Mountain West: Week 1

Starting off with tiny units as all I have done really is read through the Blue Ribbon so far.  Figure having a little action will keep me watching closely.  I follow the Mountain West conference pretty closely.  My thought was maybe to flat play every game in the conference this year, hope to hit the magic 55% or better, make some profit and some money.  Over the past week I have been looking through these games.  Sucks that all these lines, literally all of them, have moved away from me.

MW week 1

Utah St +4.5 @ UC Irvine, KP at -5

Utah St.  3 starters return compared to 1 for UC Irvine.  Irvine may end up better team, but think Utah St, with more chemistry, can hold their own, Love 7, likely around 5.

San Diego +19.5@ San Diego St, KP -19

Aztecs on revenge for bad loss last year.  SD with 2 returners from 9-21 season.  Aztecs actually have very very good guards this year, and should be able to score.  Frontcourt is relatively new, but some large bodies.  Aztecs have depth, talent edge, no doubt.  And seemingly motivation.  Hard to lay these kinds of points first game.  Should a 1h -8 or less show up, I would consider it.  Conversely, if SD is +21, I would consider that. Missed the 21, damn.

New Mexico State @ Colorado St., KP has it at -3 (Sunday game)

CSU is well coached, but only has 1 returner off a team that went 18-16 last year.  NM st, on the other hand, has 4 returners, and despite losing their good coach to UNLV, they promoted a 9 year assistant so the transition should be smooth.  Looks like a live dog.

Week 1, 2nd game

SDst +11@ Gonzaga, KP -6

Don’t understand the line move, save Aztecs getting to an 18 pt lead and then cruising to an ATS loss.  They look the same, but with better shooting this year.  Zags destroyed Utah Valley from the tip on.  Blue Ribbon has them 14.  KP 28th.  Look loaded and deep, but a lot of new faces.  If SD st can slow the game down a bit, as they do, I see them hanging around in this one.  Kinda pissed at the midnight tip as I’ll be long asleep.

Loyola Marymount @ Nevada-10, KP -9, opens at 8, bet to 10

Two teams Blue Ribbon is high on improving this year.  Nevada one more returning starter.  LYM off a win against something called Vanguard, but it was pretty sloppy despite the score.  Lots of turnovers and offensive boards allowed (vanguard went 3-24 from behind the arc).  Nevada got rolled by St. Mary’s in a game I watched some of before falling asleep.  Few impressions except St. Marys was pretty good.  Nevada off a loss, coming home, Loyola off easy, sloppy win.  Seems likely that Nevada had the better days of practice.  Faded them last time out, like em a little this time.

Wyoming @ Montana-6, KP -5, opened -4.5, now -5.5

Wyoming returns 4 starters, but they aren’t that good, and they lose PG Adams, who was there only real player last year.  Blue ribbon down on them as well.  Only shooting saved them from a loss to Western as they only managed +1 Offensive board/turnover.  Montana loses a big cog, but recruited well according to Blue ribbon.  WY off an easy win, Montana hung with USC for a while, before losing SU ATS.  Montana returns 4.  Think they get the win and cover at home.

Bonus Play:

Princeton +4 @ BYU

Always take a look at BYU home games - they have been very good to me.  But this is such a contrast - BYU super inexperienced, Princeton, 1 win away from tourney last year, returns all 5 and 7 players are seniors.  Tough to pass up BYU at such a small number at home, against an IVY school, but you have to like the experience difference here.