NIT

I guess I’m the only one on Xavier +4.5???

I bet on Texas A and M the whole ride… but …

1) They just played a horrible Wash St team/and competition the whole tournament wasn’t great..

2) Tex AM isn’t a shoot your lights out team.. offense could stall…

3) Xavier has well rounded players and are also playing hot right now

4) Xavier has been battle tested in this tournament while A and M hasn’t  really had to play from behind…

5) Yes A and M has a lot of energy but is their guard play THAT good??

6) Tex AM causes a lot of turnovers/ Xavier is more fundamentally sound and if they don’t get those turnovers that could lead to lower points scored…

7) I also hate betting on a team that has been killing it for 5 games.. Xavier had a couple scares in the tournament and are still the underdogs..plus coaching advantage for Xavier..

8) Overall as usual the public jumps on a hot team and never focuses on matchups.. It’s a championship game so both teams will go for broke which usually means a close score so give me the 4.5 on a championship game…

People have said I’m nuts for this pick… is it really that bad of a pick? Thoughts?/Tell your angle…

I'm surprised you're jumping off this A&M train.  Lots of people liked Washington State due to their height, offensive rebounding, and their ability to shoot the 3.  But you saw how A&M sped them up.  Coach Smith said it was impossible to prepare for.  You just have to see it and make your adjustments in the 2H he said.  Wake Forest had an efficient offense all year and A&M sped them up and turned them over as well. 

A&M's offense will be good enough.  Xavier's defense hasn't been lights out.  Bonnies and Vandy were highly efficient vs them.  If A&M can put up 82 vs that Arkansas stellar D, they can muster up something vs this Xavier defense.  They beat two tournament teams leading up to the NIT and Xavier barely got passed Cleveland State and should have lost to Vandy.  Xavier looked good vs the Bonnies but the Bonnie's defense didnt play great vs Colorado or OK and A&M is just a different defensive beast. Xavier has not seen anything like it.  Last 2 games Xavier turned it over 10 times and vs Florida they turned it over 18 times with Scruggs. A&M can do the same or better minus their best player and another ball handler.

Coaching advantage?  Buzz vs interim coach Jonas Hayes?  Xavier couldn't get the inbound in vs Vandy.  Why were they inbounding it towards the corner?  Buzz is the greater, sweatier coach man.  As far as the matchups, we saw how A&M handled the size difference.  Just throw doubles off non shooters and make Nunge or the bigs throw it out of bounds.  The backcourt for A&M is bigger and more athletic.  Kunkel should get locked up.  And if Nunge wants to hang out on the perimeter, they'll have a longer more athletic guy to challenge him...and then gang rebound like they have been.

I see some heads liking Xavier so you're not alone.  The line is kinda shaded that way at pinnacle so maybe you guys can push it to -4 for me lol.  I think A&M will win this going away...towards double digits.

No it’s not I could def see a really close game 

am has been winning with hustle and defense … 

But Xavier is playing really well and despite a couple rough stretches they can hang with anyone … 

Also they beat Vanderbilt and vandy beat am which doesn’t mean anything but it shows they can hang 

thing that scares me a little is they kept going down by 8-10 to vandy and having to comeback 

if that happens against am might be tough cause of their defense they have been playing 

Thanks for the responses… yeah I shouldn’t have said coaching advantage… the guys are playing for themselves.. which can be powerful… but the bet is in and I think I’m on the wrong side..Only hope is if X can hang in there around 10 points and steal a couple buckets at the end to cover:( or a couple long scoring droughts for A and M.. I guess I played it as more of a train has to slow down after awhile .. but this train most likely won’t stop until A and M wins it.. I think I was also sold on Xaviers resiliency last game.. but yeah .. not liking this bet…

I mean if you think about it they both lost last game of season then won 4 straight so they both are riding the train … but yeah Texas AM had a nice run in the conference Tourny as well 

As said above by Spartan, many here picked WSU…WSU are battle-tested road warriors, they’re athletic…now they’re horrible…go figure.

Xavier can play and definitely has a shot to win, but have also struggled with the likes of Butler and DePaul.  Although I don’t get why A&M-WSU opened a pick, and this opened 4.5.  Think Xavier definitely better than WSU.

Riding Texas A&M again.  Good luck all. 

TAM all day

@SpartanG

Aggies shot 51% from the field and 53% from downtown against the razorbacks

-Superior Schedule Defense Theory-

   Texas A&M fits a +6.5 ( advantage) Superior Schedule defensive system of mine. Yes Xavier beat St Bonnies 84-77. Bonnies offense  was not able to take advantage of Xaviers 85-90 ppg road defense once they got behind and because Xaviers recent road offense scored 80 per game ..they just over powered Bonnie out of the gate and Bonnie wasnt able to catch up.

