Need Hedging Advice on Michigan St. at 100/1

Yep. Looks like I screwed the pooch on that one. It has been happening more and more lately.

If its any consolation, I type pretty fast so it wasn't a tremendous waste of time.

My parlay system was D.O.A....and further evidence that most people that write books should spend more time reading them.

Best of luck with everyone's picks....curious to see if anyone throws out any scenarios that will work...maybe some middling strategies on teasers, or halftime hedging.

Carry on gentlemen. Consider me checked.

FWIW.....The odds on each team to win the final are as follows....

1) MSU +800

2) Duke +300

3) UK -175

4) Wisconsin +400

IF your book would let you parlay futures with single game spreads, then it is possible. You could take both sides of the Duke/MSU game, then set up a wheel with 3 open parlays....if MSU wins outright, then create duplicate parlays with Duke out.

I will spare the scenarios after my previous debacle, I don't like to look like an azzhole twice in one thread, but you could hedge out the Duke risk using the futures, and the odds will be longer on the parlay.

Rovin56- who cares about the 5 grand? If you were in a position to successfully hedge and guarantee profit, then find the 5k and lock in the profit. Nothing "ludicrous" about that, even for a small bettor.

I have a friend that has Sparty at 100-1 too.   Sports Radio in Vegas mentioned how few tickets were written on sparty at 100-1,  so good job!

My Suggestion:  This is what I advised him.

Duke Money Line -240   $240 to win his $100 back.

If Michigan State wins, it will be the best $240 he ever lost.  But the likely scenario is Kentucky at probably -320 in the Final game verses Sparty.     So $3200 to win $1000.

Parlay the Duke ML tonight with these teams (seperate on the ML):

Spurs/Wiz

Bulls

Sharks

Then saturday, Hornets and Clippers....

Will get the juice well below -200.

I think MSU has a legit chance to win SU, and I agree with everyone thats its only $100 and letting it ride isnt that big of a deal.....HOWEVER, having a chance to gaurantee profit is RARE. Those that advise against hedging are crazy, especially in a 100-1 future bet. Might as well put a few hundred on the Duke ML and hope you lose those bets.....

bol and sweet future bet

IMO, I would do what you are suggesting but would also do a tease, i.e, Duke+2 and Whisky +12 then you may hit both. That is if you feel strong about Whisky + 12. Wouldn't that be great, Kentucky wins by 8 and MState wins by 1, then you win Ky, MSt and the tease. That sounds greedy doesn't it. Best of luck to you. I wish I had your problem to solve.