11/25 Results: No comments, other than the ugly Wisconsin game yesterday. Wow. How atrocious was that to watch? Short on Time.
Sides: 13-2, +14.80
Totals: 4-1, +2.90
DNP: 6-5
11/26 Notes: First conference game of the year tips off today with Siena going to Rider. Rider has played well this year and Siena has not, although Siena’s schedule has been a bit tougher. Siena’s Clarence Jackson is coming off a horrendous game against Butler largely due in part to Butler’s defense and he should rebound today. I think Siena has only lost 3 conference games dating back 2 or 3 years, but they were heavy favorites in the conference those years. Rider is playing its first conference game without any Thompson on the court. I value Siena at the #2 slot in the conference and Rider at the #5 but the conference is pretty even unlike the past few years. I will sit this one out, but there is value on Siena here. Louisiana Tech takes a 5-1 mark into Arkansas Little Rock for their fourth straight road game. Arky LR returns 90% of its offense from a year ago on a squad that actually had a winning record at home despite failing to win a single road or neutral court game. Arky LR playing with a bit of revenge here as La Tech beat them by 20+ last year and they did beat ISU at home this year and I rank ISU slightly better than Tech. Still, Tech has the best player on the court, and while the home squad is the only team I could target here, I can’t do it for that fact. I will however, take a flyer on the total going under. Louisiana Tech has had the luxury of playing some high paced squads and squads with little or no defensive ability. With the early start time and the fourth straight road game I expect their scoring to not continue, along with the revenge angle thrown in. In this matchup last year, both teams shot above 50% and there was over 50 FT’s attempted. Louisiana Tech was on fire in the 1H en route to a 50 point half and that was with Magnum Rolle. I would expect the intensity in this game to be at a high, and both defenses to show that they’re better than the respective offenses with both squads scoring in the 60’s...
0
11/25 Results: No comments, other than the ugly Wisconsin game yesterday. Wow. How atrocious was that to watch? Short on Time.
Sides: 13-2, +14.80
Totals: 4-1, +2.90
DNP: 6-5
11/26 Notes: First conference game of the year tips off today with Siena going to Rider. Rider has played well this year and Siena has not, although Siena’s schedule has been a bit tougher. Siena’s Clarence Jackson is coming off a horrendous game against Butler largely due in part to Butler’s defense and he should rebound today. I think Siena has only lost 3 conference games dating back 2 or 3 years, but they were heavy favorites in the conference those years. Rider is playing its first conference game without any Thompson on the court. I value Siena at the #2 slot in the conference and Rider at the #5 but the conference is pretty even unlike the past few years. I will sit this one out, but there is value on Siena here. Louisiana Tech takes a 5-1 mark into Arkansas Little Rock for their fourth straight road game. Arky LR returns 90% of its offense from a year ago on a squad that actually had a winning record at home despite failing to win a single road or neutral court game. Arky LR playing with a bit of revenge here as La Tech beat them by 20+ last year and they did beat ISU at home this year and I rank ISU slightly better than Tech. Still, Tech has the best player on the court, and while the home squad is the only team I could target here, I can’t do it for that fact. I will however, take a flyer on the total going under. Louisiana Tech has had the luxury of playing some high paced squads and squads with little or no defensive ability. With the early start time and the fourth straight road game I expect their scoring to not continue, along with the revenge angle thrown in. In this matchup last year, both teams shot above 50% and there was over 50 FT’s attempted. Louisiana Tech was on fire in the 1H en route to a 50 point half and that was with Magnum Rolle. I would expect the intensity in this game to be at a high, and both defenses to show that they’re better than the respective offenses with both squads scoring in the 60’s...