    My theory as to Bonnies upset of Virginia, Oklahoma and Colorado as dogs.( no team in these matchups possessed  a superior schedule defense)  All three opp's  had typically the same defense and the same scoring offense which meant tight games especially Virginia( not the same team as years before) but always played tight games ( see vs N.Texas 2 pt win)  Bonnies vs Vir get the win in the final minutes with a couple clutch 3 pointers. Now Bonnies off 3 dog  upsets are now installed as favs..? then they face a team in X with double the offensive output  65 vs 80  that had the horses to put it in the basket. I even missed that game and went with Bonnies because I was sold on them taking advantage of X's 85-90 defense, live and learn. 

My theory with Wash St +2 @ BYU and why they shutdown a 90 ppg home offense.. the best home court in the land and couldn't even come close to beating Texas A&M. In the game vs BYU Wash St was a +9.5  superior schedule Pac 12 defense ( 64). Simply put, BYU beat up on the cupcakes in their recent form last 4-5 game home series scoring 90 ppg vs UNI / Long beach / Pepper twice / LMary twice/ USD.( go take a look @ BYU schedule) However, when they went up against the better squads in their conf..hardly could get past 65 ppg. Its all about SOS defense.  So now Wash St goes on the road again after that 20 pt win vs phony BYU and now the superior schedule tables are turned to Texas A&M with their +5.5 superior scheduled 64 defense last 4 road games ( not home).. the outcome  Texas rolls. ( and most a thought, even me, Wash St, the so called road warriors with their so called  athletes etc would beat Texas A&M.

   Strength of Schedule defense is important to handicap in these games. I actually went against my own system with 3 plays. BYU/ and Wash St twice ( still trying to figure it out on the fly) made a 55 unit mistake. We all know hindsight is 20/20. However, in this business..You need to learn how you lost , in order to correct the mistakes and file them, so that when you come upon the system again. You will know what to do.

   Case in point: I have Texas AM -4  a +6.5 SS defense vs a team in Xavier who just beat  a weak offensively challenged negative SOS team in St Bonnies. A team in Xavier who prior to their last road win vs a weak St Bonny, lost to Butler 82-90/ lost to St.Johns 66-81/ lost to Provo 92-100 and are a garbage road team defensively giving up 85-90 ppg vs these teams. 

Case in Point: I have a 21-11 team Fresno St -3/ML (whatever you chose to do) as a +10 SS defense (64) vs Coastal Carolina. I have both flat and parlayed..will see what happens

    A good book to get in capping these types of SS defensive system scenarios: J.R Millers. How Pros beat the Pro-Football point spreads( uses the same methods as CBB). Separate home /away stats and with NC games all away/road stats for both clubs playing ea other as we are in now.

    My advice: make a copy of Sagarins College Basketball Ratings starting Jan 1st to the present day in a large spiral  notebook. Keep Team A and Team B home /away off and def scores using a 3-4 game series format. We do this in order  to determine the point  differential of ea. club prior to the game in question by adding the total offense and adding the total defense in their last 3-4 gm series.( keep the 4 game series separate from the 3 game series..but on the same page under one another.

    Once you have that you will be able to see if team A and team B posses a negative or positive point differential. With the road team add 3 pts for each road game ( because they were @ a 3 pt disadvantage for ea gm on the road ) , with the home team you subtract 3 points for ea. home game because they were at a 3pt advantage for ea home game weather its 3 game series or 4 game series. The 3 game series calculation is the recent form tightener.

     Reason being, and unlike now in the tournament,  games are spread out because the team may have played 3 road games prior to coming back home and you need that 3 game series format to judge what they did in that recent series. With neutral court games all away/road stats in a 3-4 game format. Use the Sagarins ratings to list each teams opponents power rating in that 3-4 game series at the date the game was played  so that you can come up with an average of what caliber of competition or schedule each team is playing within that recent form 3-4 game series

Example:

Texas A&M last 4 road opp

Aub    67-62  ( 89)

Ark    82-64  (87)

Tenn  50-65 ( 90)

WST  72-56 (83)

as you can see in this game model we will add all of TAM offense and add defense, then you will subtract TAM off from defense

271-247 = 24 positive point differential)..now we add 3 pts for each road game(12) =36 pos, pt diff)  Divide 36 by 4 games = 9pts 

Now we add all of TAM opponents power ratings ( sagarins) at the date the game was played from the Sagarin Chart you've kept copies of,, so you can go back to that date and see what that rating was of that particular team

89+87+90+83= 349. ( divide the 349 by 4 and you have an 87 AOPR ( average opponent power rating)

add the 9 pts to that 87 AOPR and you have 96..thats TAM road rating in their 4 game road series that you will compare to Xaviers calculations) 

What youre computing is your own line. TAM is beating their AOPR of 87 by 9 ppg giving them a 96 road rating

How to evaluate team off/def scoring within a series

Lets look at TAM offense in their 4 gm road series 271 div by 4 is 67..However we need to get a better than just dividing 4..thats to easy...so we use the high /low approach. 

