My Terps in the BB&T Classic v. Temple

4-0 in Terp games this year

Terps picked up a nice win at Penn St earlier in the week.  Not that Penn St. is good but that was a true road test and I think we passed with flying colors.  Under and Terps -1 was golden.  The boys did alot of what I thought with JWill completely owning the paint as expected.  Again, the Terps are deeper this season even with the loss of two very good and one great player from last season.  There are a legitimate 8-9 players that could see significant time this season.

Today the Terps travel less than ten miles down to the Verizon Center to play Temple.  I believe the RPI computers consider this "semi-home" for ranking purposes and that's what it is, the Terps ought to have a decent crowd due to the location.  This used to be a true tournament, one the Terps have always struggled in, but now it is just a one day deal where there is no winner.  Still gives us a solid OOC opponent for the resume.  Only line I have seen so far is the Terps -4.5 but no total so I'll discuss a side and maybe come back later when a total is put up.

Terps have shown they like to run but that playing half court doesn't bother too much either.  As the new guys get more comfortable with the Flex and Gary's sets, this team will get even better in the halfcourt.  The team is very comfortable running already just based on the athleticism of the guards (especially PeShon and Stogs) and the big men who can get up and down too.

Temple's foundation has been built on defense since the Cheney days.  I have not seen them play yet this season so I am unsure whether they still play that ugly zone but whatever they play, it's keeping the opponent's FG% low as always.  Fernandez and Moore are their guards with Fernandez being their floor leader.  What's interesting to me is that neither guard has very good assist numbers which tells me that this team likely is not sharing the ball real well so far this season.  I think they might struggle even more today if they can't share the ball against the sisters of the poor they have played thus far, it won't come eas against a Terp team that plays good defense.  Plus, the Terps have SEVEN very servicable, athletic guards so look for Gary to try and run these two guys down with depth in the backcourt.  I just don't see this being a big area of advantage for Temple.

Frontcourt features JWill for the Terps.  He is an emerging star and averages a double double it seems with ease.  If the guy could shoot FT's better, he'd likely average more like 20 ppg.  He'll do well on the glass and if Gregory can continue his strong play of the last four games, I don't think there is any advantage for Temple here either.  Temple does have Allen and Randle who have decent rebounding numbers so they'll likely be tougher on the glass than the last few Terp opponents.  I think ugly will be the theme of the day.  It's clear that Temple likes to play low scoring messes and the Penn St game shows that the Terps can be dominant in that style of game also.  Plus add in the rims at Verizon that neither team has played on along with the vast chasms that come with an NBA arena half full and I think you have a recipe for lower scoring.

I think the only way the Terps don't cover is if JWill, not anyone else but JWill gets into foul trouble.  The beauty of this team in the backcourt is that Gary has shown he is going to go against his MO of not playing freshmen much so PeShon and Stogs will see alot of time.  I just don't see how Temple can win this if they don't go at JWill so he is sitting alot.  If he plays his normal minutes, he'll have 15+/11+ and the Terps win by 8+.

One other note is Tucker for the Terps.  He is a match-up NIGHTMARE for teams.  He's a 6'6", very athletic, long guard.  Teams don't typically have an answer for his body and style so look for him to give Temple big problems.  If one of the Temple guards gets hot, Tucker will be moved to him.  But on the offensive end, the only thing that will stop him is himself.  He's a very streaky shooter but watch out of he gets hot (ask UNC the last two years).

Motivation-wise, the Terps need as many OOC wins as they can get becuase they lost in a tight game to Pitt and Illini so they cannot afford any slip-ups against Temple, PSU and Temple later in the season.  Temple is a high-profile enough name and obviousl finding a way to beat Nova would be great.

Oh, BIG advnatage on the coaching here too.

 

Play is Terps -4.5......more on the total when it comes out.

 

Total is 121.......I gotta be honest, that is really fucking low.  I know that Temple likes ugly and I know I laid out the reasons why shooting could be poor at Verizon but I have to go over here.  That's just too low I think as I see the Terps getting into the high 60's maybe 70+ on their own.

 

Play over 121

Post above should have said "Temple, PSU and VILLANOVA later in the season."

on Maryland as well...make it 5-0 on terps games

BOL ACC!!!

I like Temple, and I follow MD as well (brother and fater are alumni)  temple will exploit inside as Jordan Williams cant do it all.

Purdue-

This is tooting anyone's horn but can you imagine how tough we'd be as a group if we had someone who knew each CBB team like you know Purdue, LuDawg knows ECU, I know the Terps, etc.?  Is it BlakeJeff that does Temple also?  Anyway, I had suggested during the start of the NCAA tournament a couple of years ago that we all focus on one conference and share info and perhaps we should look at all of that again because once you get very familar with a team, you do get a good feel for which way plays should go.

 

I respectfully don't see it.  They have no one the caliber of JWill and Dino Gregory is the caliber of their two frontcourt guys.  So where is the advantage for them?  That fails to acocunt for the 2-3 guys the Terps can send out to contribute here and there on the glass and with rebounding (Padgett and Weijs).

I'm on Maryland too. If Temple was playing better, I wouldn't worry about this game but they are playing like crap. The big problem for Maryland will be if guys like Wyatt and Randall are scoring and Lavoy Allen grew some balls.

GL acc.

Total up to 126

I have watched a couple of the Terps games this year. 

Jordan Williams has the potential to be a great player, but he needs to stay out of foul trouble.  The Freshman Kid Stoglin is a gunner. He is not shy about taking shots rathing than passing the ball. haha

I believe the Terps are good enough to finish as high as 3rd in the ACC.  

BOL bro...

I wanted to play your boys SU, but teased them w/ Tex

GL today man

I am 4-0 this year on Ole Miss plays, and 3-1 on MS State plays.  Last year, I was 72% on Ole Miss plays, and 69% on MS State plays.  

Other than these two, I tail a few of you guys here.  I don't know much about CBB, except for these two teams where I have coaches that are personal friends, and players on the Ole Miss team that I am close to.  I usually have a good feel of the matchups, as well as the inner workings of the teams. 

Hopefully, I won't jinx myself with this, but I will post regarding these two going forward. 

Thanks olemiss, that would be helpful.

That would be good Ole Miss. 

accven, do you still like the total over 126?
I just locked in 121 but just trying to get a feel how confident you are in the pick

Well, for starters, here goes:

Both of these plays will be 12/11 plays. 

MS State has been a DD home favorite four times this year.  They are 0-4 against the number, losing one outright, and OT on another. Until Sidney and Bost return, this is simply a bad basketball team.  I look for them to open as a 12-13 pt favorite againts ETSU on the 11th.  I will play this at anything above 10. 

Ole Miss on the other hand, goes on the road for only the 2nd time against UALR.  The first road trip was to Miami, and although the final score was only 13 point difference, Ole Miss was never in the game.  UALR has some pretty good athletes, and I look for them to play hard and keep this game close.  I am expecting a number here in the 10-12 range, and I will be taking UALR @ anything in DD's. 

my book has -6...would u still play it?

Line opened up at 127

Line opened at 121

https://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/matchups/g6_summary_152.html

I still would play it at 126.  I'd also still play the Terps to -6.  I think it's at -5.5 right now

wow ,,, I was shopping around in the casinos ,,, none opened the line nearly close to 121 ,,, do you use a local?

 

thanks and best of luck to you