...Arkansas and UAB should be a pretty good matchup. While Arkansas hasn’t really played anybody yet worth mentioning, they do have one important thing here and that is revenge. Last year (actually Jan 2010) at home they led with 2 seconds to go before UAB caught a pass and drove to the hoop for a winning dunk and a one point win. In that game Millsap led UAB with scoring with 22 points and he has since departed. Arkansas has the size and talent up front to matchup with a UAB team more focused on its frontcourt than in past years. My only concern is that Marshawn Powell is still hampered by a broken foot as he is an all-conference forward. If Powell were to play at 100%, I would give Arkansas a distinct advantage here and probably place a larger bet. My gut says he plays, so I'm just going to leave it at a small unit size. Could be a mistake, but the risk/reward at 1 unit is worth my time. While Wright State will always bring the defensive intensity, they have no big men worth speaking of. They are decent at the guard spot, but Richmond has probably the greatest advantage of any team in terms of matchups that I have seen thus far this year. Richmond plays even at the PG and wing slots, and is 100x better in the post. Wright State hasn’t seen a squad this good on the inside all year. Two key points that really benefit Richmond here: 1) Wright State returned the services of Evans at PG last game after an injury kept him out, I doubt his conditioning is up to full speed and he gets the task of guarding last year’s player of the year in the A-10, Anderson, and 2) Wright State is coming off a game in which they had to fight tooth and nail to come back from a 14 point deficit in the 2H. I rarely lay chalk this high, but this situation almost warrants it. Neither Northern Colorado or Valpo play defense, but neither is shooting the three ball particularly well this year despite launching at every opportunity. I know nothing about Mercer, but WCU I expect to take a giant leap backwards this year with the loss of multiple seniors who logged many minutes. UCLA should look a lot better against a team it has matchup advantages and a slower pace. I hate playing high profile games but I’m going to take a stab at Tennessee today. I really like their full court pressure, and they have some size advantages that should cause Villanova some trouble. On the other side, Villanova isn’t really the type of team that scares me in a half-court defense setting. Yes, Nova has much more experience playing in the Garden but they’re only 13-12 while playing there. Villanova has a decent advantage at the guard spot, but Tennessee has a big advantage down low. It should be an entertaining game, and I think Tennessee comes out on top. They’ve shown great resilience with all the off-court hoopla going on, and they’re almost taking an “us against the world” approach to it. They know they’re the underdogs here, they should respond well.
Bets
Tennessee +5.5 (2 Unit)
La Tech/Arky LR Under 138 (1 Unit)
Arkansas -3 (1 Unit)
DNP: Richmond -8, Siena +4
GL
0
...Arkansas and UAB should be a pretty good matchup. While Arkansas hasn’t really played anybody yet worth mentioning, they do have one important thing here and that is revenge. Last year (actually Jan 2010) at home they led with 2 seconds to go before UAB caught a pass and drove to the hoop for a winning dunk and a one point win. In that game Millsap led UAB with scoring with 22 points and he has since departed. Arkansas has the size and talent up front to matchup with a UAB team more focused on its frontcourt than in past years. My only concern is that Marshawn Powell is still hampered by a broken foot as he is an all-conference forward. If Powell were to play at 100%, I would give Arkansas a distinct advantage here and probably place a larger bet. My gut says he plays, so I'm just going to leave it at a small unit size. Could be a mistake, but the risk/reward at 1 unit is worth my time. While Wright State will always bring the defensive intensity, they have no big men worth speaking of. They are decent at the guard spot, but Richmond has probably the greatest advantage of any team in terms of matchups that I have seen thus far this year. Richmond plays even at the PG and wing slots, and is 100x better in the post. Wright State hasn’t seen a squad this good on the inside all year. Two key points that really benefit Richmond here: 1) Wright State returned the services of Evans at PG last game after an injury kept him out, I doubt his conditioning is up to full speed and he gets the task of guarding last year’s player of the year in the A-10, Anderson, and 2) Wright State is coming off a game in which they had to fight tooth and nail to come back from a 14 point deficit in the 2H. I rarely lay chalk this high, but this situation almost warrants it. Neither Northern Colorado or Valpo play defense, but neither is shooting the three ball particularly well this year despite launching at every opportunity. I know nothing about Mercer, but WCU I expect to take a giant leap backwards this year with the loss of multiple seniors who logged many minutes. UCLA should look a lot better against a team it has matchup advantages and a slower pace. I hate playing high profile games but I’m going to take a stab at Tennessee today. I really like their full court pressure, and they have some size advantages that should cause Villanova some trouble. On the other side, Villanova isn’t really the type of team that scares me in a half-court defense setting. Yes, Nova has much more experience playing in the Garden but they’re only 13-12 while playing there. Villanova has a decent advantage at the guard spot, but Tennessee has a big advantage down low. It should be an entertaining game, and I think Tennessee comes out on top. They’ve shown great resilience with all the off-court hoopla going on, and they’re almost taking an “us against the world” approach to it. They know they’re the underdogs here, they should respond well.
