NCAA - BUYING POINTS IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT THUS FAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

\/------Overall FINAL Regular Season of NCAA Basketball Stats------\/

Saturday, January 19th, 2013 through Sunday, March 17, 2013

58 days
1,990 games
3,980 sides
40 original pushes
472 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
96 (2.41%) loses to pushes
39 (0.98%) pushes to wins
135 (3.39%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
89 (2.24%) pushes
135 (3.39%) wins
224 (5.63%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
61 (1.53%) pushes
224 (5.63%) wins
285 (7.16%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
85 (2.14%) pushes
285 (7.16%) wins
370 (9.30%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
70 (1.76%) pushes
370 (9.30%)wins
440 (11.06%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
71 (1.78%) pushes
440 (11.05%) wins
511 (12.84%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

You need to go into holydiver thread and educate him. 

If he is interested in the info he will click on this thread.  I honestly am not here to Preach and belittle people who DO buy points,...I just put it out there for people who like to MAKE money.  I'm not going to give you POYs, POMs, POWs, or PODs...knowing that buying points is a waste of money is up to the people who gamble.

Not only is it a waste of money buying points in any form of basketball, but it ALSO SHOWS HOW WEAK OF A PLAY/BET IT IS....:

IF YOU ARE THAT UNSURE OF A PLAY/BET AND YOU THINK THAT THE GAME WILL BE THAT CLOSE TO THE ORIGINAL SPREAD THAT YOU ARE BUYING POINTS....WHY ARE YOU EVEN BETTING ON THE GAME?!?!?!?

THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While point-buying in basketball is a waste of time, I've done statistical data on buying 1/2 point around and on spreads of 3 or 7 in the LAST 7 YEARS OF REGULAR SEASON NFL GAMES that has proven to be BENEFICIAL to a bankroll and indeed is advantageous.

You can find the NFL data here is anybody is interested and would like to bump it:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101556424

I'm getting the NCAA Tournament data ready right now and will post soon.

Will you look into selling points and see what the value would be. If there is no value buying, there inherently has to be value in selling (up to 3 points)

Pho-20...you make me hungry every time I see your avatar pic...mmmmmm

TRAIN69...we've gone over this before, you are welcome to look into it if you would like to know, but saying that there is no value in Buying Points and then saying that...."inherently"....there would be no value in Selling Points is a bad assumption when technically Selling Points would be an INVERSE of the statistical data of Buying....so a quick-draw hypothesis would be that Selling Points would HAVE VALUE if Buying Points does NOT.

Thats what I said. If buying is bad, selling HAS to be good.....

It also depends on the juice.

For most people, they use offshore sites and pay normal vig but if you have a local and are a regular degenerate like me vigs are discounted.

My guy is 2% and an additional 5% for each 1/2 pt. Max buy of only 1 pt. (2%, 7%, 12%).

Buying 1 pt with vig of 30% is rough.

Paying 12% is well worth it as it saved me many times especially last years tourney.

 

I apologize, yes, I did read you wrong...sorry Train, thought you said no value and no value...and as I've said before about Selling is that it depends on what they Sell the points for.  Usually books don't Sell for As Much as they allow buying points.

LuckyThanSmart...yeh, obviously it depends on what you are buying the points for...my stats are based on 10 cents per 1/2 point and then they get more expensive as you buy more.

If you have a local that only charges 12% for the 1 point, it probably is worth it...I'm really not up to the task of running the calculations on it now, but pretty sure only 12% on 1 point is worth it.

People have brought up that "they only pick the games that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL. A few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5 points as compared to any other amount.  The bottom line is that the amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes. A few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3 points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near being profitable. A few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.  Though the stats DID show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6 or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS. ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED. DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY. THANK YOU

\/------ 52 NCAA Tournament Games of Rd 1-3 ------\/

Tuesday, March 19th, 2013 through Sunday, March 24th, 2013

52 games
104 sides
0 original pushes
9 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
3 (2.88%) loses to pushes
0 (0.00%) pushes to wins
3 (2.88%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
1 (0.96%) pushes
3 (2.88%) wins
4 (3.85%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
1 (0.96%) pushes
4 (3.85%) wins
5 (4.81%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
3 (2.88%) pushes
5 (4.81%) wins
8 (7.69%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
1 (0.96%) pushes
8 (7.69%)wins
9 (8.65%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
0 (0.00%) pushes
9 (8.65%) wins
9 (8.65%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

Thanks for the post bk1374

#1 As a few of us have mentioned in a few posts above, it obviously depends on THE ODDS and I've mentioned how books usually don't Sell at the same rate of Buying. Buying on average in books is 10 cents per 1/2 point and many times much higher than 10 cents as you buy more and more points while I've seen points sold for 3-7 cents per 1/2 point sold.

What I meant by buying and selling being "inverse" was the ODDS and PROBABILITIES.  What the books DO have control of is the JUICE and RATE at which they allow selling and buying of points.

#2 The BIGGEST difference between Buying and Selling is that when you BUY points...you are NOT CONFIDENT in the play that you are BUYING POINTS!  And if you are NOT CONFIDENT...IT IS A WEAK PLAY!

If you are SELLING POINTS, you are CONFIDENT enough to SELL POINTS and lower the odds of winning while raising your profit on a win.

Buying Points = WEAK Play
Selling Points = Strong Play

#3 Yes, there are no "key numbers" like in football as I've shown in older threads of point-buying in basketball.  The increments of points in basketball are LINEAR and come as 1, 2, or 3 points.  Football on the other hand are 3 and 7...
 
While in basketball, buying points is a waste of money and more of a "buying peace of mind" type of buy, buying points in football around or on 3 and 7 IS ADVANTAGEOUS.

Cut and paste or go to the NFL Forum on covers here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101556424

#4 10% juice on an original spread is NOT that difficult to make a profit.  You only have to win over 52.5% to make up for the juice.  Win 53 out of 100 straight bets at the same of money risked and you have made a profit.

Now,...If you are smart and shop around or use a book like 5 Dimes that has "reduced juice" of straight bets, it makes it even easier to profit.

5 Dimes has "nickle" bets of -105 for straight bets.

#5 I wasn't trying to disagree or say you were wrong or anything...Just spelling out MY thoughts.

I appreciate when people post their ideas, thoughts, opinions, stats, etc.

All opinions, comments, ideas, etc are welcomed.

So far, the odds of point-buying helping a bankroll have been LOWER than the average of the previous 58 days and 1,990 games. Also there were no pushes on the original spreads, which doesn't help people who buy points.

Best of Luck