No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Game Info: 6:50 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Texas A&M +1.5 (-112) | Nebraska -1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: TAMU (-102) | NEB (-118)
Total: 146.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)
The Aggies got hot late in the year to secure a second consecutive at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Before falling to Florida 95–90 in the SEC Tournament semifinals, Texas A&M had won five straight, including a 97–87 upset against Kentucky in Nashville. The Cornhuskers are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade after finishing with their second-best record in program history. Nebraska has won seven of nine heading into March Madness, and one of those losses was to eventual Big Ten Tournament champion Illinois in the semifinals.
Buzz Williams’s Aggies are not an especially efficient offensive unit. They are among 14 DI teams that shoot worse than 40% from the field (amazingly, two other sub-40% teams are also in the tournament: No. 15 Saint Peter’s and No. 16 Wagner). Texas A&M’s leading scorer Wade Taylor IV (18.9 ppg) is a volume shooter who scored 82 points across three SEC Tournament games, but he also only connects on 36.9% of his attempts. The Aggies are also a dismal three-point shooting team (28.4%) and free throw shooting (70.9%) is a weakness as well.
So how does a team with that offensive profile score 90 in back-to-back games and 80-plus in four straight? Texas A&M leads the country in offensive rebounds (17.26) by a wide margin and limits turnovers (9.7). The Aggies aren’t always in — or winning — shootouts, which is where their sound defense (70.8 ppg) comes into play.
Conversely, the Cornhuskers are a highly efficient offense, led by four double-digit scorers, a few of whom are standout three-point shooters. Keisei Tominaga (14.9 ppg) shoots 37.2% from beyond the arc while Brice Williams (13.1 ppg) is a 39.2% shooter from deep. Nebraska’s 9.5 threes per game puts the team among the top shooting programs in the country.
The Cornhuskers shot 14-23 from the three-point line in their 88–72 upset of then-No. 1 Purdue in January — Tominaga was 5-9 from deep in that game. Nebraska allows roughly as many points per game (70.1) as Texas A&M and defends the arc especially well. Fred Hoiberg’s team, however, is not as strong on the boards.
Despite their different profiles, overs are abundant for both the Cornhuskers (21–11–1) and Aggies (21–13). Over Nebraska’s last 12 games, the over has hit eight times and overs are 11–2 in the last 13 for Texas A&M. In February and into March, these teams have scored at will and given up their fair share of points as well, specifically the Aggies. Bet on that trend to continue into the tournament.
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