t shoot the 3 as much as ISU does, they shoot it just as good and it’s a big part of their offense. So in terms of scheme, size in the paint cross each other out, and I basically have two teams who like to move the ball in the half court, and those shots will be open for both teams tonight. I’m OK if this game goes to the half-court. But I don’t think it will be. Stanford’s been pretty consistent with how it plays this year. They’ve been consistently an up and down team as of late except the match-ups against the Utah’s, USC’s, and Arizona State’s of the world. Their most previous game, they took Cleveland State up and over 70 possession (actually hit 76 total possessions), and Cleveland State played just two games over 70 all year (and they both came the first week of the season). Illinois State just played an OT game to 75 possessions in a game that hit 189 total points. This one should be fast, and even if it isn’t, I still think both will have excellent opportunities to score in the half court. On a side note, there hasn’t been much defense played in these NIT/CBI/CIT games. I don’t have time to research it, but while the NCAA tournament was like 11 – 30 or something like that in regards to the unders – overs, I think these other postseason tournaments hold some more value to the over (for proof check out the Oregon/Iowa game last night which was the highest scoring game of the year). All in all, I think this total is set a bit low b/c these defenses have the ability when they want to, to shut other teams down who focus on other aspects of the game, whereas this match-up and what each team wants to do sort of clash heads in a good way. I rode the Illinois State unders through the MVC tournament with success (aside from the OT game), but now I’m on the other side of the fence. The focal point has switched to the offense and how to produce, and when that happens, the defense takes a hit, while the offense still has the ability to put up points, and assuming this is an up and down game, this one should feature some points. The last thing I focus on within the game itself is this: Both teams come in having favorable boosts to the offense in this one. Illinois State comes in off an Ole Miss team that played man-to-man for 68 of the 75 possessions, a similar sagging man-to-man that Stanford employs. Stanford comes in having played a tough pressure defense, and face off against a defense that pressures nowhere near what Cleveland State exhibits on the perimeter. Concern? Yes, sentence #1 displays my only concern, but again, even if ISU does show some weary signs of the travel, I still think the possession count in this one extends into a # that holds value regardless.
5* Illinois State/Stanford Over 134.5
Thanks again for your insightful writeups and all the work you put into them. 
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