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#1
Wagers:None
Leans: *Duke +4… Pitt’s 1st of 2 games this year to be played vs a top 10 team. Duke has already played against 2 top 10 teams (Ari & Mich). **Charleston +4… Don’t forget this William & Mary squad is the same squad that lost by 37pts to West Virginia & 17pts to Hofstra & Wichita St. W&M is 5-1-1 as a road dog this year, but at home they have only been favored by more than -1 just 2 times this year. Can’t play though because Charleston can’t defend the 3 ball which is where W&M will look to score… **Towson -10… Feed the ball to Jerrelle Benimon and look out. But -10pts, I don’t know about all that. But then I realize that Hofstra has not covered in 2 of their last 3 when catching +9.5 or more. Hofstra looked absolutely like garbage though in the 2H of their last game vs Northeastern a game in which they let the Huskies get score better than 1.23 points per possession. That’s scary!!! *Norfolk St +2.5… **Villanova -5.5… Syracuse proved that solid defense and slow tempo could be rewarded vs Nova & Creighton proved that light’s out shooting can beat anyone at anytime as they did vs Nova. As much as Georgetown’s defense can be respected, they have now lost 4 games in a row, 3 of which were by double digits in regulation time, including 2 at home to Seton Hall & Marquette. If this doesn’t set the record straight then I don’t know what will. Nova can get you from inside and beyond the 3 point line with just about every player on their squad, not to mention defend the 2pt% shot like no other (#8). That’s were most of Georgetown’s points come from (#96 in 2pt scoring distribution). Nova’s 2 losses seen teams shoot 28 for 48 from 3 point land. Nova won this game on the road last year forcing 27 fouls as Pinskton was nearly an unstoppable force in the paint. Nova brings back pretty much the same team from last year and IMO a much better team… *Oklahoma +4… Both teams won their home court match ups last season vs each other. Okie St can’t have Marcus Smart be a no show in this game and expect to win like they did the last game… *Lafayette -2.5… Someone thinks so. Was a pk em last night and now is a -2.5. Maybe dig around and see what you can find as to why it may have moved so much… *Texas Southern -12.5… **Portland St over 151… Portland St has played just 1 team inside the top 100 in tempo. That game seen 168 points scored vs Portland. Portland was the #96 tempo and had the #138 overall defense. EWU is the #14 tempo and holds the #280 rated overall defense. If this isn’t excellent news than I’m missing something because it turns out that Portland St’s defense is rated #328. It’s no shock that 2 teams that don’t play much defense are both losers vs the spread at 5-9-1ats(EWU) and 5-8ats(Portland St), yet both teams favor the over at 8-6(EWU) & 6-5(Portland St). Last game between these 2 seen 169 points scored in regulation... |
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