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#1
Central Florida -2
Central Florida hosts Colorado in its second ever NIT appearance. This seems to be a big deal for the school and I expect the team to be motivated. This isn't a Cal- or a Syracuse-like program who is disappointed in higher aspirations. I don't like the spot or the matchup for Colorado here. One thing is the long break, Colorado hasn't played since last Thursday. As we saw with Wake last night, the extended break, I think, rather affects teams who rely on sharp shooting and crisp offense. With 4+ days of rest Colorado is 1-5 ATS, with the cover coming at home in altitude against Stanford. Stanford is a team that they matched up exceptionally well against, as they also handled them in Palo Alto. UCF presents a much more difficult matchup, starting with their defense. UCF's defense is 16th in efficiency, second in opposing FG %, they rebound better, they don't give up much on the perimeter. UCF is not a team that Colorado can score much against, the only elite defense that Colorado has faced was California, against whom they scored only 54 points at home in a victory against a team on the second leg of its altitude trip, after getting destroyed by Utah, and was exhausted, and against whom they scored 66 points in a 77-66 road loss, and Arizona, against whom they scored 27 points in the first half, finishing with an inflated 73 points in a game they never had a chance in. Whenever the pace of the game is faster, they typically can't play defense, giving up 78 points at home to Oregon State and 91 to Washington State including overtime. With the 113th best defensive efficiency, I don't think they can contain UCF enough, who could manage 70+ against defenses around the skill level of Colorado, Tulsa and Houston. I expect Matt Williams to cause match-up problems for Colorado. Like Kuzma, he is a taller man who can drive but also knock down threes. I saw this versatility to allow Kuzma to wreak havoc in Boulder and be the deciding factor on offense. Williams had a tough game against SMU, going only 1/6 from three. Williams usually bounces back strong the next game. For example, after scoring 3 against Cincy, he was the team's MVP with 20 points at South Florida. I expect a 20 point effort from him tonight. I think UCF's defense will be too much for a Colorado club that has not proven able to succeed against the defensively elite. I think Colorado's defense will struggle against Williams and not do enough to keep its team in this game. I like a motivated UCF to take care of Colorado at home by 5+ I would grab this spread while it's still hot
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