Plus, I never need an excuse to back the Spartans, who are a nation-best 18-5-1 ATS this year. Tim Miles has done a tremendous job this year, even if the team is only 5-9 in league play.
Unfortunately, I don’t love the schematic matchup for San Jose State.
The Pack relentlessly run floppy in the half-court, putting their best shooters underneath the basket, running them around off-ball screens on the baseline and then cutting through the gaps.
The Spartans aren’t great at defending off-ball screening (.90 PPP allowed, 56th percentile, per Synergy) or cutting actions (1.23 PPP allowed, 30th percentile, per Synergy).
So, predictably, the Pack scored 21 points on 17 combined cutting and off-ball screen sets in their first head-to-head matchup with the Spartans on Jan. 18, suitable for a rock-solid 1.24 PPP (per Synergy).
On the other end of the court, San Jose State runs a lot of dribble handoff sets to find isolation switches. Unfortunately for the Spartans, Nevada does well defending against both actions (.69 ISO PPP allowed, 82nd percentile; .76 DHO PPP allowed, 67th percentile).
So, predictably, the Spartans had a tough time generating efficient offense in either set in the first matchup (combined 10 points on 14 sets, .71 PPP).
Nevada beat San Jose State by 11 on the road in that first matchup, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same result.
Then again, the result could’ve been different if the Spartans hadn’t had such a tough shooting night (8-for-27 from 3, 30%).
Ultimately, the situational spot points toward San Jose State, but the schematic matchup points toward Nevada, so I’ll ultimately pass on this game.
But if I had to pick a side, I’d take the points with the home pup that has been awesome against the spread and could be hunting for revenge after the first head-to-head loss.