We take the highest off. score of 82 and the lowest off score of 50. and eliminate them. Then take the 2 other scores of 67 & 72 add them and div by 2 and that will give you a better indication of their ave off in that 4 gm series. 69..we will say 70 Same can be done with the 3 gm series

Now lets do the defense..and this is "Key" take the highest of 65 and the lowest 56 and eliminate them. Youre left with 62 and 64 ..add them div by 2 and you now have TAM def in that 4 gm series a 63. 

so you now have TAM off @ 70 and def @ 63  ( a defense vs an AOPR of 87)

Xaviers last 4 road opp's 

Opp / X's PF/PA / Opp rating

Provo 92-100   (84)

StJohns 66-81  (82)

Butler 82-90  (77)

StBonn 84-77  (81.5)

324-349  AOPR (81)

324-349 + -25( negative pt differential) add 3pts for ea. rd game (12) = (-13) div by 4 = ( -3)

Notice Xaviers AOPR @ 81 and compare it to TAM AOPR of 87 and you have TAM @ +6 Sup Schedule in that 4 gm series

Xavier is losing to an AOPR by 3 ppg giving them a 78 road rating. Compare that # to TAM 96 road rating and you have diff of +18 advantage TAM

Xavier average offense 83 / Defense 85  vs a weaker AOPR than TAM's AOPR ( same calculations for the 3 game series) do the math

Predicted score calculations

Xavier 83--85

Texas AM 70-63

What we want to do to get a predicted score is add Xaviers offense to TAM defesne 83+63 and subtract 70( 70 is the ave score of all CBB basketball games imo)

Xaviers predicted offense in this game 76

Now take TAM off of 70 and add it to Xaviers defesne of 85 - 70 = 85

   We have predicted score of 85-76 which is 9pts on paper.. which is 4.5 pts greater  than what the spread is. Now we add in the fact that TAM has a +6 SS def ( 4gm series) and a / +6.5 SS defense ( 3gm series) going up Xaviers 83 offense vs weaker Competition and couldnt even muster up a win in their last 4 road games before St Bonnie vs Butler / St Johns ? 

    I have the predicted score greater than what we have here only because once the human factor comes into play..The +6.5 Superior Schedule D of TAM and the that garbage defense of Xavier will show its true colors

I have Texas AM by 15-20 over Xavier. 

Awesome Wizerguy. Great pattern to fall back on instead of the usual coinflip or following other cappers blindly. Good Luck to You 

GL MLMav   I'm against you but this should be a great game. I can't jump off the A&M train but -4.5 points is a lot in a championship game 

It’s gambling so anything can happen.

but clearly Texas A&M is the better team. They’ve been hot, determined… so why jump off a bandwagon that’s paying?

Plus A&M plays a lot tougher opponents. 
Tenn, Auburn, Ark, Bama, Kentucky & TCU. All tournament teams. I think if Xavier had this schedule wouldn’t see them here ..

Just another method to look at some #'s using power ratings and margin of victory vs caliber of competition. Definitely need those Sagarins ratings and have copies of previous ratings to look back on to see what each teams opponents rating was at time of game in order to get the AOPR..thats key

If you look at sportswagering as gambling and anything can happen..youre a gambler and shouldn't be betting your hard earned $. If you look at sportswagering as  investing in the probable out comes of games using the steady plotting approach. Then you have a better educated guess as to what's going to happen..rather than thinking "anything" can happen. When your thinking is based on "anything can happen" Thats like flipping a coin with no study or work involved. 

Nice W.G. Xiaver was hammered with bets when the line went to 5 dropped too fast for me to get a bet in from +4.4 +$100, -$105 now back to +4.5 -$110. I think Xmen are much, much more talented but AM is playing with so much energy and 10 man rotation. Boards should belong to Xiaver and being from the Big East should serve them well as WSU shrunk like a lily coming out of the PAC12 but Xiaver is battle tough and the world is giving away points with a poor shooting and terrible defensive rebounding team. Xmen do a nice job protecting the basketball and should be stronger on ball and grabbing offensive rebounds and finishing vs shorty AM team. GL with your bets, hoping the five pops again about 5 minutes before tip

@FRANKtheBANKss  Nice job Frank...you're a savvy veteran. 

The methods I use above can work. However, we can never win them all. Read Franks post on the game. His take on the game was excellent. If you look at the model above you can see that regardless of A&Ms defense. As FrankTheBankss pointed out in his post.. Xavier's 3pt shooting and 80 + ppg were key. Texas didn't have an answer

Nice win Xavier side.. gotta learn to trust my instincts… Mcnasty on tik tok called me crazy for the Xavier pick... lol 

lets get crazier…

womens…

Louisville +8

Uconn ML…. I’m feeling this pick