NCAA MONDAY Too-good-to-be-true LINE

Question

yesterday was a tight board, the only true candidate for TGTBT was Wisconsin who was never covering 12. I expect today to be a similar board, a couple higher profile games and a few middling conferences. With no football to compete with today, better believe these lines are tight today.

Early candidates for TGTBT:

Mizz +12

This seems like a nice chunk of points for a quality Mizz team. this line reminds me a bit of the Kansas/Baylor game last week where it just seemed that a good Bay team was simple catching too many points. I think this might leave a lasting affect on bettors, thinking Kansas will have a tough time covering big spreads versus good teams at home. But Mizz is hardly road tested and this is a rivarly game so dont expect Kansas to look ahead to KSU bc this game means something too them. No one likes to lay DD so i dont expect a ton of Kansas action compared to the Mizz backers. Covers seems to be on Mizz early, although i have def seen both sides of the fence. Another problem i have with Kansas here is there is a history of them beating Mizz at home, covering this number easy so ppl may bank on Kan just bc of that. either way, its early and im looking at them. THE CANDIDATE: KANSAS -12

St Joes -7.5

This seems SO EASY to take the better team here with tons of history beating a lowly Penn squad year after year. Penn is 1-12 and just came off taking a beating from in-state "rivals" LaSalle and Temple. They are 0-5 at home, play in the shitty Ivy league, have zero hopes for post season .. why would they show up for this game? Let's look at the other side however ... St Joes def on a down year at 7-11. they havent won a road game all year 0-7. The problem is those road games are against good competition (Minn, Sienna, URI, St Bonnie, Temple, Rider, Cornell) ... I think bettors will dismiss St Joe being a bad road team bc of this. But they are coming off an emotional A-10 win over Dayton on Sat at home and Penn has been sitting around for a week waiting for this game. I say they catch Joes sleeping and 7.5 is gonna be alot to cover. 2 shitty teams, take the points, esp at home. THE CANDIDATE: PENN +7.5

thats about it for this shitty board. at first it was looking like alot of So Ill love out there and WKy was looking nice but i have a feeling that line is right on and will come down near the spread. the Syr/Gtown game is the biggie today so there will be both sides of the fence betting that one and these teams know each other so anything goes.

Special_K · Answer

yesterday was a tight board, the only true candidate for TGTBT was Wisconsin who was never covering 12. I expect today to be a similar board, a couple higher profile games and a few middling conferences. With no football to compete with today, better believe these lines are tight today.

Early candidates for TGTBT:

Mizz +12

This seems like a nice chunk of points for a quality Mizz team. this line reminds me a bit of the Kansas/Baylor game last week where it just seemed that a good Bay team was simple catching too many points. I think this might leave a lasting affect on bettors, thinking Kansas will have a tough time covering big spreads versus good teams at home. But Mizz is hardly road tested and this is a rivarly game so dont expect Kansas to look ahead to KSU bc this game means something too them. No one likes to lay DD so i dont expect a ton of Kansas action compared to the Mizz backers. Covers seems to be on Mizz early, although i have def seen both sides of the fence. Another problem i have with Kansas here is there is a history of them beating Mizz at home, covering this number easy so ppl may bank on Kan just bc of that. either way, its early and im looking at them. THE CANDIDATE: KANSAS -12

St Joes -7.5

This seems SO EASY to take the better team here with tons of history beating a lowly Penn squad year after year. Penn is 1-12 and just came off taking a beating from in-state "rivals" LaSalle and Temple. They are 0-5 at home, play in the shitty Ivy league, have zero hopes for post season .. why would they show up for this game? Let's look at the other side however ... St Joes def on a down year at 7-11. they havent won a road game all year 0-7. The problem is those road games are against good competition (Minn, Sienna, URI, St Bonnie, Temple, Rider, Cornell) ... I think bettors will dismiss St Joe being a bad road team bc of this. But they are coming off an emotional A-10 win over Dayton on Sat at home and Penn has been sitting around for a week waiting for this game. I say they catch Joes sleeping and 7.5 is gonna be alot to cover. 2 shitty teams, take the points, esp at home. THE CANDIDATE: PENN +7.5

thats about it for this shitty board. at first it was looking like alot of So Ill love out there and WKy was looking nice but i have a feeling that line is right on and will come down near the spread. the Syr/Gtown game is the biggie today so there will be both sides of the fence betting that one and these teams know each other so anything goes.

HotRoute · Answer

Agreed K...although it would be tough for me to back Penn

theCOBfather · Answer

GL

SouthJerseyStix · Answer

Yes Penn is the home team tonite @ The Palestra but St Joe&#x27;s plays some home games there this year and they played ALL their home games there last year while the Fieldhouse was being renovated so not a true road game especially since there will be plenty of Hawks fans in the house...Penn is horrible plaese don&#x27;t put your $$ on a team like this, either bet Joe&#x27;s or don&#x27;t bet it at all...GL

volstud50 · Answer

SK - Good stuff

BHouse · Answer

I think alot of people will be on College of Charleston &#x2B;6 as well.  They have been on a good run as of late (covering their last 8), but I like W. Carolina tonight.  See my thread for the write-up. BOL

jasonwhitesknee · Answer

the action on ku game is split.  &#xD;&#xA;st joe-7.5 is getting 80% action but the books don&#x27;t like it because it opened @ 6.5.  my guess is that both lines are about right.