...Arkansas and UAB should be a pretty good matchup. While Arkansas hasn’t really played anybody yet worth mentioning, they do have one important thing here and that is revenge. Last year (actually Jan 2010) at home they led with 2 seconds to go before UAB caught a pass and drove to the hoop for a winning dunk and a one point win. In that game Millsap led UAB with scoring with 22 points and he has since departed. Arkansas has the size and talent up front to matchup with a UAB team more focused on its frontcourt than in past years. My only concern is that Marshawn Powell is still hampered by a broken foot as he is an all-conference forward. If Powell were to play at 100%, I would give Arkansas a distinct advantage here and probably place a larger bet. My gut says he plays, so I'm just going to leave it at a small unit size. Could be a mistake, but the risk/reward at 1 unit is worth my time. While Wright State will always bring the defensive intensity, they have no big men worth speaking of. They are decent at the guard spot, but Richmond has probably the greatest advantage of any team in terms of matchups that I have seen thus far this year. Richmond plays even at the PG and wing slots, and is 100x better in the post. Wright State hasn’t seen a squad this good on the inside all year. Two key points that really benefit Richmond here: 1) Wright State returned the services of Evans at PG last game after an injury kept him out, I doubt his conditioning is up to full speed and he gets the task of guarding last year’s player of the year in the A-10, Anderson, and 2) Wright State is coming off a game in which they had to fight tooth and nail to come back from a 14 point deficit in the 2H. I rarely lay chalk this high, but this situation almost warrants it. Neither Northern Colorado or Valpo play defense, but neither is shooting the three ball particularly well this year despite launching at every opportunity. I know nothing about Mercer, but WCU I expect to take a giant leap backwards this year with the loss of multiple seniors who logged many minutes. UCLA should look a lot better against a team it has matchup advantages and a slower pace. I hate playing high profile games but I’m going to take a stab at Tennessee today. I really like their full court pressure, and they have some size advantages that should cause Villanova some trouble. On the other side, Villanova isn’t really the type of team that scares me in a half-court defense setting. Yes, Nova has much more experience playing in the Garden but they’re only 13-12 while playing there. Villanova has a decent advantage at the guard spot, but Tennessee has a big advantage down low. It should be an entertaining game, and I think Tennessee comes out on top. They’ve shown great resilience with all the off-court hoopla going on, and they’re almost taking an “us against the world” approach to it. They know they’re the underdogs here, they should respond well.
Bets
Tennessee +5.5 (2 Unit)
La Tech/Arky LR Under 138 (1 Unit)
Arkansas -3 (1 Unit)
DNP: Richmond -8, Siena +4
GL
0
...Arkansas and UAB should be a pretty good matchup. While Arkansas hasn’t really played anybody yet worth mentioning, they do have one important thing here and that is revenge. Last year (actually Jan 2010) at home they led with 2 seconds to go before UAB caught a pass and drove to the hoop for a winning dunk and a one point win. In that game Millsap led UAB with scoring with 22 points and he has since departed. Arkansas has the size and talent up front to matchup with a UAB team more focused on its frontcourt than in past years. My only concern is that Marshawn Powell is still hampered by a broken foot as he is an all-conference forward. If Powell were to play at 100%, I would give Arkansas a distinct advantage here and probably place a larger bet. My gut says he plays, so I'm just going to leave it at a small unit size. Could be a mistake, but the risk/reward at 1 unit is worth my time. While Wright State will always bring the defensive intensity, they have no big men worth speaking of. They are decent at the guard spot, but Richmond has probably the greatest advantage of any team in terms of matchups that I have seen thus far this year. Richmond plays even at the PG and wing slots, and is 100x better in the post. Wright State hasn’t seen a squad this good on the inside all year. Two key points that really benefit Richmond here: 1) Wright State returned the services of Evans at PG last game after an injury kept him out, I doubt his conditioning is up to full speed and he gets the task of guarding last year’s player of the year in the A-10, Anderson, and 2) Wright State is coming off a game in which they had to fight tooth and nail to come back from a 14 point deficit in the 2H. I rarely lay chalk this high, but this situation almost warrants it. Neither Northern Colorado or Valpo play defense, but neither is shooting the three ball particularly well this year despite launching at every opportunity. I know nothing about Mercer, but WCU I expect to take a giant leap backwards this year with the loss of multiple seniors who logged many minutes. UCLA should look a lot better against a team it has matchup advantages and a slower pace. I hate playing high profile games but I’m going to take a stab at Tennessee today. I really like their full court pressure, and they have some size advantages that should cause Villanova some trouble. On the other side, Villanova isn’t really the type of team that scares me in a half-court defense setting. Yes, Nova has much more experience playing in the Garden but they’re only 13-12 while playing there. Villanova has a decent advantage at the guard spot, but Tennessee has a big advantage down low. It should be an entertaining game, and I think Tennessee comes out on top. They’ve shown great resilience with all the off-court hoopla going on, and they’re almost taking an “us against the world” approach to it. They know they’re the underdogs here, they should respond well.
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