Special_K · Answer

something is definately going on with that St Joe-Penn game ... line is down to -5 everywhere. absolutely screaming to take Penn. looks like we have an early leader here. is there an injury reported? how can the public's largest % play move 2.5 pts w/o provocation? if anyone knows something please share.

as for KU-Mizz, yes it seems the public might be split on this one. i just think this line is too high and normally would flinch at taking a good dog in a rivarly game. Thats why i think KU is the play here, just a weird line. shouldnt this be more around 8-10?

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;especially now .. you think the books moved this down to 5 to scare ppl off St Joe? maybe joes rolls here and they are playing possum??

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;  leaning towards not at all ... another terrible board today

BHouse · Answer

Wow, what is going on with the ST Joes - Penn line?  I locked it in early bc I thought it would rise.  Not looking so good now...

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;this one looks good too as it seems the pub is slamming the more known charleston team yet the line is moving towards WCar. WCaf is 10-0 at home but this will be a battle as 2 of the best teams in this conf. i love going aginst teams that have covered many times in a row, this case Charleston 8x in a row. the books adjust the lines accoringly throughout the year, there cant be much value left right now in Charleston ... WCar has lost ATS 5 out of their last 6 ... WCar seems like the smart play here, revengage factored in too (lost both meetings last yr)

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;yea i dont understand it. very drastic and very early in the day too. man, penn is so shitty though. i honestly feel that Joes will cover this and the books made a bold move to deter more Joes money. i bet they roped alot of ppl in to Penn moving that line bc ppl will think something is up. dont underestimate reverse line movement on such a small card!!!!

sundaydogplayer · Answer

why is wofford a 14.5 point fav...smells like  blowout

ThaVampire · Answer

nice breakdown bro and best of luck .. im liking kansas for that reason .. im thinking everyone will jump mizzou for the same reason they jumped baylor (i had baylor) but i think baylor is a better team and kansas wont let mizzou stay close in this one like they did baylor.. maybe for the first half and then pull away in the second ..kansas is way too talented especially with the way sherron collins is playing .. if they get the big man aldrich into the game him and morris are a force up front .. and brady morningstar is always good for a few key three balls in the game .. so im feeling kansas here definetly

from_downtown · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Special_K] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;this one looks good too as it seems the pub is slamming the more known charleston team yet the line is moving towards WCar. WCaf is 10-0 at home but this will be a battle as 2 of the best teams in this conf. i love going aginst teams that have covered many times in a row, this case Charleston 8x in a row. the books adjust the lines accoringly throughout the year, there cant be much value left right now in Charleston ... WCar has lost ATS 5 out of their last 6 ... WCar seems like the smart play here, revengage factored in too (lost both meetings last yr)&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Against ya on this as of now.  I can see C of C making this a close game tonight.  Yes, I agree they are on a great run that will surely snap.... but I see WCU with their first loss at home tonight.  BOL to ya, St. Joes line seems too good to be true......

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;actually a nice spot here for Wofford ... they are probably the best team in their conf even though they just lost a close one Charlotte on the road (lotta Wofford steam in that game if i remember). This line makes no sense as Chatt seems to be decent enough to keep within that number ... ill say that might be a very nice candidate you got yourself there.

Special_K · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; yep, this one is shaping out to be the best play TBTBT for me today. I cant stand what im seeing in Penn-St Joe and the other lowly conferences make me nervous. Something reminds me a bit of the Duke-Wake line last week where wake was catching a ton of pts on the road but were never going to cover it. ppl were all over wake too. they will be over mizz to a lesser extent but i feel the book likes where they set their line. &#xD;&#xA;the only counter arguement i have for this line being where it is would be the recent history of Mizz @ Kan who has pretty much blown out mizz 3 out of 4 yrs there. But ppl will directly compare this game to Baylor, who youre right is def better than Mizz, and will gladly take those pts. mizz is not baylor, and not road tested IMO. &#xD;&#xA;gluck

Special_K · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by from_downtown] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Against ya on this as of now.  I can see C of C making this a close game tonight.  Yes, I agree they are on a great run that will surely snap.... but I see WCU with their first loss at home tonight.  BOL to ya, St. Joes line seems too good to be true...... &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; goodluck, i wont be touching that game. one play a day will keep the bookie away and my one play prob wont be that one. i simply have little exposure to that conf and small boards = tight lines, esp in those games.

montreal44 · Answer

i feel charlston shows up again tonight and covers this #, then thursday at davidson they will be in prime letdown form, after 2 huge games.&#xD;&#xA;just my opinion, good luck with all your plays

Special_K · Answer

im seeing alot of Cuse out there yet that line is sticking right around 5.5. i def would instictively play Cuse here but they are 12-4 ATS and that shit always evens out and i dont like that the world is all over the orangemen. Gtown seems like smart play here, i think mostly bc these teams know each other well and Gtown should actually match up against the zone well. they arent as deep though, that worries me if Cuse gets them to run a bit. I couldnt bring myself to go against Cuse so ill just be watching this one.

Special_K · Answer

and that Penn St Joes line movement is wild. very interested to see how this one pans out. Im staying away, i dont like when the books play games.

BHouse · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I agree with your analysis, with one exception.  Don&#x27;t be worried about GTown getting into a transition game with Cuse.  GTown loves to run this year, and their players are very well conditioned.  The thin bench worries me if the starters get into foul trouble.  I have a detailed breakdown thread of the game if you are interested.&#xD;&#xA;Best of luck, and thanks for maintaining the thread and analyzing the lines.

NCAA MONDAY Too-good-to-be-true LINE

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